Dems ponder dumping candidate to beat Bonilla

The Hill ^ | 5/6/03 | Geoff Earle

[LdSentinal]

Some Democratic Party insiders in Washington and Texas think Democrats can unseat sixth-term Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla next year -- provided they dump last year’s nominee, former Texas Secretary of State Henry Cuellar.

Last year, Cuellar nearly knocked off Bonilla, holding him to 51.5 percent of the vote. Normally, party leaders would be salivating at the chance to defeat Bonilla in a rematch.

But some Democrats say that the stars were in perfect alignment last year for a Democratic win in the 23rd District and that Cuellar squandered the opportunity.

"It was a serial nightmare trying to get him to run an intelligent race," said one experienced party operative from the state.

Tony Sanchez, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, helped drive a substantial turnout in the district, which is 66 percent Hispanic and includes Laredo.

Bonilla, who had easily won his last few races, failed to launch a full-scale attack on Cuellar.

"Bonilla never ran a negative spot against the guy," said the party operative. "This guy runs again, Bonilla isn't going to be asleep. He had the golden egg, and he let it break."

A Democratic aide said Cuellar refused to adequately work Bexar County and other areas outside his base of Laredo.

Democratic strategists say it is the only naturally Democratic district in the state still represented by a Republican and is the best chance for a pickup in a delegation already 17-15 Democratic.

A spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) said, "The DCCC wants to find the best candidate" to take on Bonilla. But a source close to the DCCC said, "Henry Cuellar is not the person that the DCCC wants."

Cuellar, in a phone interview from his Laredo law office, said he will be looking at the race again. "I haven't completely decided on it," he said. Cuellar said he is waiting to see whether the Texas Legislature decides to redraw the state's congressional districts and whether the district changes substantially.

As it is drawn now, "a Democrat can win that district," he said. "I think I proved it -- that it's possible." Cuellar noted that he got into the race late, was outfinanced by Bonilla and still nearly pulled off an upset. He said that if he were given an extra week to campaign, he would have won.

Bonilla, meanwhile, attributes the closeness of the race to having Sanchez at the top of the ticket. "It was a huge tidal wave," he said. "But we don't see that happening again."

"People didn't think I had a race -- in many cases didn't know my opponent's name," Bonilla continued. But without a hot gubernatorial race this time, Bonilla, a close congressional adviser to President Bush, predicted Democratic turnout would be back to normal. Plus, Bush will be at the top of the ticket this time, helping to drive GOP turnout in his home state.

Bonilla chalked up his close race to unusual circumstances and denied being caught off guard. "We campaigned hard," he said. "Why go negative on somebody who nobody knows in the first place?"

Cuellar said that after 10 months of campaigning, most voters knew both candidates. He is identified with several programs he helped establish while serving 14 years in the state Legislature, including scholarships that bear his name and legislation dealing with border towns called colonias.

Cuellar dismissed talk that the DCCC wasn't behind him, saying House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called him last year after the election. "She encouraged me to do it again," he said. "I told her that I would be definitely looking at that."

Other Democrats mentioned as possible candidates are Laredo Mayor Betty Flores and state Reps. Richard Raymond and Pete Gallego. "We're looking for another Hispanic candidate," said a Democratic source.

But Cuellar, who represented Laredo in the state House, said, "If there's primary opposition, I feel confident I can win that . . . I know how to get the votes . . . The next time, if we just had a go at it, we will win this race."

[jimkress]

The 'Rats will still nominate Cuellar and then, just before the election, force him to withdraw. Then, they'll name the person they really want to run.

SOP for the 'Rats.

[Shugee]

Henry Bonilla is very well known in Bexar county, where he worked as a reporter, as is his highly visible wife, newscaster Deborah Knapp Bonilla.

Cuellar underestimated the importance of the Bexar County vote and Bonilla's influence there.

The Democratic Party in Texas has some real problems in the area of getting viable Hispanic canidates that don't self-destruct. Some examples that come to mind are Henry Cisneros, Dan Morales, and Tony Sanchez.