I put her chances at better than 50%, and that's if she ran in 2004. Reasons are as follows:
1) More immigrants (legal and illegal) who come from statist countries. Whoever the RATS nominate will appeal to this group.
2) Voter fraud in the metropolitan cesspools.
3) A lot of women will vote for the "first woman to run for president".
4) A sluggish economy with rising unemployment.
5) A conservative base which is disatisfied because of Bush's stances on guns, globalization, and increased gov't. A lot of folks are going to sit at home in 2004 unless the trend is reversed.
BUMP
FMCDH
Dick Morris says this is the reason that any Democrat will be the front-runner in '08.
I agree with your reasoning, and, as another poster said, she has the Media squarely behind her, and she will get a ton of the female vote, simply because she is a woman. Better than 50% is what I do not agree with. I think her chances are much better than 50%. I wish I could be more positive, but Hillary will be president, if not in 04, than surely in 08. Unfortunately, we might have to get used to saying President Clinton again. I hate this, but I am fearful it really will happen.