Hong Kong doctor warns 'Sars will be worse this winter'

The Sunday Telegraph ^ | May 4, 2003 | Stephen Vines

[MadIvan]

One of Hong Kong's leading medical investigators into Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has warned that an even wider global epidemic could occur next winter, even if the current outbreak proves to have peaked.

Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, a microbiologist and one of two leaders of the Sars investigation team at Hong Kong university, said that other forms of the Coronavirus, of which Sars is the most deadly variant, go dormant in summer and become active again in winter.

There was no reason to believe that the Sars virus would behave any differently. "This means that the coming winter may be even worse," he said. "There may be a bigger epidemic."

Dr Yuen, who treated Hong Kong's first Sars victim, pointed out that many people were carrying the virus even though they showed no symptoms. While they appeared to be fit, they were unwittingly transmitting the virus to others.

Yesterday, Hong Kong's director of health, Margaret Chan, sought to play down Dr Yuen's fears, which she described as "speculative". The rate of infection in Hong Kong at the moment is in decline. Yesterday, just 10 new cases of Sars were reported and nine people died.

The infection rate on the Chinese mainland, however, particularly in the capital, Beijing, is still high. More than 176 new cases were reported on Friday, and a further 181 yesterday.

Overall, more than 6,000 people have been infected worldwide and over 400 people have died.

In a trend that is alarming doctors in Hong Kong, residents who are now into their second month of living with the deadly virus are adopting a more relaxed attitude.

Fewer people are wearing face masks, business is picking up in cinemas, at restaurants and luxury hotels, and classes resumed at most secondary schools and universities last week.

More worryingly, a massive clean-up campaign has ended and some streets are again filled with mounds of rubbish and other refuse. Officials are urging residents not to relax their vigilance.

[MadIvan]

Uh oh.

Regards, Ivan

[MadIvan]

Bump!

[Chipata]

"Fewer people are wearing face masks"

A leading British doctor wrote to the Daily Telegraph recently and stated categorically that masks, surgical or otherwise, are of no use whatsoever in protecting against air-borne viruses.

[Billy_bob_bob]

China has such appalling sanitation practices that they are a hazard to the rest of the planet. When is the rest of the world going to confront China and demand that they quite literally clean their act up?

If China can build nuclear weapons and build ICBMs then they can certainly provide something as essential as basic sanitation to their entire population! Refusing to do so becomes a de facto declaration of biological warfare upon the rest of the world.

[zook]

A friend of mine here in Taiwan just posed this intriguing question: What happens next flu season when many many more people suddenly begin showing SARS-like symptoms? Unless they develop a quick sure fire test, all hell will break loose.

[SevenofNine]

Hey Ivan yeah

OH OH much worst this winter I wouldn't be suprise if hit US this winter right now China Taiwan are getting it

I know I try nip in the butt I don't see any relief YET

[Chipata]

"SevenofNine"

The most beautiful woman on TV, perhaps ever. Sigh.

[CanadianFella]

"SevenofNine" The most beautiful woman on TV, perhaps ever. Sigh.

Jill Hennessy ("Claire Kincaid") on Law&Order was far more pretty, cute and classy.

[Chipata]

"Jill Hennessy ("Claire Kincaid") on Law&Order was far more pretty, cute and classy."

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. You see cute and classy, whereas I see a midget, second-rate version of Jackie Kennedy in her prime.

[Nov3]

A leading British doctor wrote to the Daily Telegraph recently and stated categorically that masks, surgical or otherwise, are of no use whatsoever in protecting against air-borne viruses.

True but they keep you from unconsciously rubbing your nose or picking your teeth.

[aristeides]

It looks more and more as if SARS is not, in the strict sense, airborne. It is waterborne, but that means it can be transmitted by things like sputum and saliva that travel through the air. That may seem like quibbling, but it matters when we are considering what a mask can block. A mask that is not able to block a tiny virus can very well be able to block droplets of sputum and saliva.

[AM2000]

I know I try nip in the butt

*smirk*

[Cicero]

This is what I have been assuming. Around about next November we'll begin to see how serious this epidemic really is. I am not sanguine.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #9

She is 5'8". If she is a midget, you like a really tall woman.:) Is 6' acceptable to you ?:)

[Myrddin]

It's Spring and Fall right now in the northern and southern hemispheres. Winter comes to the southern hemisphere in 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see if there is a spike in infections in the southern hemisphere as people huddle indoors to avoid the bad weather.

[Judith Anne]

I admit I have a lot of concern about this fall and winter.

[Judith Anne]

MadIvan, would you please add me to your ping list for SARS posts? I'd appreciate it, because you post some very interesting articles...

[IYAAYAS]

I think a lot of us have had the SARS uh oh thought.

I'd like to make my hypotheses. Those without D32 at gene CCR5 will dia at a high rate. Those with one copy will live. Those with 2 copies cannot become infected.

[Judith Anne]

Remember the articles where we were commenting on the "Herald Wave" of spring cases, in advance of a fall epidemic? That was in regard to the 1918 epidemic (and others). Now here is a Hong Kong doctor, saying what we said...

I think we're ahead on the learning curve, on this...

[blam]

"A mask that is not able to block a tiny virus can very well be able to block droplets of sputum and saliva."

...and a reminder to keep your fingers out of your mouth.