DISASTER IN WAITING [Iraq]

NY Post ^ | 5/16/03 | JONATHAN FOREMAN

[Ranger]

It's true that more Iraqis in Basra have power than ever before, but most of Baghdad is dark at night, and that simply wasn't the case until three days into the war.

The rules of engagement - which have not changed - always allowed troops to fire on looters or any armed person if they feel threatened. The only change - an overdue one - is that they have been ordered to be more aggressive in their policing duties.

[Ranger]

The ineptness of the post war administration of Iraq is dumbfounding.

[Wonder Warthog]

"The ineptness of the post war administration of Iraq is dumbfounding."

And you know this because "you read it in the paper"---right.

Geez--give me a break. The war is just over and the "civilian reform administration" has only been working on the situation for a couple of weeks.

Check out how long it took in comparable situations in Germany and Japan post-WWII (under US administration) or Palestine, Kosovo, etc., etc. ad infinitum, ad nauseum (under UN administration).

They STILL don't have reliable electric power in Bosnia after HOW MANY years of "reform administration" governed by the UN?? The Iraqis should be thanking their lucky stars that the US is keeping the UN out of things.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Unbelievable.

[eyespysomething]

The problem would be we tried to be too "nice", when we should have cracked down from the start. Curb the lawlessness, get some stability, then worry about the democracy thing.

[LS]

Well, the Post is hardly the Times. I tend to believe this. Fox is reporting the same thing. There is no reason for power not to be on after 30 days, and no reason for the Army not to have secured entire neighborhoods that can be policed by some Iraqis, allowing our guys to move to the next sector.

I wonder if we now have too many missions---securing the cities, "finding the WMDs," looking for the Ba'ath guys. Maybe we should focus on one at a time.

[Wonder Warthog]

"There is no reason for power not to be on after 30 days, and no reason for the Army not to have secured entire neighborhoods that can be policed by some Iraqis, allowing our guys to move to the next sector."

Power "is" on--just not on 24/7 in all areas (according to the stories "I" have seen). Suppose generators have been destroyed (highly likely)?? You can't even get industrial scale generators SHIPPED IN in less than a month.

I am sick and tired of this "we should have done it better and faster" crap. Find even ONE historical incident of ANY major army invasion where civilian infrastructure was restored in a month. The army and civilian adminstration is, in my book, doing an EXCELLENT job--FAR better than the UN has EVER done.

[ckilmer]

what I find shocking is that I'm NOT reading stories about how fast Iraq oil production is increasing. Instead I just finished a piece about how oil trucks from turkey were bringing gasoline to mosul.

the USA has some very good oil people. they should be bringing Iraq oil production up to speed pronto.

[LS]

I don't think the problem is that we need to ship in tranformers, though. It shouldn't be that tough to get the existing stuff back up and running unless it was totally destroyed.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

I also remember hearing LIVE from an Iraqi that power problems are common in Baghdad. Why do you think there are so many generators there?

We are being asked to fix problems caused by Saddam and his regime almost overnight that have plaqued them for decades.

Whatda think? We got a power plant in our back pocket? Do you really think that the BILLIONS Saddam's family stole went into an electric facility for "his" people?

Systemic problems are not solved by appying situation solutions. And vice-versa.

[Wonder Warthog]

"It shouldn't be that tough to get the existing stuff back up and running unless it was totally destroyed."

And your expertise that allows you to make this value judgment is???

Generators, transformers, switchboxes--all of which has to be COMPATIBLE with the existing installed infrastructure (you can't simply grab a generator from the US and stick it in--there are things like voltage and frequency to be considered). If Iraq uses a 220VAC, 50Hz transmission system, then the equipment might have to come from Europe. We're talking BIG EQUIPMENT for central power station use--not stuff you can go down to the local hardware store and pick up off the shelf. It takes TIME go locate it, order it, and get it shipped in. Standard delivery times for even ordinary equipment runs 4-6 weeks. Heavy duty equipment like we are talking about takes longer.

Now, if it gets to be three months or so, and the problems still haven't been alleviated, there might be grounds to talk about what a lousy job the USA is doing---but I'm not ready to buy that perspective after just a month.

[LS]

You are being WAYYY to defensive. In WW II, we carved out entire working airbases with generators and everything else in 48 hours on jungle islands.

I don't think your harangue is going to convince many Americans that we haven't been somewhat lax in this. Now, I don't think we necessarily HAD to promise that (electricity, etc.). But having done so, we do have an obligation to get it up and running, and I mean soon, because like it or not, Iraqis will soon use the old "Mussolini" argument that "at least we had electricity under Saddam." Don't think they won't.

[Wonder Warthog]

..."we carved out entire working airbases with generators and everything else in 48 hours on jungle islands"

Which is not nearly the same thing, and you know it. In an opertion like that, all equipment is pre-planned, pre-purchased, and already in the pipeline (and today, probably even on ships or warehouses in Diego Garcia). The military has special equipment (generators and switching stations) that are pre-fab and ready to set up.

Going into Iraq, we probably had little information about exactly what equipment was there, and certainly couldn't know until after the fact exactly what was destroyed and needed to be replaced.

ANY American or anyone else who think that infrastructure repair can be done in a month after cessation of hostilities is an ignorant fool. I repeat an earlier comment--name ONE (just one) major military operation where this (infrastructure repair in one month) has EVER been done.

[LS]

And YOU well know that in 99% of military operations, such is not possible because our GOAL was to utterly destroy all "infrastructure." The concept of preserving the infrastructure for "the people" is quite new, and wasn't even fully tried in Kosovo or Bosnia.

I repeat to you, the SeeBees have established entire bases under combat conditions in less than 48 hours in a jungle environment---and if you think stuff is "prepositioned," you've never talked to a WW II vet about the constant SNAFUs.

The six wells were capped and the fires put out in less than two weeks. I don't see why getting the generators to work---unless they are totally evaporated by explosives---is that big a deal.

[Wonder Warthog]

"I repeat to you, the SeeBees have established entire bases under combat conditions in less than 48 hours in a jungle environment---and if you think stuff is "prepositioned," you've never talked to a WW II vet about the constant SNAFUs."

Those SNAFUS happened IN SPITE of a huge amount of pre-planning and prepositioning of supplies. I suggest you spend some time reading the published history of the massive logistics, planning, and technology effort that made it possible for those Seabees to do those things. Perhaps you don't know that the Quonset hut (and many other things of this sort) were INVENTED during World War II specifically to assist such operations.

Add to that the facts that bulldozing some trees, grading a runway, setting up some quonset huts, portable generators, and radios is not nearly as complex as replacing electrical generation infrastructure.

""The six wells were capped and the fires put out in less than two weeks. I don't see why getting the generators to work---unless they are totally evaporated by explosives---is that big a deal."

I've got news for you--the equipment for fighting oil well fires "is" pre-positioned, and was already available in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and most anywhere else in the "oil patch". Add to that the fact that it is the SAME equipment all the time---there is no need to match pre-installed infrastructure.

It isn't nearly as simple as just "getting generators to work". A high-explosive hit on a generator or transformer substation DESTROYS the functionality of the main hardware, which has to be REPLACED, not repaired. The actual installation takes minimal time compared to identifying what has been destroyed, locating vendors, executing the necessary purchases, and getting the stuff shipped to the location.

[Austin Willard Wright]

You have just made a powerful argument against foreign-imposed nation building. Some of us predicted this long ago. It is time to get out.

[LS]

Fine. Have it your way. I'm talking reality. We get those generators to work within two weeks, or we will have big problems, and you can make all the "prepositioning" arguments you want to the Iraqis.

[Wonder Warthog]

"You have just made a powerful argument against foreign-imposed nation building. Some of us predicted this long ago. It is time to get out."

I assume you mean "out of the UN"--and I agree.

[Wonder Warthog]

"We get those generators to work within two weeks, or we will have big problems, and you can make all the "prepositioning" arguments you want to the Iraqis."

Ah, yes--the "Iraqi street" will rise up and smite the Americans because they were too slow getting the electricity back on. I think not.