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To: JeanS
The writer for The Hill clearly doesn't understand how to read judicial tea leaves. I do.

The quick route for the special three-judge trial court (which was specified in the law) would have been a back-of-the-envelope ten page decision that boiled down to the following sentence: "While this court has serious doubts about the constitutionality of the Campaign Finance Reform Act, it nonetheless finds it constitutional."

If the three-judge court was going to do that, it would have happened two months ago. Therefore, the delay means that that court is going to find significant portions of the law unconstitutional, and is crafting a decision saying why, which it believes may stand up under Supreme Court review.

I feel very confident this will be the result. Then, the supporters of CFR will be put in the position of asking for a stay of that decision, from either the lower court or the Supreme Court, prior to full-dress consideration by the Supreme Court. I expect that to be denied.

So the roles will be reversed when this case gets into the Supreme Court. The supporters of the law will be on offense, and the opponents of the law will be on defense. Speaking as an opponent of the CFR law, that is always the better posture to have in the Supreme Court.

So, I expect major portions of this law to be knocked out for the 2004 election. And, by a narrow decision, I expect the Supreme Court to keep it that way, after full briefing and argument. And I will file a brief in the Supreme Court urging exactly that result.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, now up on UPI and FR, "All-American Arrogance"

Latest article, now up on UPI and FR, "The Iraqi Constitution"

3 posted on 04/30/2003 4:21:12 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob ("Saddam has left the building. Heck, the building has left the building.")
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To: Congressman Billybob
Always appreciate your analysis. Yes, a punt would have already happened. Whole lotta campaign lawyers going to be working overtime if the panel does what you suggest....
4 posted on 04/30/2003 4:58:29 PM PDT by eureka!
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To: Congressman Billybob
Thanks for your valued opinion ... gives me hope .......
5 posted on 04/30/2003 5:28:19 PM PDT by patricia
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To: Congressman Billybob
Thank you. Your intrepretation makes much more sense than the Hill editorial.
6 posted on 04/30/2003 5:30:40 PM PDT by Jean S
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