Posted on 05/19/2003 7:19:18 AM PDT by cogitator
Scientists outline major climate changes in Ireland
DUBLIN (AFP) May 15, 2003 Ireland's climate is heating up and if the trend continues it will have a major impact on most aspects of life in the country, according to research data being presented Thursday at an environmental conference in Dublin.
Environment Minister Martin Cullen told the opening session of the two-day conference, entitled 'Pathways to a Sustainable Future,' that the research would assist in formulating policies to deal with the likely impact of water management, flooding, agricultural changes and coastal zone management.
Irish temperatures have been increasing at a quarter of a degree Centigrade per decade over the last century, according to Rowan Fealy, from the Department of Geography at Maynooth university, west of Dublin.
Fealy was due to present his research to the conference on Friday.
Ireland's most significant climate change came in the 1990s -- the warmest decade on record, Fealy was to tell the conference, which was being held to mark the tenth anniversary of the government's Environmental Protection Agency.
"There has been a significant decrease in the number of frost days and a general increase in the number of hot days," he was to say.
Fealy was to add that rainfall in the northwest rose by 40 percent during the last century.
This suggests "that by 2055, Ireland will be experiencing wetter winters with increases in the order of 10-11 percent nationally, with the north and west coasts experiencing increases of up to 20 percent," he was to say.
"The scenarios for summer precipitation indicate national decreases in the order of up to 25 percent, but the east and southeast coasts may experience decreases in the region of 30-40 percent."
That's an unpredictable situation. If deep-water formation in the north Atlantic slowed considerably or stopped, that would lead to much colder conditions in the region. But no one knows the "trigger conditions" that would cause such a change (it's a combination of the temperature and salinity of the surface water, which are influenced by a host of factors). The only thing that most scientists agree on about this is: IF it did happen, the changes would be very fast, perhaps a several-degree drop in regional temperatures in 10-20 years.
Already started - the cars already have windshield vipers...
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