Iraq War's Impact Spreads in Arab World

AP | 5/03/03 | PAUL GEITNER

[kattracks]

Iraq War's Impact Spreads in Arab World

By PAUL GEITNER .c The Associated Press

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - While President Bush has declared major fighting over in Iraq, the repercussions of the war for the rest of the Mideast are just starting to be felt, and it's an open question about whether for better or worse.

Radical regimes in Syria and Iran are suddenly toning down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and urging dialogue. Authoritarian leaders in Egypt and Jordan are talking - with varying degrees of enthusiasm - about democratization, while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters.

``Announcing the end of the military operations doesn't mean the end of the war,'' said Tareq Masarweh, a prominent Jordanian columnist who foresees ``popular resistance'' as long as the U.S. military remains in Iraq.

How the replacement of Saddam Hussein with a presumably pro-U.S. government in Baghdad will affect regional politics is one of the biggest uncertainties.

Awed by Washington's display of firepower in Iraq, no one looks likely to claim Saddam's mantle as leader of defiance to the West.

Even Syria, which likes to refer to itself as the ``heart of Arabism,'' welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell this weekend for tough talk about its own weapons program, allegations that Damascus aided Saddam's regime and links to terrorism.

``The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries,'' said Iman Hamdi, an expert on Mideast affairs at the American University in Cairo. ``We've got the message.''

Lebanon also has felt the heat because of the presence there of the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group, which is on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations.

Beirut regards Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance movement against Israel. But Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seems worried too.

``In the end, we are facing a new reality,'' he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.

Iranian hard-liners are signaling a new willingness to consider the possibility of restoring ties with Washington, cut since the 1979 Islamic revolution and hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy.

Iran's former president threw his weight last month behind the idea of a referendum on restoring ties - an idea believed to have broad popular support despite official opposition.

After Washington charged Iran was trying to promote an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq, Tehran was quick to deny it.

``Tehran does not want any friction with Washington over issues concerning Iraq,'' said Hasan Rowhani, secretary of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council.

Some have suggested Washington's professed determination to establish a democratic government in Iraq could have a domino effect in the region - depending on how it goes.

``If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating,'' said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. ``Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered.''

Some of those moderate allies have been taking democratic steps, even if small ones.

Bahrain had its first parliamentary elections in three decades last October. Qatari voters approved their first constitution this week and the first parliamentary elections are expected next year.

In Jordan, which has been without a parliament for two years, King Abdullah II promises elections will finally go ahead June 17.

``That'll get us back on the right track as quickly as possible,'' he said in a CNN interview. ``We're not looking over our shoulder. I mean we're looking to the future and moving.''

By contrast, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismissed the notion that ``imposing democracy by force'' in Iraq would result in wholesale reforms in the Islamic world or a lessening of fanaticism.

He said Wednesday that Arab countries were trying to bring democracy ``according to their own standards.''

Mubarak wields ultimate control in Egypt under emergency laws in place since the 1981 assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, by extremists opposed to the peace deal with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, is also feeling rattled.

Just before the war, the ruling family allowed human rights teams to visit and meet with reformers, a signal that it senses change is the best way to protect its rule.

Mass popular disillusionment with Arab governments after the Iraq war could also undermine the already divided 22-nation Arab League.

Rounds of summitry over the Iraq crisis degenerated into bickering and name-calling. Joint pronouncements against the war were undermined by some members who helped the U.S.-led invasion force, whether overtly or quietly.

The league's ``teeth are made of flesh,'' said Ayed al-Manna, a political analyst in Kuwait, which has sharply criticized the league.

Some analysts say the main impact of the war may be to force Arabs and their leaders to address their problems - and the rest of the world - more honestly.

``The only positive thing in the long run is it's going to make people here wake up to all the illusions they have with the West,'' Hamdi said. ``It puts things in perspective and maybe then we can find a way to better serve our own interests.''

05/03/03 10:34 EDT

[caltrop]

Great quotes. I'm particularly pleased to see the first Yamamoto quote which I hadn't seen in print before.

[green team 1999]

bump

[George W. Bush]

...while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters.

Bring them on. Please.

I think they'll think twice when they observe how few of the foreign fighters returned from Iraq. And where will they train them? And who is willing to fund them?

It just isn't that easy to sponsor terrorism these days.

[Filibuster_60]

"Whatever it takes" is nothing short of "we'll go to war."

Well apparently the Chinese haven't gotten the message. I guess they've always assumed that we'll try to get involved anyway, which is the principal motivation for their nuclear/ICBM buildup.

[George W. Bush]

Too bad the Arabs didn't remember what Yamamoto said after the attack on Pearl Harbor, "We have awoken the sleeping giant."

I've quoted this myself a number of times recently because it so aptly describes the change in American attitude. But upon further research, it seems there is no basis for it as history and can only be traced to the 1970 war film, Tora, Tora, Tora. At least, that's what the historians say. The historians say that Yamamoto actually was thrilled with the attack on Pearl and wrote a poem of celebration to the emperor and didn't reconsider the wisdom of attacking America until much later.

Too bad. It was such a good story. Probably belongs on snopes.com.

[pierrem15]

it's an open question about whether for better or worse

Only for those suffering from Journaline Spongiform Encephalopathy, which results in complete atrophy of the "right" portion of the brain.

[George W. Bush]

You didn't produce any credible sources for attributing this remark to Yamamoto.

The historians at the Park Service's memorial in Pearl Harbor specifically deny it has any historical basis. They say it became "instant history" after the Tora Tora Tora movie.

Too bad. Such a useful quote. But it belongs on snopes.com.

[Teetop]

Oh, I now see the New Hampshire Republican Alliance isn't credible now...oooooooooooooook!

[boris]

``The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries,''

No, but there's quite a few who need to meet Mr. Atom.

[George W. Bush]

Oh, I now see the New Hampshire Republican Alliance isn't credible now...oooooooooooooook!

I'm sure they're very nice people but they're not historians. To what source do they attribute their quote? Where are the Japanese officers and sailors who heard him say it? Where are the military histories from Japan which quote him saying this phrase?

Next.

[Teetop]

I suppose the Army AND Fort Leavenworth hasn't checked this quote out at all...

Game, Set and Match!

Next!

"I fear that all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant, and fill it with a terrible resolve."

-Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, December 7, 1941

http://www.leavenworth.army.mil/tpioabcs/quote.htm

[LS]

They can "build up" all they want. But they know that they better not attempt anything funny.

[Teetop]

I think all the Arabs are afraid of what we might do next. Personally, I like them thinking that. They know we are pi**ed off now.

Intresting how the DOJ report just out said that terrorism was at a level comparable to the 1960's.

[EaglesUpForever]

So, where's the "worse"?

Well, think of poor Daschle. He must be deeply saddened. And Galloway, his career is over. And those poor families of the homicide bombers. A dark time for some people...

[George W. Bush]

I suppose the Army AND Fort Leavenworth hasn't checked this quote out at all...

From their website: "The mission of the TPIO-ABCS is two fold. It serves as the Army's centralized manager and integrator of the Army Battle Command System to ensure horizontal and vertical information flow across the battlespace at each echelon. Additionally, it defines and/or integrates all battle command requirements and responsibilities from the theater Army to the individual soldier or platform." - TRADROC PROGRAM INTEGRATION OFFICE ARMY BATTLE COMMAND SYSTEM

This is not a military college, there are no military historians on staff. The "quote" is not attributed and I notice they are publishing many other "quotes" which are listed as anonymous sources. Of course, an anonymous quote is a true oxymoron, something that doesn't speak well for the scholarship on the quotes page. The quotes page is obviously an amateur effort, locally produced and consumed, not any sort of authoritative source by Army specialists or military historians.

Game, set, match? Try again. Why don't you find me a source from an instructor at the War College or at West Point. Or any professional historian.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Good news here!

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[LS]

Depending on what sources you use, and what year you start with, "terrorism" either rose or fell in Reagan's terms. But I think there is no question that his bombing of Libya sent an unmistakeable message to THAT country, and we really haven't heard from ol' crazy eyes Khadaffi. There is a definite strategery here in keeping all these lumatics off balance.

[snopercod]

This thread is almost like the olden days of FR. On a weekend, too!

[Cordova Belle]

it's an open question about whether for better or worse

The print journalist's equivalent of the TV reporter's "...only time will tell..."

[Cordova Belle]

Then he went into a saloon and killed two other guys. One of the town's people went to the deputy and said Dillon had to be arrested.

Dillon was the Marshall.