I stand by my statement.
First graders aren't exposed to contractions. By the time he is 15 (assuming he is conscientious about learning) he will not make this error, and he is even then only approaching adulthood.
I did not mean to imply that children who make that error are illiterate, but anyone over 21 who does certainly is.
Bull-bleep. I won spelling bees as a child, taught English Lit & Comp, am an avid reader, have written thousands of pages of fiction and non-fiction, and occasionally I'll write "you're" instead of "your".
But it's nice to know the grammar police are on duty.