Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950 -

intellicast.com ^ | March 10, 2003 | Joe D'Aleo Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND RECORD SNOWCOVER A KEY TO THIS WINTER
Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950

Written March 10, 2003
by Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

In our winter outlook in the fall we showed why the oceans were in a mode, which favored enhanced high latitude blocking, which would make this El Nino colder than the ones we were used to in recent decades.

The degree of high latitude blocking is measured by two climate indices, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. In recent stories, we showed how the negative mode of both modes favored colder and often snowier than normal conditions in the eastern United States and Europe, even in El Nino winters. The indices were at or near the most negative values observed since 1950 especially during the early winter from October to December.

October to December Arctic Oscillation values were the most negative since 1950. This high latitude blocking helped generate large polar and arctic air masses that helped build deep snowcover and make the winter very cold for many areas in the hemisphere.

This high latitude blocking helped generate extensive polar and arctic air masses that brought extreme cold to places in the Northern Hemisphere. Here in North America, the flow pattern entrained frigid Siberian air to join with the cold high pressure building in Canada. The coldest air was focused on the eastern states.

With the large cold air masses came much more snow than normal across the hemisphere. In fact, according to the data compiled at the CPC, the extent of the Northern Hemisphere's snowcover from October through February was the greatest since records were started in 1973. It even exceeded the deep snowcover of the winters of the late 1970s.

October to February 2002/03 average snowcover for the Northern Hemisphere was at the highest level in the data set eclipsing the previous record set in the winter of 1976/77. From CPC: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA

PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER FROM OCTOBER TO FEBRUARY
El Nino winters are characterized dependably by a ridge in the western parts of North America and a trough in the eastern areas. With the productive Polar Regions and extensive snowcover, temperatures in the trough in the eastern states averaged persistently below normal. Temperatures during the October to February period ranked among the top ten winters since 1950 in many cities in the northeast.

In Boston, it was the second coldest such period just behind 1976/77.

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	35.42
2002/03	35.72

In New York City, the period ranked 4th coldest since 1950 behind the two memorable cold winters in the late 1970s (1976/77 and 1977/78) and the winter of 1967/68.

CENTRAL PARK, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.55
1967/68	38.25
1977/78	39.35
2002/03	39.70

In Rochester, New York, the winter ranked 7th coldest since 1950, tied with the winter of 1969/70 (our top analog year).

ROCHESTER, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	29.48
1993/94	30.38
1962/63	30.38
1981/82	31
1978/79	31.44
1969/70	31.56
2002/03	31.56

In Baltimore (BWI Airport), the winter ranked 3rd coldest behind 1976/77 and 1962/63.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.04
1962/63	37.16
2002/03	38.63

What a difference a year can make. Many of these same locations during the same period last year found temperatures ranking among the warmest on record as resurgent solar activity produced a shrunken polar vortex and enhanced zonal flow, which in turn maximized the maritime influence on the continents and limited the extent of the snowcover. It also led to near record drought that lingered through the summer in many areas.

These two years demonstrate how many factors combine to choreograph the weather and climate as we march from season to season and year-to-year on our ride through time.

[nopardons]

Should be KERRY; sorry. Ooopppppppppppppps.

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ping list.

[Rudder]

What is "high latitude blocking?"

[backhoe]

There is a novel, Fallen Angels, by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle and Michael Flynnthat takes as it's premise that we were overdue for an ice age, and industrial activity postponed it.

I have that book somewhere among my piles of "stuff..." it was rather amusing in places.

Earth First!

( We'll strip-mine the
other Planets later...)

[gridlock]

I'm sure we will be soon be bombarded with GLOBAL COOLING phobia.../i>

IIRC, until the mid '80's all of the eco-weenies were running around saying that industrial activity was blocking the sun, and that we were on the verge of triggering a new ice age. Then, one fine day, we all started to worry about global warming, instead.

[buffyt]

We have had one of the longest, coolest, mildest springs I can remember here on the Gulf Coast of Texas. Some years we run the AC all year, even in Dec. This year has been so lovely that I had the AC and heat off, and the windows open until a week ago. If this is gloBULL warming, bring it on! Lovely cool weather here!

[buffyt]

We moved to a town Lake Jackson, south of Houston in 1973. We have lived in LA three times since 1988. Lived in LA all last year. The weather patterns for both areas are the same as they have been since I have lived here. LA was just the same last year as it was when we lived there in 1988. Weather patterns are still the same.

[BOBTHENAILER]

These two years demonstrate how many factors combine to choreograph the weather and climate as we march from season to season and year-to-year on our ride through time.

What a viscious cycle we have created, the colder it gets (by-product of Global Warming), the more hydrocarbons we burn to stay warm. This has the effect of making it much warmer, or colder, or both, or something like that.

Burn liberals and liberal publications, not hydrocarbons.

[xp38]

I think the term you were looking for is heat islands.

[hellinahandcart]

It was darned cold here this winter. That's good. I hope it killed finally killed all the damned mosquitoes with West Nile...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Found this:

________________________________

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

This is an index of pressure patterns over the Arctic Ocean, usually centered near the north pole. During the warm phase, the upper level pressure is lower than the surrounding region, and thus tend to cut off cold air from crossing the pole. This in turn can reduce the amount of cold air across northern Canada and can have an impact on reducing the heights over Greenland and thus negating the developing of the cold phase of the NAO, ie less high latitude blocking. The cold phase on the other hand has the opposite effect, the pressure pattern is higher than across surrounding areas which can aid in what's called cross-polar flow. This is when bitterly cold arctic air over Siberia can cross the pole and flood into North America. Also the cold phase of the AO tend to help raise heights over Greenland as well thus aiding in the development of the cold phase of the NAO and high latitude blocking.

The above image is courtesy

University of Washington
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/analyses0500/ao_definition.html

Back To Winter Outlook!

[Coleus]

thanks

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Do check these links:

High and low index Arctic Oscillation (AO)

WEATHER ACTION INCREASES AFTER A DRY JANUARY

[Coleus]

So, how do we argue the global warming point?

Do we tell them that the earth is moving out on an ice age where it's supposed to get warmer or do we tell them that the earth is, in fact, getting cooler and is going into an ice age?

Or, the climate of the earth is cyclical with many factors and there are no concrete trends? or is the Sun getting warmer or is it sun spots which control the weather?

It's hard to win an argument with a liberal without the proper facts. This issue comes up with every election and it seems the Dems. always win since the pubs never come up with the same story and seem to flinch when asked.

[nopardons]

We've had, up here in New England, one of THE longest winters, with excessive snow falls ( from before Thanksgiving, until snow in mid April ! ) that I can remember. The oil prices shot up last fall and haven't fallen yet ; just to add even more to the misery level.

Global Warming ... my Aunt Fanny ! :-(

[ancient_geezer]

So, how do we argue the global warming point?

Just deal in facts:

 

The reality is a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over current levels, that the IPCC "story line" pretends, even if true, could not induce significant temperature change whatever its source.

Mankind's impact is only 0.28% of Total Greenhouse effect

" There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "

Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist
Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia,
and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service;
in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal

A Lukewarm Greenhouse

Climate Catastrophe, A spectroscopic Artifact?

Global Warming Score Card

---

 

Climatic temperature change, OTOH, generally gives rise to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration through changes of biomass, warming of ocean with release of CO2 from solution with rising temperatures.

CO2-Temperature Correlations

Climatic temperature is predominantly a consequence of Solar heating/cooling arising from variation of solar radiance,

Red Planet Warming;

Global Warming on Triton (Neptune's moon)

plus astronomical & geophysical events affecting surface & atmospheric albedo.

The Bottom Line:

 

Globally Averaged Atmospheric Temperatures
(NASA)

This chart shows the monthly temperature changes for the lower troposphere - Earth's atmosphere from the surface to 8 km, or 5 miles up. The temperature in this region is more strongly influenced by oceanic activity, particularly the "El Niño" and "La Niña" phenomena, which originate as changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The overall trend in the tropospheric data is near zero, being +0.04 C/decade through Feb 2002. Click on the chart to get the numerical data.

Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes
Brief Introduction to the History of Climate
by Richard A. Muller

Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle

Figure 1-1 Global warming

Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years

 

Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years

Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years

Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

 

---

 

Seems as though there is room for substantial doubt as to any negative effect human created CO2, Methane etc. may have on our Climate future.

At least these folks believe so:

Petition Project: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p357.htm

During the past 2 years, more than 17,100 basic and applied American scientists, two-thirds with advanced degrees, have signed the Global Warming Petition.

Specifically declaring:

"There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."

Signers of this petition so far include 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, and environmental scientists (select this link for a listing of these individuals) who are especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of carbon dioxide on the Earth's atmosphere and climate.

Signers of this petition also include 5,017 scientists whose fields of specialization in chemistry, biochemistry, biology, and other life sciences (select this link for a listing of these individuals) make them especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of carbon dioxide upon the Earth's plant and animal life.

Nearly all of the initial 17,100 scientist signers have technical training suitable for the evaluation of the relevant research data, and many are trained in related fields.

[Rudder]

Hey man, thanks for the wonderful links!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the additional great graphs!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

You are welcome!

[ancient_geezer]

You're welcome. One additional graph covering the last 600 million years.

Global Warming in reverse:

 

Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time 

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

Temperature after C.R. Scotese
CO2 after R.A. Berner, 1994

•     There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 900 ppm or about 2.5 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Ordovician Period, exceeding 6000 ppm -- more than 16 times higher than today.

•     The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today.
  
  To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age, with CO2 concentrations nearly 15 times higher than today-- 5500 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.

 

CO2-Temperature Correlations

• "(1) correlation does not prove causation, (2) cause must precede effect, and (3) when attempting to evaluate claims of causal relationships between different parameters, it is important to have as much data as possible in order to weed out spurious correlations.
  
  ***
  
  Consider, for example, the study of , who examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years.  Over this extended period, the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were those associated with the terminations of the last three ice ages; and for each of these climatic transitions, earth's air temperature rose well in advance of any increase in atmospheric CO2.  In fact, the air's CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm.  Such findings have been corroborated by , who examined the leads/lags of atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature over an even longer time period, finding that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years over the past 420,000 years."

[ see also: , , , ]

• "Other studies periodically demonstrate a complete uncoupling of CO2 and temperature "

[see: , , , , , , ]

• "Considered in their entirety, these several results present a truly chaotic picture with respect to any possible effect that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have on global temperature.  Clearly, atmospheric CO2 is not the all-important driver of global climate change the climate alarmists make it out to be."