SARS Epidemic May Reemerge, CDC Director Warns

Reuters ^ | 6-18-03

[Prince Charles]

SARS Epidemic May Reemerge, CDC Director Warns

Wed June 18, 2003 03:04 PM ET

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Like deadly flu epidemics of the past, SARS may reemerge later this year as a global health threat, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

Dr. Julie Gerberding pointed out that infectious diseases like SARS and monkeypox are spread around the world by travelers or by trade in exotic animals.

"This is the new normal: emerging infectious diseases ... that create immediate global concerns because of the movement of people and animals," Gerberding said in a speech to the American Medical Association's annual meeting.

Gerberding compared SARS to flu epidemics early in the last century that appeared to subside, only to erupt again with the change of seasons and kill millions.

"The risk is not over as any moment another patient could emerge," she said.

The World Health Organization said this week the worst was over in the battle against SARS and lifted a travel warning for Taiwan, leaving Beijing as the only place with an advisory in force.

But the United Nations agency said health authorities must stay alert for fresh outbreaks of the disease that killed almost 800 people and infected about 8,500 since it emerged late last year in southern China.

Gerberding said the number of cases was "definitely dwindling" but the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter could witness another outbreak.

"Our next priority is to develop a rapid diagnostic test," she said. "We now know there are milder forms of the illness where people may not have symptoms. What we don't know is if these people can transmit the virus."

The monkeypox outbreak in the U.S. Midwest this spring caught health authorities by surprise, she said, and showed how the movement of people and animals around the globe posed health risks. There have been roughly 80 non-fatal human cases so far traced to pet prairie dogs, with the infection traced to a Gambian rat imported from Africa.

She said no new human cases of the deadly West Nile virus appeared in the United States so far this spring, though the CDC was tracking bird and mosquito virus carriers and expected the deadly illness to reappear this summer. Last year, there were more than 4,000 human cases and 284 deaths.

[Prince Charles]

Ping.

[aristeides]

CDC isn't repeating the idiotic triumphalist statements of the WHO.

[Rudder]

Or it may not.

No one knows, including this prognosticator from the CDC.

Must be a slow news day.

[Prince Charles]

Right; Dr. Gerberding seems to be very forthrightly laying it all out.

[TBall]

"Gerberding compared SARS to flu epidemics early in the last century that appeared to subside, only to erupt again with the change of seasons and killed millions" I thought a coronavirus was something different than the flu. I understand SARS could have seasonal outbreaks, but isn't SARS something completely different than even an aggressive flu of the past?

[Prince Charles]

Yes, SARS is thought to be caused by a coronavirus, while influenza is caused by a different virus.

Do a keyword search on "spanishflu" to see about the 1918 outbreak that killed millions. It also tapered off to almost nothing during the summer of that year.

[Dog Gone]

If SARS were eradicated this summer, I would be thrilled. I'm happy that it doesn't seem to be a big threat to my family right now.

That may, and probably will, change later this year. If not, that would be even better news.

I'm concerned about emerging diseases and the threat is very real. We need to be vigilant, and I'm hoping all the various agencies will be vigilant, too. As of this moment, they are proud. I hope they're not cocky.

[aristeides]

Now the head of WHO seems to be saying the same thing. WHO chief warns SARS could reappear. He must have gotten scolded for the statement yesterday.

[Betty Jo]

SARS is not over.

http://www.canada.com/national/features/sars

go to the right, scroll down to "67 year old man" article.

read about the teacher who tested positive on the 17th

[TBall]

I've read about the "spanishflu" of 1918, but I'm wondering if possibly the "spanishflu" could have been a coronavirus? I doubt it since scientists have probably been studying the Spanishflu under a microscope for years. I guess my point is that if your not careful reading these articles you might come to the conclusion that SARS is another deadly flu.

[Prince Charles]

From your link:

[Gro Harlem] Brundtland told the conference Tuesday that SARS had "been stopped dead in its tracks" despite the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs, thanks largely to centuries-old containment techniques like quarantine and tracking down infected people.

Today she said, "In the best case, we can see SARS disappear...However, we do not know if it can reappear from the animal community and reappear in humanity again."

Maybe she's starting to "Gro" a brain.

[aristeides]

"I Didn't Think I Was Going to Make It".

[Prince Charles]

Yes, the AP newswriter could have done a better job constructing the 1st paragraph. Gerberding was comparing the "herald wave" of Spanish Flu to what many say could happen with SARS.

[Prince Charles]

National lab finds an extra 120 people may have had SARS; experts concerned

TORONTO (CP) - As many as 120 people who aren't on the list of Canada's probable or suspect SARS cases may actually have had the disease, testing done by Health Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory has shown.

The Canuck guesswork in white coats is still going strong...

[KellyAdmirer]

As I said on another SARS thread a few days ago, SARS will return when the weather cools again. This is a seasonal pattern thing. I just hope the researchers don't get lulled into a false sense of security by the WHO's unjustified optimism.

[IYAAYAS]

Scientists have NOT been studying spanish flu under the microscope for years. On the contrary in fact, no one is sure exactly what the spanish flu was. Scientists made a big deal a few years ago when they dug up a couple of WW1 soldiers buried in Alaska's permafrost hoping to get a genetic sample. I don't know what became of the whole endeavor, but I remember.

[TBall]

"Scientists made a big deal a few years ago when they dug up a couple of WW1 soldiers buried in Alaska's permafrost hoping to get a genetic sample." So why would you think that scientists have not been been looking at the Spanish Flu. Beacause there has been no follow up to the story?

[IYAAYAS]

No, my point is we don't have a sample of spanish flu that can be proven as the culprit of the 1918 pandemic. We have only recently obtained a likely sample, and that is debateable. Like the present, are we positive this newly identified coronavirus causes SARS? It probably does, but if almost 90 years went by and you dug up two bodies and found a common virus does that make it the '18 virus?

[Betty Jo]

Everybody needs to read this!