Florida could be iffy in the future especially if Castro falls and all those Cubans switch partys (which ill bet they do if they dont go back to Cuba).Not likely, the cubans are the pariahs of the hispanic community. They don't fit in with the rest, including mexicans. In Miami, cubans are very successfull, and on average, tend to do better then whites there. Since many of them do not like marxism, they do not tend to support most government programs (Liberals despise them for this, calling them paranoid), and are more social conservative (especially the older cubans). They are the demographic that has used the republican party to achieve 2 things, both political and economic empowerment (Blacks chose political, asians chose economic). They are an anomoly with minorites and hispanics especially. There is little or no chance of them crossing over. The guys at DU hate them, with open vengence, as so many liberals, and the democratic party in the US has been openly hostile to them.
I dont know if any Republican will ever be a shoe in. Just look at the electoral map. Republicans will never win California....period and probably not New York. Florida could be iffy in the future especially if Castro falls and all those Cubans switch partys (which ill bet they do if they dont go back to Cuba). With all those states in the Democratic camp, I dont think its possible to win, we need at least one more big state other than Texas.
Never say never in politics , New York is shaping up to be a safe bet for the gop in 04 and by the way , California is very much in play with Bush out polling anyone in the democratic field. Florida has already been taken out play for the democrats. 2004 will not be a continuation of election 2000. Forget the old red blue map.