Billion SARS cases feared

Sunday Herald Sun, via News Interactive (Australia) ^ | 27 April 2003 | Mary Papadakis

[EternalHope]

This article merely states the obvious. It does not state this WILL happen, merely that it could.

If SARS gets out of the box and turns into a worldwide pandemic, LOTS of people could get it. It is the reason such enormous efforts are being made to contain SARS.

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

[_Jim]

*I* fear only one case - me!

[Arkinsaw]

*I* fear only one case - me!

LOL, finally some truth on the SARS threads.

[jlogajan]

Plus the fact that extremely deadly diseases tend to mutate to milder forms -- or to put it another way, those that kill their hosts too quickly don't get a chance to spread as far as those mutations that are milder. So there is a natural selector for milder disease mutations.

[_Jim]

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

LOL!

Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?

Anyway, what are you REALLY afraid of - you're GOING to die of something SOME day anyway!

[EternalHope]

*I* fear only one case - me!

What about your loved ones, and your friends?

[Palladin]

EEK! This is not a good day to come to FRee Republic! Is there any good news out there?

RE: SARS. The Malthusian population controllers must be dancing in the streets! This is beyond their wildest expectations for the 21st century.

[_Jim]

What about your loved ones, and your friends?

What about them - do you know them too?

[alnitak]

What I find interesting is that SARS isn't spreading very fast. Think about it - it's been around in Southern China for at least a couple of months now, one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and there are only ~4000 people who have caught it. If this was the "Andromeda Strain" it would have gone global by now.

This is not to say that it won't - first cases are being reported in the Phillippines and India, and we may see them popping up in Africa in the next couple of weeks - but the "wave of death" scenarios don't seem to be coming true.

[EternalHope]

And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.

Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?

If I was worried about it I would not have posted the article. I put on my flame proof underwear first.

[EternalHope]

What I find interesting is that SARS isn't spreading very fast.

It looks like we can stop SARS if we catch it early enough and try hard enough. Singapore, Hanoi, Toronto, and even Hong Kong are testimony to that probable fact.

China is another story. No one has any idea how many cases they have, most likely including their own government.

[_Jim]

I put on my flame proof underwear first.

Honestly, just WHO has had the gall to 'flame' you on a medical thread?

Oh, sorry - a 'fear-based' thread about a disease that has not really even established a foot-hold inside the United States of America?

[RightWhale]

MORE than one billion people worldwide could be infected by the deadly SARS virus within a year

If people continue to avoid washing their hands religiously there could be 60,000 cases in a year. One billion is hyperbolic.

[Nov3]

If it gets out of China/Tiawan/Hong Kong. That is not a small possibility. The good news is almost all of the cases outside this area are in world class hospitals. The bad news is that the staff of these hospitals are still catching SARS despite their best precautions. It has (outside of hospital staff) had no new cases in Toronto. Hong Kongs rate of new cases has fallen. If we can isolate China things look good. That of course is a huge if.

[alnitak]

Agreed. Deadly, but not very infectious. Viruses have a limited amount of RNA bases available to them. If they devote those bases to "infectiousness" they have less available for "lethality". Or vice versa, in the case of SARS.

At least that's my layman's understanding from Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague". Fascinating stuff, especially about how bacteria exchange genes in a sort of cross-species mating frenzy.

China is the problem, they have the most cases and if a "reservoir" of infection is established there it will eventually spread all around the world.

[Palladin]

I see a new world religion emerging: The Church of the Compulsive Handwashers

[EternalHope]

Oh, sorry - a 'fear-based' thread about a disease that has not really even established a foot-hold inside the United States of America?

We certainly agree about SARS not being established in the U.S. I have zero personal concern about catching SARS anywhere in the U.S. today. Nor do I think that situation is likely to change any time in the near future.

Whether it changes in the medium/long term depends on events that have not happened yet.

Hence my support for strong efforts to put SARS back in its box. And my disgust for the way China has handled SARS.

[_Jim]

I see a new world religion emerging: The Church of the Compulsive Handwashers

See: Japan.

[Age of Reason]

those that kill their hosts too quickly don't get a chance to spread as far as those mutations that are milder. So there is a natural selector for milder disease mutations.

Except in cases of high population density, where a deadly organsim can leap from host to host quickly.

This and our modern world which is shrunk via air travel, makes a potential disaster possible.

Your principle did not stop the black death of the 14th cent--and that in a world less populous than ours.

That, too, was a disease brought to the West from the East--and by ships (engaged in trade), the 14th century's equivalent of modern air travel.

[EternalHope]

If we can isolate China things look good. That of course is a huge if.

Agree completely with both your comments.