Zimbabwe -- Smoke signals from Pretoria

ZWNews ^ | May 12, 2003 | (Comment)

[Clive]

Last Friday, in his regular contribution to ANC Today, Thabo Mbeki warned of a vicious circle in Zimbabwe. "The longer the problems of Zimbabwe remain unresolved, the more entrenched poverty will become. The longer this persists, the greater will be the degree of social instability, as the poor try to respond to the pains of hunger. The more protracted this instability, the greater will be the degree of polarisation and generalised social and political conflict. To respond to this, the state will inevitably have to emphasise issues of law and order, even as it has ever fewer means to address the needs of the people. As it responds in this manner, the less will it have the possibility to address anything else other than the issue of law and order. The more it does this, the greater will be the degree of the absence of order and stability." So far, so old hat - but an improvement on his previous statements on the "progress" being made in Zimbabwe. Or is it?

For another view of the thinking in Pretoria, one could do worse than reading the Johannesburg Sunday Times, which has, by repute, an excellent relationship with the South African President's Office. Yesterday, in a week when South African political news has been dominated by the death of Walter Sisulu, the paper carried no less than three articles speculating on Mugabe's successor. In a long commentary entitled Saving Zimbabwe: Mission Impossible, the paper painted a picture of a weary and worried Robert Mugabe, rocking back and forth in his chair while his aides looked on in silence. The trio of African presidents had left the marquee in which he was sitting in the grounds of State House, where they had all just eaten lunch. "After years of denial, Mugabe has finally conceded that his country is in the midst of a growing crisis - economic and otherwise," the paper asserts. After a brief tour through Zanu PF contenders for the leadership - Makoni, Mnangagwa and Moyo - the article then goes on to rubbish Zimbabwe's opposition party, the MDC, as faction-riven, inexperienced, and - startlingly - with no mass support. Please. Even the rigged election results gave almost half the country's votes to the MDC.

A second article discusses more fully the suitability of the MDC as a governing party. The paper quotes - of all people - Jonathan Moyo saying that the "the average MDC MP is a disaster and the only change they could bring is to take us to the pre-Stone Age era. While a handful of them are promising, the majority of them are the antithesis of change and competence. In fact, they just need to go back to school." With enemies like that, who needs friends? Ibbo Mandaza - hardly without a vested interest - is also allowed his quota of column inches to cast doubt on the opposition party's competence. "I don't think the MDC would be able to run the government on its own as it is," he says. "They have a lot of intellectuals around them, but suffer a serious lack of people with managerial experience." As if the current ministerial incumbents have demonstrated their capacity to manage even the proverbial brewery party.

A third article then examines five presidential contenders in more detail. Again, Morgan Tsvangirai and the opposition are slated. Tsvangirai, the article declaims, is "unsophisticated", "the least qualified" candidate, and with "no understanding of, or interest in, African politics". Simba Makoni? His chances of filling Mugabe' s shoes are "about as good as Ian Smith's". Sydney Sekeremayi? "Simply too bland for president...not a man capable of original leadership." Jonathan Moyo? "An infant in the realpolitik of Harare, who will have reached his sell-by date the moment Mugabe leaves office. He couldn't command enough votes for a mayoral position, let alone the presidency." And who does this writer favour as the strongest contender? Speaker of parliament, Emmerson Mnangagwa. "An exceptionally calculating man who intimately understands the nature of power," he writes. "A man who has a reputation in the West for getting things done and keeping the troops in line." While acknowledging Mnangagwa's lack of support within his own party, the writer counters that he has connections with "big money". And his reputation as a war criminal? "Any immunity Mugabe negotiates for himself before quitting office will include his most faithful lieutenants - and Mnangagwa certainly fits this category," the writer concludes. The writer of this third article? Newton Kanhema - once with a reputation for cutting investigative journalism, but most recently seen as Nairobi correspondent for the state-controlled Sunday Mail.

Having virtually disappeared from sight since the story broke of his push for power at the beginning of the year, Mnangagwa's name has now resurfaced, only days after Mbeki led the trio of presidents to Harare. Remember also Mnangagwa's enthusiastic welcome at the ANC conference in Cape Town last December. In his ANC Today contribution, Mbeki said: "Our own experience as a movement tells us unequivocally, that no lasting solution to the challenges that face Zimbabwe can be found, unless that solution comes from the people of Zimbabwe themselves. It tells us that no Zimbabweans with any pride in their country, and respect for themselves, will accept that another should determine their destiny. South Africa would never treat Zimbabwe as its tenth province." In this game of smoke and mirrors, which is the smoke signal, and which is the mirror?

[Clive]

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[Nebr FAL owner]

The goon that replaces Mugabe will be another ANC communist & things will go from really really bad to absolutely appalling then degenerate into a abysmally horrendous clusterf*ck. And it will be the people of Zimbabwe/Rhodesia that will suffer cause the politicians are going make sure they get as much loot as possible out of the country then skip town themselves.