The Bush administration better think long nad hard about that then. Bush Sr made the same mistake in possibly selling out gun owners : result - one term.
If the AWB gets to his desk and he signs it you can kiss his re-eelection GOODBYE.
Key word: IF.
If the RKBA community feels free to not bother Congress in 2004, and Congress gets the impression that there isn't much opposition to the AWB renewal, it will get renewed.
If that's the case, then the RKBA community deserves whatever they get.
I have absolutely no doubt that if this bill is passed, especially since it will probably contain a vast expansion of the AW definition, and Bush signs it, his re-election chances will suffer. How much is uncertain, but unless he has changed the minds of a hell of a lot of voters since 2000, where he won be the narrowest margin I have seen since the Nixon-JFK era, any re-election will be by a slim margin.
Rove maybe a political genius, but even he must understand the importance of keeping the conservative voter base on his side. And the RKBA issue is important with that base, along with some other obvious matters. Bush's people should be shaking in their boots about the possibility of this renewed bill coming to his desk barely two months before the general election. The Senate version will be passed in the Senate. The House is where this must be stopped. Bush has put his butt on the line with the idea that the House Republicans will save him from having to deal with this bill. If I were he, I would be damn anxious to make sure that I didn't have to take this poison pill.