Democrats call Specter 'vulnerable'

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ^ | June 29, 2003 | Richard Robbins

[buzzyboop]

U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, a Montgomery County Democrat, has all but officially announced that he is a candidate for the U.S. Senate, setting the stage for a possible campaign against Republican incumbent Arlen Specter in November 2004.

The three-term congressman will make his intentions known "within the next few weeks," a spokesman said.

[buzzyboop]

Much as I dislike my Scottish Law Senator, he would be less vulnerable than if his Republican challenger, Pat Toomey, received the GOP nomination for PA Senator. I despise this "half a loaf is better than none" approach, and I truly prefer Pat Toomey. Unfortunately, it's a reality, and President Bush knows this, hence Vice President Cheney's stumping for Arlen.

[Torie]

After the primary, Specter might be as vulnerable to defeat as Toomey. Either however might still win, if Bush rakes up a big margin in Pennsylvania as part of a rather lopsided national victory. Thus, both Hoeffel's and Toomey's decision to go for the brass ring has some logic behind it, that goes beyond wishful thinking.

[Arkinsaw]

Don't worry, Specter will come up with a political magic bullet and save the Republic from the tragedy of being without his presence on Capitol Hill.

[AmishDude]

Hoeffel has ties to Pittsburgh Mayor Tom Murphy

That will make him unpopular in Western PA.

[Cicero]

Specter seems to do whatever is needed to win. Witness his 180-degree turnaround after the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill hearings.

[AmishDude]

Hoeffel would be very unlikely to beat Specter. Rendell's administration can be best summarized by the word "bumbling". I don't see his victory over the incredibly boring Fisher as some sort of bellweather. Unless Hoeffel has a very very charismatic personality, he won't beat Specter.

As for him vs. Toomey, it really depends on who comes out better on TV. I would say that if the Toomey/Specter race got very nasty, a wounded Toomey couldn't win the general election. Specter still would.

[Torie]

LOL. Without his presence on the Judiciary Committee during the Bork hearings, history would be a tad less colorful. Watching the rusty gears of his sluggish mind try to shift from first into second, without ever making third, was a wonderous thing to watch, as Bork stuggled to avoid pointing it all out explicitly.

[Pubbie]

"I would say that if the Toomey/Specter race got very nasty, a wounded Toomey couldn't win the general election."

I think the opposite - If Toomey takes down SpeKtor, Toomey would be viewed as a giant killer, and would have a great deal of momentum.

Furthermore, I believe the Primary is in March, so that would give Toomey a full 7 months to launch attacks against Hoeffel going into the general.

[AmishDude]

The problem is that if Specter attacks Toomey, some of the attacks will stick. Just to give an example, if Specter puts out ads that say Toomey is anti-cute-puppies, some people will wonder if Toomey is really against cute puppies. But if nobody does something similar to Hoeffel (he really can't get elected because "Hoeffel rhymes with awful" has got to be the worst political name since, well, Klink) then he has less of a hole from which to climb.

[bandleader]

I don't understand why The DemonRats would "Target" one of their own?After all,he's just a couple of steps behind"Jumpin' Jim"!!

[Pubbie]

"The problem is that if Specter attacks Toomey, some of the attacks will stick."

Yes but there's still 7 full months for Toomey to hit back against Hoeffel.

Plus Toomey will get the support of the National GOP Political machine, he would get money, and there should be a decent size "Bush Bounce" in Pennsylvania that can push Toomey over the top.

Right now I think Toomey could very likely beat SpeKtor, considering that Arlen has done poorly against underfunded Primary opponents in the past.

[L.N. Smithee]

Specter seems to do whatever is needed to win. Witness his 180-degree turnaround after the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill hearings.

Specter is as firm in his stances as a weather vane.

[AmishDude]

Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer Toomey, but I'm a realist and I don't want him flailing and trying to destroy Specter if he has no chance. We have to think about the next governor's race and if Toomey plays his cards right, he could be in an ideal position -- have an outside shot of winning the Senatorial primary or set himself up as the most recognizable Republican to run for governor against Rendell.

The painful truth is that Senators who have been in office for 24 years do not lose to primary challengers all that often.

There's also a new dynamic in Pennsylvania politics. For years, it's been the tale of the "conservative T". If the Democrats nominate a Philadelphian, then the Republicans can win with a Pittsburgher because the normally Democrat Pittsburghers will vote for their own and, along with conservative voters in the central and northern parts of the state, will carry him to victory. Vice versa as well.

The problem is two-fold. First, Pittsburgh's population is dwindling. Second, the Philadelphia suburbs are voting Democrat. So, a Philadelphia Democrat candidate can overcome that deficit. Coupling all of that with the amazing voting rates of Democrats in Philadelphia, it's too much of a burden.

[randita]

of interest

[ForOurFuture]

Here can be found a TV ad and radio ad produced by Toomey.

[AmishDude]

Hoeffel, 52, a former Montgomery County commissioner and former member of the state House,

This does put him at a severe disadvantage even to Toomey. I'm sure the Dems wish they had somebody with more experience.

has demonstrated a capacity to win close elections,

Two words: voter fraud.

and in the process raise substantial amounts of money.For a county commissioner's job and a state House seat? What's substantial? What kind of special money ties does this guy have?

[Pubbie]

"Philadelphia Democrat candidate can overcome that deficit. Coupling all of that with the amazing voting rates of Democrats in Philadelphia, it's too much of a burden."

Then how come Santorum keeps wining?

[AmishDude]

Can't view/listen to it. Basically: Linux sux.

And nobody tell me how with only 400 lines of simple code, I can install the software -- I don't have root access.

[AmishDude]

Santorum is an interesting lesson. Last time, Santorum won easily over a relatively conservative (in appearance) Democrat opponent whereas Bush (who is less conservative) lost easily against a more liberal one -- in the same election!

The "conservative T" thing is just a general guideline. The relative positions on the issues and how the candidates come across on television are often much more deciding factors. With two relative unknowns, though, it is easy to handicap the race with this "conservative T" view.

Toomey (from Lehigh county) could defeat a western PA democrat, though.

What is interesting is that conventional wisdom dictates that Democrats have to be pro-gun and wishy-washy on abortion in order to win statewide office. I disagree. Rendell proves that. I think a more liberal stance animates the traditional Democrat base and motivates the suburban Philadelphians much more than it turns off pro-gun conservative Democrats in western PA.

[FryingPan101]

"President Bush knows this, hence Vice President Cheney's stumping for Arlen."

Unfortunately, I sense you're right.....and that's what politics really is.