What 2004 Is Shaping Up To Be.

So, yah, I'm from Washington State. Thought I'd throw some info out.

Patty Murray should NOT be reelected, but she most likely will be. She is a embarrasment, not only to the state, but especially the State Republican party. She is, quite frankly, and this is not a partisan thing, dumb as a brick, and it is a HUGE stain on the State Republican party that they didn't bring her down in 98. Her challenger was Linda Smith, who was a really good candidate, but she had a problem: She wouldn't take PAC money, and ended up being painted really bad by Murrey. It's not always about money, but that was a big part of it.

If Rep. Jennifer Dunn would run, we might have a really good chance of taking out Murrey, and the White House wanted her to, but apparently, she's turned them down. I would do just about anything to change her mind, I wish I could think of something, but she doesn't seem to be caving. I can't say I blame her, she's powerful and secure where she is, but it's a shame for Washington.

Since she turned down the WH invite to run against her (they promised her a LOT of support too), the WH has been pressuring George Neithercutt, a Rep. from the Spokane area. He's a pretty good guy, I actually like him a lot, and he's probably going to run. However, he's not nearly as strong of a cadidate. For one thing, he's from eastern Washington, which isn't good. The truth of the matter is that Washington is basically two states, West of the mountains (I.E. Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia etc) and East of the mountains, which is much more rural. The Republican cadidate is already going to win big on the east side of the mountains, so he has no geographic advantage. Also, although he has won reelection twice in his district since, originally, he said he was only going to serve 3 terms. I think this might be used against him more effectively statewide. Finally, he's not a woman, and in the Soviet of Western Washington, that could hurt him. That said, he is quite possibly the strongest choice left available, so I wish him luck.

As far as Locke goes, it's 50/50 if he's going to run again. He has won both times against super weak candidates, but since then, the state has moved even further to the left. It would take a good candidate, I think Rikert would have murdered him (I was SO disappointed he decided not to run), but he is beatable. If he doesn't run, I'm praying Jay Inslee (Who, I regret to say, is my representative) runs for two reasons:

A. Inslee can raise funds, and that's all. He beat a badly wounded Republican Candidate, who was also hampered by a ultra conservative third party in the race (Heratige Party if I'm not mistaken) to get the seat in 98 (beating Rick White, who not only reversed his stance on Gun Control and Abortion, but who, as I recall, devorced his wife for a yonger woman), and has faced two virtually unelectable candidates with no money and has still had to spend a buch to win. Papers were endorsing Joe Marine (his last challenger) left and right, and frankly, Joe was a complete joke as a candidate. He was APPOINTED to being a State Rep for one year, got defeated with LESS THEN 40% of the vote, decided to run for Rep for some reason, had no money, and still got 45% of the vote. Inslee isn't terribly likeable and votes against the interests of his state all day long. He's all over the map.

B. I BADLY want to have some credible candidate take over his seat. I think State Senator Dave Schmidt has a good chance. He's likable and I think now likely to run as a State Senator, who's secure (he was a state rep till 2002). He's got high name ID, as he's been a rep for years, ran for Snohomish County Exec if I'm not mistaken (It coulda just been county council, I forget), and is generally well liked.

Anyhow, I think we would have the best chacne against either him. Ron Sims scares me. Repubs call him Ron 'Tax To The Max' Sims, who 'never met a tax hike he didn't like'. I don't think he's that strong of a candidate, but it would scare the crap out of me if he won. Even Inslee isn't that bad.

So anyhow, seeming as how Washington missed the GWB sweep of 2002 somehow, (we didn't gain a single Rep seat, lost some in the state house (although, admittedly, we did take control of the state senate by 1 vote, which means we won 1 extra senate seat), it would be great to predict great things now that GWB is planning on campaigning heavily in Washington, but unfortunatly, I'm not too hopeful. I think Neithercutt will run, and he might have a shot, but I'd still put his odds 35/65 against him. The Governor is iffy, but I'd say the odds are still 60/40 against us. Time will tell. Either way, I'll be campaigning my ass off for Neithercutt and whoever gets the Gov nom. Hope all other Washintonians do the same.

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