New SARS disaster looms in Beijing

Asia Times ^ | 06.03.03

[jerseygirl]

poltergeist? :)

[aristeides]

The government wants us to stay calm and be good little consumers.

[flamefront]

Countries are just waiting for martial law to be declared to enforce mass quarantine before they go ahead themselves. Of course China never will declare martial law, since it already is in that state. So some other country will have to be the first. When the next shoe drops...

I am sure news reporting about the potentially infected migrants who fled Beijing into the Chinese countryside will remain nil.

[Judith Anne]

That's a really good article about China hampering the world fight on SARS. Without coming right out and saying the Chinese are liars, it pointed out specifically how they do NOT cooperate and share information that could be vital to other locations facing outbreaks.

All I can conclude from that is that China has something to hide--the TRUE numbers they are dealing with.

[flamefront]

> China said to hamper world fight on SARS .

President George W. Bush went out of his way yesterday to praise Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, for his handling of the Sars crisis.

In their first meeting since Mr Hu became president, Mr Bush congratulated Mr Hu during their talks at the G8 summit on the decision to treat the spread of the disease in China in a "transparent" way.

oops

[Judith Anne]

That is indeed official Chinese policy, but it has not filtered down to the hands-on level. I do believe President Bush may have been damning him with faint praise...at least he complimented the man on the the thing the Chinese were doing worst. Think about it. ;-D

[Beck_isright]

Thank you for more bad news. With a long haul truck driver coming down with SARS and the fear I have of the Canadian snowbirds spreading it next winter, I think I'll go dig my bomb shelter now. What a bad year we have coming up in the medical side of things.

[IncPen]

See #36...

[DannyTN]

What worries me is that China and Canada are setting the examples for all other government's to follow.

Every government now has to decide whether to honestly address SARS and suffer an immediate economic impact as the public reacts. Or to try to cover up SARS and risk a greater spread both in their domain and without.

So far China and Canada has opted for the cover-up. One wonders how many other governments have already been influenced by their cowardice.

[DannyTN]

What worries me is that China and Canada are setting the examples for all other government's to follow.

Every government now has to decide whether to honestly address SARS and suffer an immediate economic impact as the public reacts. Or to try to cover up SARS and risk a greater spread both in their domain and without.

So far China and Canada has opted for the cover-up. One wonders how many other governments have already been influenced by their cowardice.

[Judith Anne]

That's a really good observation.

[FairOpinion]

"The only way these skyrocketing graphs could flat-line SO ABRUPTLY is China cheating on their reporting, and to stop reporting any new SARS cases as 'probable'."
---

I am afraid you are right. It doesn't make sense that it would stay that flat.

[farmfriend]

More like Jaws or Piranha

[Prince Charles]

I think it was a Taiwan doctor on this thread:

Panel of top physicians warns Congress about SARS

[Future Useless Eater]

If you would be inclined to make some extrapolations and guesstimations based on last known good data, I'd LOVE to see the numbers. I'm guessing you already have.

Fine, this is mostly just conjecture, but here goes...

Based on the data trends prior to the cheating that started may 10th, I'd guess China now has roughly 8400 'probable' SARS cases instead of the 5300 they claim.

But two things make me feel it is probably worse than that...

Just before May 10th, I can see that SARS had gotten a small but definate foothold in 4 or 5 MORE provinces. Not enough so as to dent the overall numbers, but noticable. Those outbreaks have probably grown considerably, which would add even more to my 'guesstimate'.

Secondly, this thread suggests HOW and WHY the abrupt data shift occurred. I believe this story about the Beiyuan Gardens could be an example of the new 'norm' in China, and not an exception to the rule.

Possibly, starting May 10th or 14th, residents with fevers were told to stay home instead of hospitalization. (China's healthcare system had presumably overloaded and shut down). We can surmise this from reports of hospital workers getting sick themselves, others (doctors and nurses) for a while shoving the work onto the new interns/residents, and yet others outright quitting.

I doubt right now if China cares if residents expire in their housing projects like Beiyuan Gardens, just so long as they remain there and don't spread it to outsiders. That would be their reason for installing thermal sensors at all the exits of the complex. They are essentially isolating the sick within that complex instead of in a hospital.

This poorer method of isolation would also lead to higher infections. But none of these people are being recorded as SARS patients, and if they die aren't being being recorded as SARS deaths.

Maybe China has decided to just contain this as best they can, and see if it will burn itself out.

[_Jim]

New SARS disaster looms in Beijing

Geez .. just so long as it's not galloping across the globe into *my* hemisphere ...

[_Jim]

The only way these skyrocketing graphs could flat-line SO ABRUPTLY is China cheating on their reporting,

BZZZZZT!

Conclusion failure!

C'mon now - WHAT'S the other 'way'?

[_Jim]

Every government now has to decide whether to honestly address SARS

Oh brother ... is THAT ever a simplistic view.

Forget about public pressure huh?

THERE was *only* a letter posted in this thread by some 'citizens of China' pleaing for additional quarantine methods - do you honestly think that *nothing* will ever be done *anywhere* when this disease begins to be seen?

[_Jim]

What worries me is that China and Canada are setting the examples for all other government's to follow.

I guess that accounts for Hong Kong 'getting their numbers down'?

Not!

(Do you guys *really* read what you post before hitting the 'send' key?)

[Future Useless Eater]

Note: I'm not interested in arguing with our local SARS disruptor
[ _Jim ] and I recommend the rest of you avoid encouraging
him also.