U.S. virus experts slam SARS panic

Reuters - alertnet.org ^ | 28 Apr 2003 | Maggie Fox

[CathyRyan]

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - People around the world are overreacting to SARS, creating a sense of panic that could overwhelm common-sense measures for containing the virus, top AIDS experts said on Monday.

Sensational media coverage of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has killed 326 people worldwide, has fanned the flames, said David Baltimore, who won the 1975 Nobel Prize in medicine for his work on how viruses cause disease.

"I think there has been overreaction," Baltimore, a leading AIDS researcher who is now president of the California Institute of Technology, said in a telephone interview.

"I have to agree with that," added Dr. David Ho, another top AIDS expert who heads the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center in New York.

"Obviously, the fear comes from the fact that this is a novel disease. Many aspects of this epidemic are still mysterious. Fear of SARS is outrunning SARS per se," Ho added.

Ho and Baltimore ought to know. AIDS kills virtually everyone it infects without treatment and 20 years into the AIDS epidemic there is no cure and no vaccine.

In contrast, 94 percent of SARS patients recover.

Baltimore said World Health Organization moves have been appropriate, such as the controversial recommendation against travel to Toronto, where 21 people have died from SARS.

But boycotts of Chinese-owned businesses and scenes of people walking the streets of Hong Kong wearing surgical masks show that the general public does not understand the real dangers, Baltimore said.

"As much as overreaction, there has been a lack of balance, of putting it into perspective, because it is a real problem, no question," Baltimore said.

"But people clearly have reacted to it with a level of fear that is incommensurate with the size of the problem and I think it is getting in the way of a reasonable response."

"IRRESPONSIBLE" COVER-UP

The government in China, where SARS appears to have originated late last year, has been criticized for covering up the initial outbreak -- but officials there have said they feared creating the sort of panic that has been seen.

"The Chinese government was totally irresponsible in covering it up," Baltimore said. "We can't get away from that. It is a demonstration of the value of openness."

WHO has praised Vietnam for its response -- which was to immediately call for international help in handling its own outbreak of SARS. WHO has declared Vietnam to be free of SARS.

"This thing literally never would have happened on anything like the scale it happened if the Chinese had been open about it from the beginning," Baltimore said.

SARS, caused by a relative of one of the common cold viruses, has infected an estimated 5,300 people in nearly 30 countries. It has a mortality rate of about 6 percent, which is higher than comparable respiratory diseases such as influenza.

But while SARS is new and frightening, its impact, so far, has been minor. In a mild year, influenza and its complications kill an estimated 250,000 people around the world. Malaria kills at least a million, mostly children.

Yet earlier this month two Chinese runners were asked to pull out of a marathon in the Netherlands because of SARS fears. Many cities have reported people are avoiding Chinatown districts -- including New York, where no SARS cases have been confirmed.

"What happened to Hong Kong, for example, with the hotel occupancy rate at 2 percent, is an overreaction," Ho said.

Much can be blamed on media coverage, Baltimore said. "What we are seeing is a playing up of the things that make people worry," he said.

But, he added, perhaps scary reports are just giving readers and viewers what they want.

"In some sense people like to be frightened," he said. "And so, to some extent what I am saying is a denial of what seems to be a basic human instinct -- to get a sort of frisson (shiver) of excitement out of danger. And the press is playing into that."

[CathyRyan]

This is for all "The Stand People" out there. For the rest....Funding time?

[Nov3]

These AIDS experts have done such a good job with AIDS shouldn't we follow their advice on this?< /sarcasm>

Screw these morons they are just jealous that someone is doing the right thing here and we have a chance to stamp this out.

[Nov3]

In contrast, 94 percent of SARS patients recover.

This statement shows just how uninformed these morons are.

[Russell Scott]

While AIDS ravages Africa and China, WHO screams SARS! SARS! I scream SCAM! SCAM!

[harpseal]

Some of the reasona for the difference between the reactions to SARS and AIDS is due to the fact that one does not need bodily fluid contact, there are now treatments for aids, aids has been arround long enough for people to get used to the risk. The airborne communicable nature of SARS makes it far more threatening to the average lay person. It actually seems to have a mortality rate of about 10% to 20%. Now given the devastation of say a smallpox with a 30% mortality rate some rather sound epidemialogical control measures should be in place and honest communication about the nature of the problem is essential.

No I am not a "The Stand" person I am just trying to be reasonable. As of right now it seems the infection control protocols in place in the USA seem to be working well.

[Nov3]

True, You get Aids from letting someone ram you in the @$$ or sharing needles. Also the mortality rate is much higher than 6% for true cases of SARS.

[Nov3]

As of right now it seems the infection control protocols in place in the USA seem to be working well.

We seem to have turned the corner on this no thanks to the AIDS experts. Had the strain that guy was spreading at the Metropole gotten loose it would have been ugly

[Coroner]

AIDS is primarily a behavioral disease. Statistically 75% of US AIDS patients are male homosexuals, another 15% are I.V. drug abusers. How many others that are infected through casual sex is probably a large portion of the remaining 10%. Meanwhile a disease like Leukemia that kills far more innocents is underfunded being parasitized by AIDS!!!

[Dog Gone]

I certainly don't see any overreaction here in the US. Has anyone seen anyone wearing a mask in public? Any mass quarantines?

The worst Americans can be accused of is deferring trips to Hong Kong. The numbers were never large anyway, and I hardly see how that translates into panic.

Even if people are going to Chinese restaurants less (and they seem as crowded around my city as they ever were), BFD. French restaurants aren't as crowded, either, and I don't think Americans are under any moral duty to patronize any business.

[Nov3]

Do you think we are handling this epidemic as well as the AIDS epidemic was and is being handled. I mean we can wait until 20,000,000 people have SARS and tell everyone to wear respirators and face masks (SARS condoms).

These morons know less about handling an epidemic than the common Joe.

[Dog Gone]

I think we're handling it as well as can be expected. President Bush has authorized forcible quarantine in advance in the event it becomes necessary. The CDC is putting out a lot of information, and we're keeping very close watch on any suspicious cases.

The alternative would be to shut down our ports, borders and airports, or quarantine all travelers for 10 days after their arrival. That would send the global markets into meltdown in addition to crippling trade we need. It would also be political suicide, because if it achieved its objective of keeping the virus out, it would be assailed as being ridiculous and unnecessary.

I think we're doing everything that is prudent, which is in total contrast to how we handled AIDS. Leftists put politics before medicine in that epidemic, and the world is still paying the price.

[GrandMoM]

AIDS kills virtually everyone it infects without treatment and 20 years into the AIDS epidemic* and how many Billion of TAX PAYERS Dollars *there is no cure and no vaccine.

[EternalHope]

As individuals, we are clearly not at short-term risk in the U.S., or anywhere else in the western world (not even Toronto). Our efforts at containment have worked. It is too soon to declare victory, but victory may be near (except in China).

So what are these two doctors complaining about? A careful reading of the article shows these doctors believe the medical system's response to SARS was appropriate, everywhere except China.

They are right about breathless stories about "possible" SARS cases in the U.S., almost all of which are not SARS in the first place. That kind of media hype is always going to be with us, so it is hard to get too concerned.

They also objected to boycotts of Chinese owned businesses, and people wearing masks outside. They are right about both, although neither one seems like something to get worked up about.

As far as boycotts go, I doubt Chinese businesses are being boycotted to any large degree, except perhaps in Toronto.

As far as people wearing masks go, SARS transmission outdoors would require someone to cough in your face, so the masks are not needed outdoors. But if people feel better walking down the street with a mask on, so what?

On balance, this story seems to be a statement of the obvious, combined with a headline designed to catch a reader's eye.

The real story right now is China. It is definitely not hype to say this is a HUGE story, although actually getting that story out will be difficult. China has no desire to let the foreign media see what is going on in China.

SARS is clearly out of the box in China. What happens if China cannot contain SARS?

[templar]

There will be about three million deaths in the United States this year. How many total SARS deaths will occur in the world as a whole?

[Steel Wolf]

I wouldn't be too critical of all this. If managed properly, the panic could work out in our favor, and help bring down a brutal regime. </realpolitik>

[txhurl]

And the pathogen they think they have is part cold virus, part mouse hepatitis, part avian infectious bronchitis. How did that happen???

This is true? Who thinks?

[riri]

These AIDS experts have done such a good job with AIDS shouldn't we follow their advice on this?

Hmmmm, 20 years later and we are still seeing 16,000 some odd new infections everyday. Despite the education available about how the disease is contracted and despite the fact that AIDS is not any easy disease to catch. Except for the small percentage of innocents, AIDS can easly be avoided. The same cannot be said about SARS.

[EternalHope]

There will be about three million deaths in the United States this year. How many total SARS deaths will occur in the world as a whole?

No one knows exactly, so how 'bout a range. Say, anywhere between 2,000 (China cracks down hard, puts it back in its box), and 100,000,000+ (catastrophe in China, trouble brewing for the rest of us).

Anyone who says they "know" any closer than that is either lieing, or has a direct line to God.