I agree completely. The recall will happen. The only question is whether it will be in a fall special election or the March 2004 primary. And it's looking increasingly likely that enough signatures will be turned in by early July to force the fall election.
I would love it if the Republican Party were to coalesce around Tom McClintock. He'd make a marvelous Governor, and he's the only potential candidate in whom I have a high level of confidence that he could actually fix California's fiscal problems (and with no tax hikes!).
Unfortunately I doubt that the Republicans will rally around Tom. Issa is almost certain to run, since he's putting so much of his own money into the recall drive. Bill Simon is panting to run. Arnold Schwarzenegger is likely to run. Richard Riordan may run. Etc., etc.
Frankly, if I had to make a bet at this time, I'd bet that the Democrats will have greater discipline than the Republicans in limiting their prominent candidates. And especially since California is still a heavily-Democratic state, the odds are that Davis will be replaced by another Democrat.
It's worth the risk. Even most of the potential Democratic replacements would be major improvements over Davis (which just proves how horrible a governor Davis has been). And in any case it will be an object lesson for politicians in this state that the wrath of the people cannot be ignored.
There's the old story about two guys who see a bear coming after them in the forest. One guy starts to run away. The other guy calls after him, "It's hopeless to flee. You can't outrun the bear." The other guy calls over his shoulder, "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you." That has been Gray Davis' modus operandi his entire career, as he laborously climbed the political ladder to his present perch. As corrupt and incompetent and personality-challenged as he is, Davis has been blessed with Democratic and Republican opponents he could outrun (most recently Bill Simon). But this time the recall is focussed solely on Davis; there's no one along side him who he can simply outrun. Davis is about to become bear-food.
The recall vote tote is going to get the necessasy level of signatures by mid-July that includes a lot of additional signatures gathered to compensate for any disqualified signatures that are checked for authenticity,etc.
If the Secy of State wants to drag out the verification process for 6 months, so be it.. all the better,, that way Gray gets whipped or Cruz gets whipped as the budget melts down and the state with it.
I don't see the election happening next spring personally. It is a foregone that it will occur. Why postpone the inevitable?
And quite frankly, its California's last best shot of turning this state around.. sad to say.
We need Tom in the recall winner's circle and We need to toss demRats out of Stinkymento in 2004.