Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950 -

intellicast.com ^ | March 10, 2003 | Joe D'Aleo Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND RECORD SNOWCOVER A KEY TO THIS WINTER
Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950

Written March 10, 2003
by Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

In our winter outlook in the fall we showed why the oceans were in a mode, which favored enhanced high latitude blocking, which would make this El Nino colder than the ones we were used to in recent decades.

The degree of high latitude blocking is measured by two climate indices, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. In recent stories, we showed how the negative mode of both modes favored colder and often snowier than normal conditions in the eastern United States and Europe, even in El Nino winters. The indices were at or near the most negative values observed since 1950 especially during the early winter from October to December.

October to December Arctic Oscillation values were the most negative since 1950. This high latitude blocking helped generate large polar and arctic air masses that helped build deep snowcover and make the winter very cold for many areas in the hemisphere.

This high latitude blocking helped generate extensive polar and arctic air masses that brought extreme cold to places in the Northern Hemisphere. Here in North America, the flow pattern entrained frigid Siberian air to join with the cold high pressure building in Canada. The coldest air was focused on the eastern states.

With the large cold air masses came much more snow than normal across the hemisphere. In fact, according to the data compiled at the CPC, the extent of the Northern Hemisphere's snowcover from October through February was the greatest since records were started in 1973. It even exceeded the deep snowcover of the winters of the late 1970s.

October to February 2002/03 average snowcover for the Northern Hemisphere was at the highest level in the data set eclipsing the previous record set in the winter of 1976/77. From CPC: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA

PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER FROM OCTOBER TO FEBRUARY
El Nino winters are characterized dependably by a ridge in the western parts of North America and a trough in the eastern areas. With the productive Polar Regions and extensive snowcover, temperatures in the trough in the eastern states averaged persistently below normal. Temperatures during the October to February period ranked among the top ten winters since 1950 in many cities in the northeast.

In Boston, it was the second coldest such period just behind 1976/77.

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	35.42
2002/03	35.72

In New York City, the period ranked 4th coldest since 1950 behind the two memorable cold winters in the late 1970s (1976/77 and 1977/78) and the winter of 1967/68.

CENTRAL PARK, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.55
1967/68	38.25
1977/78	39.35
2002/03	39.70

In Rochester, New York, the winter ranked 7th coldest since 1950, tied with the winter of 1969/70 (our top analog year).

ROCHESTER, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	29.48
1993/94	30.38
1962/63	30.38
1981/82	31
1978/79	31.44
1969/70	31.56
2002/03	31.56

In Baltimore (BWI Airport), the winter ranked 3rd coldest behind 1976/77 and 1962/63.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.04
1962/63	37.16
2002/03	38.63

What a difference a year can make. Many of these same locations during the same period last year found temperatures ranking among the warmest on record as resurgent solar activity produced a shrunken polar vortex and enhanced zonal flow, which in turn maximized the maritime influence on the continents and limited the extent of the snowcover. It also led to near record drought that lingered through the summer in many areas.

These two years demonstrate how many factors combine to choreograph the weather and climate as we march from season to season and year-to-year on our ride through time.

[ancient_geezer]

OOPs!, the formatting really came out weird that time. Here it is again with proper links & format that works:

 

Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time 

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

Temperature after C.R. Scotese
CO2 after R.A. Berner, 1994

•     There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 900 ppm or about 2.5 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Ordovician Period, exceeding 6000 ppm -- more than 16 times higher than today.

•     The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today.
  
  To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age, with CO2 concentrations nearly 15 times higher than today-- 5500 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.

 

CO2-Temperature Correlations

• "(1) correlation does not prove causation, (2) cause must precede effect, and (3) when attempting to evaluate claims of causal relationships between different parameters, it is important to have as much data as possible in order to weed out spurious correlations.
  
  ***
  
  Consider, for example, the study of Fischer et al. (1999), who examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years.  Over this extended period, the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were those associated with the terminations of the last three ice ages; and for each of these climatic transitions, earth's air temperature rose well in advance of any increase in atmospheric CO2.  In fact, the air's CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm.  Such findings have been corroborated by Mudelsee (2001), who examined the leads/lags of atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature over an even longer time period, finding that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years over the past 420,000 years."

[ see also: Indermuhle et al. (2000), Monnin et al. (2001), Yokoyama et al. (2000), Clark and Mix (2000) ]

• "Other studies periodically demonstrate a complete uncoupling of CO2 and temperature "

[see: Petit et al. (1999), Staufer et al. (1998), Cheddadi et al., (1998), Raymo et al., 1998, Pagani et al. (1999), Pearson and Palmer (1999), Pearson and Palmer, (2000) ]

• "Considered in their entirety, these several results present a truly chaotic picture with respect to any possible effect that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have on global temperature.  Clearly, atmospheric CO2 is not the all-important driver of global climate change the climate alarmists make it out to be."

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age, with CO2 concentrations nearly 15 times higher than today-- 5500 ppm

How can the Global Warming Proponents ignore the kind of facts that are around?

[ancient_geezer]

When a fact doesn't support the political agenda, its ignored.