Posted on 05/05/2003 8:53:25 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND RECORD SNOWCOVER A KEY TO THIS WINTER
Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950
Written March 10, 2003
by Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist
In our winter outlook in the fall we showed why the oceans were in a mode, which favored enhanced high latitude blocking, which would make this El Nino colder than the ones we were used to in recent decades.
The degree of high latitude blocking is measured by two climate indices, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. In recent stories, we showed how the negative mode of both modes favored colder and often snowier than normal conditions in the eastern United States and Europe, even in El Nino winters. The indices were at or near the most negative values observed since 1950 especially during the early winter from October to December.
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October to December Arctic Oscillation values were the most negative since 1950. This high latitude blocking helped generate large polar and arctic air masses that helped build deep snowcover and make the winter very cold for many areas in the hemisphere. |
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October to February 2002/03 average snowcover for the Northern Hemisphere was at the highest level in the data set eclipsing the previous record set in the winter of 1976/77. From CPC: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA |
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
|
Year
|
Average Temperature
|
1976/77
|
35.42
|
2002/03
|
35.72
|
CENTRAL PARK, NEW YORK
|
Year
|
Average Temperature
|
1976/77
|
37.55
|
1967/68
|
38.25
|
1977/78
|
39.35
|
2002/03
|
39.70
|
ROCHESTER, NEW YORK
|
Year
|
Average Temperature
|
1976/77
|
29.48
|
1993/94
|
30.38
|
1962/63
|
30.38
|
1981/82
|
31
|
1978/79
|
31.44
|
1969/70
|
31.56
|
2002/03
|
31.56
|
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND
|
Year
|
Average Temperature
|
1976/77
|
37.04
|
1962/63
|
37.16
|
2002/03
|
38.63
|
Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ). Temperature after C.R. Scotese
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- "(1) correlation does not prove causation, (2) cause must precede effect, and (3) when attempting to evaluate claims of causal relationships between different parameters, it is important to have as much data as possible in order to weed out spurious correlations.
***
Consider, for example, the study of Fischer et al. (1999), who examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years. Over this extended period, the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were those associated with the terminations of the last three ice ages; and for each of these climatic transitions, earth's air temperature rose well in advance of any increase in atmospheric CO2. In fact, the air's CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm. Such findings have been corroborated by Mudelsee (2001), who examined the leads/lags of atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature over an even longer time period, finding that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years over the past 420,000 years."[ see also: Indermuhle et al. (2000), Monnin et al. (2001), Yokoyama et al. (2000), Clark and Mix (2000) ]
- "Other studies periodically demonstrate a complete uncoupling of CO2 and temperature "
[see: Petit et al. (1999), Staufer et al. (1998), Cheddadi et al., (1998), Raymo et al., 1998, Pagani et al. (1999), Pearson and Palmer (1999), Pearson and Palmer, (2000) ]
- "Considered in their entirety, these several results present a truly chaotic picture with respect to any possible effect that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have on global temperature. Clearly, atmospheric CO2 is not the all-important driver of global climate change the climate alarmists make it out to be."
How can the Global Warming Proponents ignore the kind of facts that are around?
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