Posted on 05/14/2003 9:44:34 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
Less than a week before the meeting between Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Abu Mazen, Israeli security sources believe that Yasser Arafat is strengthening his hold on the Palestinian Authority.
Recently Arafat received an urgent request for $20,000 to buy 6,000 meters of cloth to make uniforms for the Palestinian police. Arafat approved and signed it and instructed Finance Minister Salam Fayyad to transfer the money.
Why is the chairman allocating funds, and why is he still involved with the security organizations, which should have been transferred to the supervision of the new prime minister, Abu Mazen? The IDF would also like to know.
But Arafat's business is hardly restricted to fashion. The sums he has been giving out lately, for various purposes, are described as an avalanche.
In addition to the many terrorist alerts (58 this week with special emphasis on Nakba day today), military intelligence and the Shin Bet are in rare accord that Abu Mazen is showing weakness in the face of Arafat's maneuvers.
Abu Mazen is having difficulty gaining public support, without which he will not be able to declare war on the terror organizations. At present he appears to prefer negotiations with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Abu Mazen is already in touch with Hamas leadership abroad in an effort to launch a new round of Cairo talks next week. Sources believe that Abu Mazen's painful journey to the prime minister's office has considerably damaged his status.
He conducted negotiations fraught with mistakes, alienated the Fatah, and was forced to give in to Arafat repeatedly. "Abu Mazen won no victory over Arafat," an Israeli security source says. "He formed a cabinet only under Egyptian and American pressure. The cabinet's legitimacy is shaky, it acts in Arafat's shadow and is burdened by huge expectations. Abu Mazen is starting out bruised and bleeding, and must navigate his way among three mine fields - Americans, Israelis and Palestinians."
Part of the problem is money. In the past weeks, Arafat is re-emerging as the one holding the purse strings. His bureau is allocating funds to various entities, from Fatah activists in Bethlehem through PA ministers to security groups in Jenin.
Can Treasurer Fayyad decide not to approve the allocations, a senior Palestinian was asked by an Israeli officer. "Woe betide Fayyad if he fails to implement an order Arafat signed."
Israel may be disappointed with Fayyad, but is still pinning hopes on Mohamed Dahlan. Many of the concessions Abu Mazen made to Arafat were intended to preserve Dahlan's status in the new cabinet. Now Abu Mazen and Dahlan are negotiating with Jibril Rajoub, whom they need especially to rehabilitate the infrastructure of the security apparatus in the West Bank. They can either appoint Rajoub police inspector general or reinstate him in his previous post of head of preventive security in the West Bank."
Rajoub, who recently returned from medical treatment overseas, has not yet recovered from the blow he received from the Shin Bet on one hand and Arafat on the other at the beginning of Operation Defensive Shield, when the IDF besieged his headquarters in Bitouniyah. Now Rajoub will have to consider whether to reconcile with Dahlan, whom he had accused of helping his downfall, and whether to accept the latter's authority.
Dahlan, on his part, is expected to make his peace with his old adversary Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, whom he will probably meet next week. At the beginning of the Oslo days, when Mofaz was the commander of the Central Command and Dahlan the West Bank's strong man, the two regarded each other as friends. But when the second intifada erupted Dahlan called Mofaz a "war criminal" and severed all ties with him.
Despite the difficulties, some Fatah activists expect Abu Mazen and his men to confront Hamas. But to do so the Palestinian security organizations will have to rebuild at least some confidence with their Israeli colleagues. Meanwhile, this seems almost impossible.
Yesterday's incident south of Netzarim is another indication of this. An IDF force killed three armed Palestinians, whom Israel describes as Islamic Jihad activists who attacked the soldiers. The Palestinians say they were PA policemen who were patroling the area to prevent mortar fire.
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