[RonF]

Precedent, yes. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm asking if you think it's likely.

[wideawake]

I think the age of the Pope-elect is the last criterion considered.

The cardinalate tends to split up into impromptu factions, each of which puts forward compromise candidates which they think will lead the Church in the right direction while being palatable to the other factions.

Things might change next time around, however. The new rules allow an election by a simple majority after a certain number of failed attempts to reach a two-thirds majority.

[wideawake]

Re: likelihood. I think that younger is probably preferred to older, but the younger cardinals have less of a track record and have had less time to build a reputation.

[victim soul]

I think it is very likely because many may regret they elected a young pope John Paul II and don't want to have another long lived papal reign.

However, in the end the Holy Spirit will triumph.