Looks like SARS will go to zero by month's end.

World Health Organization ^ | June 15, 2003 | StACase

[StACase]

The important statistic with regard to diseases such as SARS is, in my opinion, the number of active cases. WHO and News organizations don't report this stat. However, WHO since April 10th has reported total number of cases, deaths and recoveries from which the number active cases can easily be derived. So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

[TaxRelief]

If winter(!) is the big issue conducive to the next SARS
outbreak, why isn't SARS all over the southern
hemisphere, now?

[Betty Jo]

Do you think WHO and CDC knows it cant be talked about on the Chinese keyboards,phones and newspapers?

Kind of puts a huge hole in the "GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH INTELLIGENCE NETWORK"(GPHIN).

Maybe _Jim could go to China and help the effort to shut down any nfo re:any disease?

[Betty Jo]

I have never said anything about seasonal-temperature,yada,yada.

[Betty Jo]

http://www.wnbc.com/health/2269465/detail.html

Nassau Records Sixth and Seventh Possible SARS Cases

[per loin]

A quick look at the land masses along the two 45 parallels ought answer that question. Only a small percent of the earth's population lives south of 30 degrees south latitude.

[TaxRelief]

Reading back over the thread, it is a valid point that some diseases occur more frequently in summer and some occur more frequently in winter. Diseases that like moisture (like ear infections) or depend on mosquitos are generally more summer oriented. Diseases that like crowded dry air (like influenza) and dry mucous membranes spread more in the winter.

However, some diseases, such as norovirus (diarrhea), prefer public bathrooms and hotels and don't really care what time of year it is. SARS seems to be more like norovirus in terms of transmission than influenza. It looks for institutions and crowded living conditions (hotels, hospitals, boats) for transmission.

[TaxRelief]

One would expect outbreaks in Auckland, Wellington, Sydney, Johannesberg (especially), Christ Church, Santaigo, Buenos Aires (also especially) and other South African locations, if SARS was a winter spreader.

[per loin]

Any info on why the flu season in Hong Kong strikes at those odd times?

[per loin]

Yes. If the disease were at large there, and if it is a winter spreader. I'm not convinced that we've evidence yet of either being the case.

[RnMomof7]

Except Canada is still having new cases

[Betty Jo]

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/June2003/15/c3373.html

SARS Canadian Update

[Trust but Verify]

For all intents and purposes, it's not only over, it never 'was' in most places, including the US. This case in Nassau County of a woman who got the disease in China in 12/02 but has since recovered is laughable!

[Betty Jo]

From the url above:

" (*) of todays 53 hospitalized cases,19 are in critical or deteriorating condition"

Again I ask can somebody find out what drugs these victms are on?

Are they all on ventilators?

If they were taken off, would they all be unable to breathe and die?

[StACase]

Except Canada is still having new cases

Then active cases wouldn't be at zero would they. That chart I put up says it's going to zero in about two weeks. Which would mean no new cases in Canada or anywhere else.

[RnMomof7]

Then active cases wouldn't be at zero would they. That chart I put up says it's going to zero in about two weeks. Which would mean no new cases in Canada or anywhere else.

No they wouldn't does that tell you something?

Resurgence of SARS cases in Toronto

TORONTO, June 11 (UPI) -- The World Health Organization said Wednesday it is concerned over the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Toronto.

Toronto, which had been removed from the list of areas with recent local transmission May 14, was again added to the list on May 26 following evidence more than one generation of new cases had occurred.

Since the disease first resurged in Toronto, more than 90 new probable cases have been reported.

Health authorities in Toronto are again on high alert and are treating all hospital-associated clusters of patients with fever or respiratory symptoms as possible SARS cases until proven otherwise.

Possible cases are immediately isolated. All contacts are being traced and, when warranted, placed in home quarantine. Infection control measures are being followed in all affected facilities. WHO welcomes these precautionary measures.

WHO said it is monitoring the situation closely.

I

RALEIGH, N.C. - Canadian officials are wondering if a North Carolina man really did contract SARS in Toronto.

* INDEPTH: SARS: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Health officials in the southeastern U.S. state say he visited a medical centre in Toronto and came into contact with a person who had severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The unidentified 47-year-old man is in stable condition and recovering at home in isolation in Orange County.

• 

---

New SARS Worries In Toronto
TORONTO, June 3, 2003


An increasing number of SARS cases in Canada's largest city is worrying the World Health Organization, which discussed the possibility of re-imposing a travel advisory on Toronto, a spokeswoman said Tuesday.

Health officials have reported 62 probable cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome in a new cluster that became known after the initial outbreak in March and April was believed under control.

The biggest outbreak of SARS outside Asia has killed 32 people in the Toronto area, including a 60-year-old man who died May 20. His case was reported Monday.

"We've been concerned by the increasing number of cases in Toronto," said Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the WHO communicable diseases division, from the Geneva headquarters. "Our epidemiological team is still looking for a bit more information."

She said the Toronto situation was discussed at a meeting Tuesday to review travel advisories that have been issued or were under consideration. No change was made because the new SARS cluster in the city appeared limited to hospitals, Cheng said.

"We are optimistic that Toronto is able to contain this outbreak," she said. "To us, it still looks very much like the transmission of SARS is confined to the hospital setting and there is no general public transmission of SARS."

The second cluster of SARS cases landed Toronto back on a WHO list of SARS-affected cities or regions. The U.N. agency previously issued a travel advisory for Toronto, but rescinded it a week later after Canadian officials complained it was unwarranted and promised better screening of international travelers for SARS.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reinstated a travel alert for Toronto, informing travelers of a health concern there.

A new WHO travel advisory would devastate the city already reeling from the SARS outbreak, which has overwhelmed the health care system and hurt the vital convention and tourism industry.

On Monday, the Dixie Chicks postponed a June 12 show until August, and theater producers announced they will close "The Lion King" in September after 1,300 performances seen by 2.3 million people over more than three years.

Complaints by nurses that their warnings in mid-May of a new cluster went unheeded caused Ontario officials to announce a review of the situation Monday.

The 62 cases reported Monday were an increase of 10 over the previous day, and health officials also said 6,800 people were under home quarantine because of possible exposure to SARS.

Dr. Colin D'Cunha, the Ontario commissioner of public health, said 5,000 health care workers were in working quarantine, which means they continue working but must wear mask, gown and gloves inside and outside of hospitals and isolate themselves at home.

D'Cunha said the latest death turned up when officials went back to check an unexplained respiratory illness in the case. The victim's wife also is a SARS patient.

"This is not an easy diagnosis. This diagnosis mimics just about everything else," said Dr. James Young, the Ontario commissioner of public safety. "It is proving to be extremely difficult."

Young urged people to avoid hospitals unless absolutely necessary to ease the burden on a system coping with the illness.

Health officials thought they had the illness under control after the initial cluster appeared in March and April, but an undiagnosed case at North York General Hospital led to a further spread among other patients, family members and health care workers.

[per loin]

So, if my Excel® generated chart of that data is correct, SARS will hit "Zero" active cases before the end of June.

On the 30th of June will you post again, letting us know whether or not your prediction of no active cases is accurate?

[per loin]

Scientists find SARS fragments in air samples

CTV.ca News Staff

Researchers from Alberta's Suffield military base are celebrating a major breakthrough in the struggle to crack the SARS virus -- they have become the first ever to snag fragments of the deadly disease from the air.

While the findings don't resolve the question of whether severe acute respiratory syndrome can be spread through airborne infection, experts say they do show the virus can be in the air.

Defence Department scientist Bill Kournikakis' team went to Toronto last month and used specially-designed equipment to take air samples from three SARS-infected hospital rooms.

"They were able to positively confirm that the nucleic acid from the SARS virus is present in two of the ten samples that we collected in one patient's room," Kournikakis told CTV affiliate CFCN News.

For months researchers have been debating whether SARS is airborne or transmitted through droplets when infected patients sneeze.

The SARS fragments discovered in the air were dead under the microscope so it's not known whether they were alive when first collected.

"It suggests airborne, but there are other examples of other viral infections that aren't transmitted by the airborne route where you can detect some of the DNA," said Dr. Donald Low, chief microbiologist at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital.

The discovery of even fragments of SARS in the air could help other researching the disease work out how it spreads and affects the environment where it's present.

[StACase]

On the 30th of June will you post again, letting us know whether or not your prediction of no active cases is accurate?

Sure

I'm tracking it as long as WHO puts up the numbers on their website. I've been expecting them to stop posting the data. They've stopped putting it up on Saturday.

I don't see any reason why that graph should level out as it approaches zero. It's not like that asymptotic frog jumping half way to the wall.

[per loin]

I've tracked the Hong Kong hospitalization figures since mid March. 42 days ago they dropped into single digit daily numbers. Since then they've recorded 127 new hospitalizations with 3 of those coming within the last week. Your prediction may be a bit optimistic.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Irony is lost on some. If you have to explain satire, it's not funny.