Citing New Stimuli, Economists Forecast A Second-Half Rebound

The Wall Street Journal ^ | July 3, 2003 | Joh E. Hilsenrath

[BOBTHENAILER]

NEW YORK -- Massive fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts, and improving business profits should lead to a long-awaited economic rebound in the second half of the year, according to 54 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

[BOBTHENAILER]

And the handful of Freepers suffering from permanent pathological pessimism.

They'll be crushed by the weight of the recovery as it increases.

[Fyscat]

The Commercials are SHORT the SP500, and have a larger SHORT position in the Nasdog than anytime in the 3 year BEAR MARKET!!!

Whose side do you want your clients to be on?

[Fyscat]

The S&P 500 seems to be the major index being utilized to operate this market rally. There is no question in my mind that the level of the stock market is a key tool for the Federal Reserve strategy for kick-starting the global economy.

In a sense, I can't blame the Fed for thinking this way because when the market broke off its March 2000 highs, it became the catalyst for declining economic activity.

If you recall, it seemed that it took only 30 days for business to roll over. I believe the roll over was the result of the market and not the other way around. Apparently the Fed does too.

One thing you can be absolutely sure of is that Ma and Pa Kettle in the Mid-West are not buying the S&P 500 Index today. This is a coordinated effort on the part of the major international investment banks pleasing to the Fed and a last ditch effort to force business psychology into a positive mode.

[Eala]

Paging Willie Green...

[Willie Green]

Dubya's tax cuts will be ineffective as far as domestic economic stimulus.
The cash will merely flow OUT of our domestic economy, either as increased overseas investment or as the Trade Deficit, leaving the U.S. Treasury deeper in debt.

Dubya's policies are absolutely dismal.
It's as though he and Robert Zoellick have targetted the American Middle Class for economic obliteration.

[MeekOneGOP]

[Bill Davis FR]

and unemployment rate jumped up to 6.4% last month...how much higher

[Fyscat]

"The cash will merely flow OUT of our domestic economy, either as increased overseas investment or as the Trade Deficit, leaving the U.S. Treasury deeper in debt."

Excellent point, thanx for pointing that out.

[Fyscat]

Well it's 1:00 p.m. EST, lets see if the markets just surge for no apparent reason again.

[hchutch]

The DNC had bvetter put some ice on that poll...

[Fyscat]

my bag, markets close early today. I forgot.

[FreeTheHostages]

And the handful of Freepers suffering from permanent pathological pessimism.

LOL, exactly. What's up with that? It's morning in America.

[Digger]

I've heard for 3yrs passed that economic growth would pick up in the second half of the yr & it has not done so. Corps are spending nothing on IT. CEOs have been selling their stocks. It all ads up to me as a long drawnout recovery & it's by no way GW's fault. He inherited this mess. He has done alright with the war. Now everything else is quit questionable.

[y2k_free_radical]

PEOPLE are too vain and there is not enough stigma of shame anymore to enduce them to jump

[MonroeDNA]

The economy is treating me, and those here in South Florida, just fine.

Of course, we have no state income tax, are a right-to-work state, and in general, very business friendly.

(Not to mention high speed limits, "shall issue" CCW, Republican House, Senate, and Governor)

[habs4ever]

Just how does a cut in marginal tax rates cause a flow OUT of the US?You may just see an INCREASE in the trade deficit...aka the capital account surplus...as more can be bought with less.It helps, Willie, if you at least try to understand the terms you use.BTW, the Treasury wouldn't be deeper in debt because of your reasoned analysis.

[habs4ever]

Not much Bush can do if the Fed doesn't provide enough liquidity for the increased output from the tax cuts.The Fed engineered the downturn and, maybe like Greenspan did to Bush1, will be slow to reflate the amount nneded to accelerate the recovery.Money velocity turnover is the key, as it has been since 1999, while the Fed focus on Fed Funds.

[rwfromkansas]

Let's remember how they sucked wind earlier in the year, though they were about accurate last year.

Also, unemployment is up to 6.4 percent and stocks are taking a dive.

[Coop]

Also, unemployment is up to 6.4 percent and stocks are taking a dive.

And unemployment did better than expected last month, while stocks were up. Your point?

[rwfromkansas]

My point is that higher unemployment is not good for the economy. Duh.

FR only focuses on the positives, never the negatives.

It is like we think somehow we singlehandedly can get the economy back on track by censoring bad news.

No, we can't.