I agree with your reasoning, and, as another poster said, she has the Media squarely behind her, and she will get a ton of the female vote, simply because she is a woman. Better than 50% is what I do not agree with. I think her chances are much better than 50%. I wish I could be more positive, but Hillary will be president, if not in 04, than surely in 08. Unfortunately, we might have to get used to saying President Clinton again. I hate this, but I am fearful it really will happen.
The only way I don't see this happening is if the Republican Party become the "pro-Freedom" party it partially was under the leadership of Reagan and Gingrich.
Unfortunately, the trend of the GOP is now less Freedom and more government.