Posted on 06/06/2003 2:02:06 PM PDT by jazzyjen97
But one man who firmly believes his historic destiny is fast approaching is Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, who fled Iran in 1979 on the eve of the Islamic revolution and then died of cancer wandering in exile.
The heir to the Peacock Throne is 42 and has not seen his homeland for a quarter of a century. But viewed from Virginia, where he lives on his dwindling inheritance, Mr Pahlavi is convinced the ayatollahs who deposed his father are on their own way out.
"It could happen in the next few months, or in one or two years," Mr Pahlavi tells the Financial Times over tea. "This regime feels cornered. People are rejecting this regime in its totality, they want to find a secular alternative."
He compares the situation now with 1978, a few months before the revolution. Now, he says, the economy is collapsing and 200,000 young people are fleeing the country each year. Drug abuse and prostitution are rife. One key element that is missing, however, is a restive and organised labour force. In 1978, Iran's oil workers downed tools, precipitating the end of the monarchy.
Mr Pahlavi is working on that. Through his commitment to "non-violent civil disobedience", the would-be king claims he is in contact with underground opposition activists, members of the regime and even the Revolutionary Guards: "They are giving signals of how they see their role and could co-operate at some point and refuse to carry out orders."
However, Mr Pahlavi is not joining other opposition groups in calling for a general strike and student rallies on July 9, the fourth anniversary of pro-democracy protests in Tehran. He says the organisation is not ready, and students should not provoke more bloodshed. He also admits that among the public there is the "fear factor".
Although the Islamic republic has demonstrated resilience and flexibility through numerous crises, Mr Pahlavi has allies in Washington who believe the regime will collapse under pressure with a push from the outside.
The Bush administration is reviewing its policy towards Iran. Some "hawks" want a tougher line that would amount to "regime change" in all but name. This would include a break in dialogue and support for opposition groups, but not necessarily military action.
The Pentagon has denied reports it attempted to co-opt opposition Iranian militants of the People's Mujahideen Organisation (MKO) in northern Iraq. But other officials say Condoleezza Rice, national security adviser, blocked such an attempt on the grounds the MKO was listed as a "terrorist" group, a stigma the MKO and its supporters in Washington are seeking to remove. Massoud Rajavi, the MKO leader, was jailed under the Shah and he and Mr Pahlavi remain opponents.
Judith Kipper, Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the Pentagon hawks see no contradiction in supporting both camps, although neither enjoys broad support in Iran - particularly the MKO, which allied itself to Saddam Hussein.
In Congress, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas has proposed the Iran Democracy Act which would provide some $57m (€48m, £35m) in US aid to the opposition and boost broadcasts into Iran.
While some Iranians look back to the times of the Shah with nostalgia, political programmes beamed by monarchists from Los Angeles are widely dismissed as condescending and vulgar - though the entertainment shows get more viewers.
As heir to the throne, Mr Pahlavi says it is his duty to defend the concept of a constitutional monarchy. He hopes to lead the Iranian people to the day when they can vote in a free referendum for the type of government they want.
For some die-hards around him, Mr Pahlavi is not royalist enough, however.
The ageing stalwarts hark back not to his father, but to his grandfather and namesake, a military man who seized power in 1921 and founded the Pahlavi dynasty. Under his autocratic rule, Iran was dragged towards the modern age with roads and railways. The veil was outlawed.
But Mr Pahlavi contends that the failure of his family to advance democracy in parallel with "modernity" sowed the seeds of its downfall. He appeals to the disparate opposition, including many leftwing groups in Europe, to come down from their "high horses". If the post-Taliban Afghans can organise a loya jirga - council of elders - to decide their future, then why not the Iranians, he asks.
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