Iranian Alert -- DAY 28 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Live Thread Ping List | 7.7.2003 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

In less than 2 days (July 9th) the people of Iran are planning massive demonstrations events and strikes.

On this date, 4 years ago, the regime brutally attacked peaceful student demonstrators while in their dorms. The result was the loss of life and liberty of hundreds of students, many of which are still unaccounted for.

Once again, the regime has been threatening a major crackdown on the protesters. A major confrontation is just days away.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a country. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Thanks for all the help.

DoctorZin

[Texas_Dawg]

23 hours and 10 minutes until July 9th, 2003, in Tehran, Iran.

[Eala]

Just a reminder:

Major demonstrations planned in Support of Iranian Students

Date: Wed. July 9, 2003 Time: 10:00 Location: US Capital Square, In front of Capital Building, West Front area Source: contact: 800-662-8196 or www.tazahorat.org In Attendence: Senator Sam Brownback, Senator Brad Sherman and others.

Support Iranian Students In Their Quest For Freedom & Democracy

The young people are investing their lives for freedom in Iran. All they are asking from you is to invest only a few hours of your time.

On July 9th, 2003, the fourth anniversary of the Islamic Regime's savage massacre of the university Students in Iran, the Coalition for the Pro-democracy Iranian groups in cooperation with International Harmony are organizing a demonstration in solidarity with Iranian student's Struggle for freedom. the demonstration of July 9, 2003 will focus on the Islamic Regime's denial of unalienable rights of Iranian people to liberty, justice and the pursuit of happiness. The demonstration of July 9, 2003 in Washington D.C. will also place emphasis on condemning the Iranian Regime's cardinal standing in sponsoring radical Islamic Ideology and International acts of Terroism.

Place: The United States Capitol Square, Capitol Building, West Front Area. Washington D.C.

TIME: 10:00 AM, Wednesday July 9, 2003

Senators Sherman, and Brownback said they will be in attendence to speak to a very large mix of Iranian-Americans and other supporters of Democracy in Iran.

Satellite Television has reported other Demonstrations initiated by Iranian-Americans in Houston, Dallas, San Diego, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Seattle, Chicago, most countries in Europe, and Australia. All groups of people will be in attendence to show their vocal support.

Here a couple they announced today:

Los Angeles July 8th 6pm front of Federal Building in Westwood for more information 818-355-3747

Atlanta Tuesday July 8th CNN Center From 5-9 with live Music

Charlotte July 8th 4pm in front of the Federal Court House

Chicago Wednesday July 9th 6-9pm Michigan Street

Seattle Tuesday July 8th 6-8pm 15 & 45th street - Univ of Washington.

Houston Tuesday July 8th 6-8pm 2300 Between St. Phillip and Westernet

Texas July 8th at 630pm in front of the Capital Building

New York July 9th 11-2pm 1st and 47th for more information 718-445-9761

Miami July 9th 12-5pm Aside British Embassy at Bayside Park

Austin, TX July 8th at 630pm J8 in front of the Capital Building for more information 512-789-7076

San Diego Sunday July 6th Federal Building Front Street & Broadway from 5-9pm

Houston Sunday July 6th Muslim Community Center (Guy said symbolic gesture to the Mullahs) from 6-8pm

Germany Berlin Date: Sat. July 5, 2003 Time: 12:00-15:30 Location: Podbielskiallee 65 (U1, metro line 1) Source: contact: various

Frankfort Date: Sat. July 5, 2003 Time: 11:00 Location: Bocken heimer warte (in front of Frankfort University) Source: contact: www.Ebram@T-online.de

Sweden Stockholm Date: Wednesday. July 9, 2003 Time: 17.00 (swedish time) Location: Sergelstorg, Stockholm City Source: various

Denmark Copenhagen Date: Wed. July 9, 2003 Time: 16:00 Location: In front of In front of Iran Embassy Source: contact: +45-5160-3121

Spain Barcelona Date: Wed. July 9, 2003 Time: 10:00-12:00 Location: Plaza Sant Jaume Source: SMCCDI

United Kingdom London Date: Wed. July 9, 2003 Time: 2pm to 4pm Location: No 10 Downing Street, London (near Westminster station) Source: contact:07957 212 890 - 07958 313 397

Belgium Brussel Date: Mon 23 June, 2003 Time: 14:00-16:00 Location: In Iran Embassy, Av tervuren 415 , 1150 Bruxelles Source: contact: dfrdi@hotmail.com

Date: Tue. July 8, 2003 Time: 14:00-18:00 Location: In front of European Union Building Source: contact: dfrdi@hotmail.com

France Paris Date: Wed. July 9, 2003 Time: 19:00-23:00 Location: Place Iena, Main Square of the City Source: SMCCDI

Paris Date: Sat. July 12, 2003 Time: 15:00-19:00 Location: Place Odeon Source: SMCCDI

[nuconvert]

Great. Thanks so much for your dedication. I would know little without your thread. We're grateful to you for letting the Iranian people know that we support their cause and are trying to help.
I hope the breaking news you report includes the breaking down of the regime.

[DoctorZIn]

Saving Iran From Itself

James Jay Carafano

According to "realist" international-relations theory, nations will act in their own self-interest. Iranian leaders who are pushing to provide their country with the option to "go nuclear" don't seem to get the idea.

Virtually every nation that has fielded a nuclear weapon has done so to counter a perceived threat. Iran seems to want to be the exception. And arming itself with nukes isn't merely unnecessary; it could do irreparable harm to its international standing and strategic security.

Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) show that Iran has pushed the legal limit and gone a bit beyond what's permissible for a peaceful nuclear research effort. It seems pretty clear that the Iranians are trying to develop enough expertise and capacity to switch from a legitimate program to producing fissile material for nuclear weapons in very short order.

Tehran's nuclear research program makes absolutely no sense from an economic or environmental standpoint. Iran has more than enough petroleum to meet its domestic and export needs, and plenty of natural gas is available if anyone's worried about air pollution.

Nuclear weapons make even less sense from a strategic point of view. Iran is arguably much safer than it was a decade ago. The Soviet bear has been declawed. Russia's military poses no threat. The Taliban is gone, and a friendly warlord sits on the Afghan-Iranian border. Saddam Hussein (search), who once led an invasion of Iran, has been deposed. Turkey certainly isn't interested in attacking Iran. Even Israel may make peace with the Palestinian Authority (search), leaving Iran scant justification for portraying that conflict as a causus belli.

Ironically, all these developments can in great part be attributed to the policies of the United States -- which, it can be argued, has done more to make the world safe for Iran than all the mullahs in Tehran.

Iranians might argue that they have to defend themselves against the United States. After all, the president did list their country as part of an axis of evil. But Iran is on the list only because it has backed terrorists and pursued weapons of mass destruction (search). With the Baathist Party out of power in Iraq and peace close to breaking out in Palestine, support for terrorism as a means to advance Iranian interest makes little sense. And a nuclear weapons program, which is more likely to gain Washington's ire than its indifference, doesn't seem like a good idea for a country that wants to enhance its security.

A nuclear program would be logical only if Iran wants a stick that it can use to bully neighbors and raise its standing in the Islamic world. But wait, Pakistan tried that route. All it managed to achieve was a nuclear standoff that threatens to kill millions of people if somebody makes a mistake or gets an itchy trigger finger.

Even if Iran builds a nuclear capability, it can rest assured that, like North Korea (search), it will get more attention from the United States than it wants. It also will risk isolating itself diplomatically and economically from the nations that can help meet the aspirations of young Iranians who wish to see their country grow and prosper.

That said, Iran's leaders have time to come to their senses. If they decided to build a bomb tomorrow, it would take time to produce the fissile material (search), assemble a workable weapon, and marry it to a reliable delivery system. By that time, there may be enough missile-defense systems to make their nuclear threat seem fairly timid.

In the meantime, an Iranian regime may emerge that recognizes that expensive nuclear programs that waste national treasure and provide no added security are a poor bargain. Other nations, including Brazil, South Africa and South Korea managed to do the math right and scrap their nuclear ambitions. Perhaps Iran will as well.

The United States has made the Middle East safe for Iran. It also has the power to make the regime in Tehran feel a lot less secure if it pushes for the nuclear option. Now is the time for a little realistic thinking. Iran should immediately adopt the IAEA protocols and follow the spirit as well as the letter of these prohibitions against developing nuclear arms. Better yet, Tehran would be wise to abolish its nuclear program altogether -- and make Iran safe from itself.

James Jay Carafano is a senior research fellow for defense and homeland security at The Heritage Foundation.

http://www.iran-daneshjoo.org/cgi-bin/smccdinews/viewnews.cgi?category=5&id=1057600210

[AdmSmith]

Thanks for your work, I know that you spend many hours every day on this.

[GoLightly]

What happend to the scheduled concerts? Seems to me that any & every gathering like that (even if it's begun as a government sanctioned counter to protests) could be useful. Course, they could also be traps.

If the government is expected to shut down phones (electricty?), I might have signs prepared demanding their being turned back on. The additional repression can also be an additional spark.

"Give the people their Voice" "Give the people their phones"

[DoctorZIn]

...What happend to the scheduled concerts?...

They are having them. It is attracting some. The people of Iran have not been allowed such concerts under the present regime. But I have heard reports of people singing the old national anthem at the concerts. It is a type of protest.

[nuconvert]

I thought people should read this again.

"I have never walked on your flag, I have never burnt it.
I said once, they painted your sacred flag on the entry of the campus I go! I swear I have never walked on it, I jumped over in winter on ice, in fall in rainy days, in summer.
What or who forced me to jump? you? your government? your movies? your culture? I doubt, it was me, my mind!
The respect you pay to your flag forced me to do so.
I hung one flag of the USA and one former flag of Iran on the wall of my room.
I just hoped that you understand this kind of feeling and I should say, this is not inside me only, I know many people here who act the same as I do."

[DoctorZIn]

Iran's missiles and ideology an unhealthy mix

Jul. 7, 2003
By MATTHEW GUTMAN

After years of development, Iran on Monday confirmed that the Shihab-3 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Israel, has undergone its "final testing" and is likely to be integrated into that country's ballistic production line.

What appears to be the successful test of the Shihab-3 only confirms what Israeli intelligence officials have cried in increasingly strident language: Iran constitutes Israel's biggest strategic threat.

"This is very bad news for us," a senior IDF source told The Jerusalem Post Monday night. "It means that Iran now has the capability to deliver a warhead [to] virtually any location in Israel with a missile."

The source explained that missiles themselves are pose little strategic threat, but aside from its development of nuclear weapons, Iran has a potent arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, which could be loaded on the missiles.

While some Iranian opposition groups disputed the success of the latest Shihab trial—the first Shihab-3 was launched with minor success in July 1998—Israeli intelligence confirms that the rocket was launched and landed at a distance of 1300km, just as the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi indicated Monday.

The missile is partially based on North Korean's No Dong missile, a progeny of the Scud class missiles originally designed in the Soviet Union.

"Trust me," added the source, "it is no coincidence that the missile was designed for a range of 1300km—just enough distance to hit all of Israel."

In parallel to the missile development, the senior source said that "Iran is working as quickly as possible to finish developing a nuclear device." Current estimates in the IDF are that Iran might produce a functioning nuclear weapon in two to three years.

It is Iran's ideology, not its current capabilities, that disturbs the IDF intelligence community. "Syria still poses a greater military and strategic threat to us, but it is Iran's ideological imperative of destroying Israel which could be so unhealthy for us," the source said.

The Israeli intelligence community has also suffered from a difficulty in deciphering Iranian logic and propaganda. While they know whose finger rests on or near the "button," the IDF source said it is hard to gauge under what circumstances it could be pressed.

According to a diplomatic source in Jerusalem, the wildcard in Iran's nuclear gambit is Russia. On one hand the Eurasian giant placates the US by promising to curb its nuclear aid to Iran. On the other, said the diplomat, the Russians find it nearly impossible to forgo the billions of dollars it could pump into its economy should the deal be pushed through. Nor is it interested in losing the billions it has already invested in the project.

Israel, Foreign Ministry sources claim, is shackled in its ability to react and prefers to let the international community pressure the Iranians, diplomatically if possible, militarily if necessary, into quitting their nuclear program.

Israel considers the application of American and now British pressure on the Iranians to halt their advancement of military nuclear technology its ace in the hole. "We don't want to lead this fight," said the Foreign Ministry source.

The International Atomic Energy Association director general Muhammed El Bareidi is to chastise Iran for its nuclear duplicity in his trip there Wednesday.

However, international pressure has achieved only partial success in the past. When in the 1970s Jerusalem pressed Washington to ask Paris to downgrade the nuclear reactor France was building for Iraq's Saddam Hussein, the tyrant railed against them, and both the French and the US yielded. Saddam got his Osirak research reactor, in addition to 13kg of weapons-grade uranium, which can be used to build nuclear reactors. With the development of an Iraqi nuclear weapon only weeks away, then Prime Minister Menachem Begin gave the Air Force the nod to destroy the reactor on June 7 1981.

In both the Israeli and American security establishments, there are increasing murmurs of a similar strike in the future.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1057546653608

[McGavin999]

You tell them Doctor, just how MUCH we care. Please tell them that we are all praying for them and that we'll be glued to these screens all day Wednesday. Tell them to be brave and to be safe but not give up.

[DoctorZIn]

The Student Movement Coordinating Committee for Democracy in Iran has just launched its new website. For those who have been visting the old site, this has much more content, photos, links, etc.

They did a great job.

Check it out at:

http://www.daneshjoo.org/

DoctorZin

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[DoctorZIn]

BTW, check out SMCCDI's Feedback Section.

There is a section called Supporter Feedback.
Click on the first link on that page
"American's in Support of the Iranian Student Movement (US): July 9th, We Shall All Be Iranians!"

It will take you here:

http://www.daneshjoo.org/article/publish/article_2999.shtml

I thought it was great that they linked to our FreeRepublic Webpage.

DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Iran acts to stop anniversary student protest

Dan De Luce in Tehran
Tuesday July 8, 2003
The Guardian

The Iranian government is taking action to pre-empt possible unrest tonight on the eve of the anniversary of a crackdown on student protests by banning rallies and jamming satellite broadcasts from exiles in the US.
The interior ministry said it had refused all requests for rallies this week, when university students had hoped to commemorate the violent suppression of protests on July 9 1999.

Caught off guard by a wave of chaotic demonstrations three weeks ago, the authorities are taking no chances and trying to discourage young people from taking to the streets to denounce the theocracy.

The state prosecutor, who blamed the previous round of protests on "hooligans" and meddling foreign powers, said 4,000 people had been detained in recent weeks. Most student leaders have been detained without trial or formal indictment, reformist MPs say.

The authorities have closed some university halls of residence, postponed exams until the autumn, and renewed their efforts to seize satellite dishes and jam broadcasts by exiles in Los Angeles.

The satellite channels, which advocate the restoration of the monarchy, have been calling for more protests. People in Tehran say they have had difficulty receiving the broadcasts in recent days, apparently because of jamming.

In last month's demonstrations protesters fought back for the first time against the vigilantes who have put down previous protests by charging at crowds on motorbikes, wielding clubs and chains.

Teenagers and students threw stones at the paramilitary groups and even abducted three members.

Reformist MPs say that banning the rallies will only bring more unrest in future. "The system will face more social and political crises, because the democratic interpretation of Islam is gaining support among people," said Reza Yusefian, an MP and former student leader.

With plentiful oil income and no organised opposition, the clerical leadership is not immediately threatened by the protests. But reformers say the recent unrest exposed a public frustration which will fester unless the authorities accommodate the vast youth population.

Analysts say the clerics have been careful not to inflame public anger, playing down the protests and avoiding criticism of university students.

Some students say that with prominent activists behind bars the authorities may manage to prevent major street demonstrations on tomorrow's anniversary.

"Students are afraid of being detained by the intelligence ministry," said one, who asked not to be named. "That's why they prefer not to say anything and to keep silent, not to be recognised or singled out."

As the conservatives try to defuse tension among students and unemployed young people, Iran faces fresh international pressure this week because of its nuclear programme.

Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is due to arrive tomorrow to urge Tehran to agree to snap inspections of its nuclear facilities. The US and the EU suspect that Iran may be pursuing a clandestine weapons programme, an accusation Iran vehemently denies.

Although Tehran has so far refused to agree to more sweeping inspections, some experts and conservative MPs suggested for the first time yesterday that the country had nothing to fear from meeting the agency's demand by signing the "additional protocol" to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

·An editor of a financial daily has been detained for publishing a photo showing a smiling leader of Iran's armed opposition group, his wife said yesterday. Iraj Jamshidi, editor of the Asia daily, was detained on charges of propagating against the ruling establishment, said Saqi Bagherinia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,993700,00.html

[nuconvert]

How is NITV doing? And the radio stations? Where they all able to broadcast today?

[DoctorZIn]

This just in….

We are hearing reports that satellite TV broadcasts is being jammed in Europe, Britain, throughout the Middle East and even inside the USA. As I reported earlier, LA based Iranian broadcasters such as: NITV (National Iranian TV) and Azadi (which means Freedom) have had their broadcasts interrupted several times over the past few days. This requires jamming their “uplink” signals in the USA. I repeat, in the USA. The FCC is investigating.

The reports I am hearing is that the government believes a mobile jamming vehicle is moving to new locations, jams these broadcasts signals right here in the USA and shuts down its operation whenever they believe FCC investigators are getting close. This would be consistent with the regimes efforts to make deaf, dumb, and blind the Iranian people over the next few days.

I will keep you posted on these events.

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[risk]

If we can prove this is from Islamist agents, it's a perfect example of why the INS is still useless, our FBI remains woefully unprepared, and immigration (sorry) and international travel in and out of the US is still out of control.

Our problems defending democracy are your problems launching a new one! Let's solve them together...

[nuconvert]

NOTICE: IT IS ALREADY 8:00 AM IN TEHERAN, JULY 8th

[DoctorZIn]

Agreed.

[DoctorZIn]

A bit of positive news...

We were told to expect martial law to be declared throughout the country of Iran 3 days before the July 9th protests. So far martial law has not be instituted, although there is a massive security presence in nearly all of Iran. We have also heard to expect the phone systems to be shut down. This has not happened yet. People still have access to phones, faxes, and the Internet (although now with certain sites being blocked).

While this does not mean things will get worse, it is a bit encouraging.

[risk]

To: president@whitehouse.gov
Subject: Support the Iranian Revolution July 9th!

Dear President Bush and cabinet:

Please listen to the Iranian youth as they cry out for help in
fomenting regime change there tomorrow. They are hoping against hope
that America is with them. They would bring democracy and freedom to
their land. Please do not let them down as the west once did the Kurds and
the Shia muslims in Iraq. I understand that your plans are complex,
but some things are simple: democracy could succeed in Iran where it
is currently still experimental in Iraq.

The students are ready to fight. They are ready to support American
special forces and American advanced landing units. Don't turn your
face away!

Very best regards,

XXXX