Posted on 04/25/2003 8:05:13 AM PDT by Happy2BMe
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Intelligence examines cargo flight from Baghdad to Belarus |
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has obtained safe haven in Belarus, several intelligence agencies believe.
Western intelligence sources said several intelligence agencies in the Middle East and Europe base this assessment on new information about a March 29 flight from Baghdad to Minsk. They said the flight of a chartered cargo plane could have transported Saddam, his sons and much of his family to Belarus.
"There's no proof that Saddam was on the plane but we have proof that a plane left on that day from Baghdad airport and arrived in Minsk," a senior intelligence source said. "If you can think of anybody else who could obtain permission to fly out of Baghdad in the middle of a war, then please tell me."
U.S. officials and Iraqi opposition sources said Saddam and his sons appear to have escaped two assassination attempts during the war. But they did not confirm the registration of a cargo flight from Baghdad to Minsk on March 29, Middle East Newsline reported.
The sources said the cargo aircraft took off from an unspecified Baghdad-area airport and entered Iranian air space on the flight toward Minsk. They said Iran did not attempt to interfere with the Iraqi flight.
About two weeks later, a registration of the cargo flight was found by the U.S. military in wake of the capture of the airport and the rest of the Baghdad area. Baghdad International Airport was captured on April 4.
U.S. officials said Saddam had been exploring the prospect of fleeing to Belarus over the last year. They said the Iraqi ruler was in close contact with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and that Minsk became a major military supplier to Baghdad.
Within hours after the departure of the cargo flight to Minsk on March 29, the Saddam regime was awash with rumors that the president had escaped. Intelligence sources said the rumors spread rapidly throughout the military command and among field officers.
"There was a significant decline in Iraqi combat strength starting from around March 31," an intelligence source said. "In interviews with coalition interrogators, Iraqi commanders have attributed the decline in combat to the feeling that Saddam had fled."
In Washington, Sen. Bob Graham, former chairman of the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, said on Thursday that a senior Saddam aide had been captured in Syria over the previous 24 hours. Graham did not identify the aide, but said he held one of the most sensitive positions in the regime.
The aide was believed to be Izzat Eddin Ibrahim Al Douri, vice chairman of the Revolutionary Council and the man who spent the longest amount of time with Saddam in power.
On Wednesday, British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon said Saddam was believed to be alive and hiding somewhere in Iraq. "In the end we don't know, but it is still our best judgment that he is [in Iraq]," Hoon said.
"As each day goes by, as we continue to search those places he may be hiding, we have to keep an open mind, but it is still my best judgment."
On Thursday, U.S. officials reported that Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz, regarded as the Western face of the Saddam regime, surrendered to U.S. military authorities. They said Aziz, who last month had vowed to die rather than be detained, held negotiations with the United States on the terms of his surrender.
Also, we don't know his height. Most Latins are short. He always looked larger than what ever. These so called leaders around the world are given extra inches to make them appear "tall." They are either stood on a platform (out of sight), or are surrounded by people who are shorter than they are and lie about their height in print.
However, I thought at the time (and still think) that the public posturing and offer of a free ticket out of Iraq was merely to push Saddam's "macho button" and trick him into staying, until it was too late for him to get out. (We used to refer to such a tactic as using "child psychology" to outfox kids, or using "reverse psychology" to dupe adults.)
A gamble? Certainly, but perhaps with the odds calculated as 70-80% in our favor, that he would take the bait, and go for the "embattled, heroic Arab" option.
I personally believe we took him down with the second strike. Admittedly, up until the 2nd strike, I thought we had nailed him with the 1st strike, but why would we have made the 2nd strike, unless we had credible intelligence that A), Saddam was still alive and B) that he was spotted in the Mansour district.
I believe the Bush administration has had its sights focused on Saddam for a long time. Think back to the pre-9/11 days. Remember how there were "tinfoil hat" rumors circulating that we might be getting ready to move on Iraq? (I believe we were, but redirected toward Afghanistan after 9/11.) There was a huge massing & passing of equipment on Labor Day weekend (immediately prior to 9/11)--well, leave it at that. I didn't post concerning this massive movement at the time (under an earlier screen name), although it was tempting to do so. Freepers were already becoming concerned about "loose lips."
The "decapitation strikes" were for PR purposes only -- hence their obvious bogusness. If you go to the trouble of acquiring WMD, you make sure that it's credible that they will be used in event of a decapitation strike. If that were not the case the WMD would be worse than useless. Rather than increasing your security, the WMD would constitute a little sign on your forehead saying "Shoot me with a plain old bullet or blow me up with a JDAM and I'll never be able to to kill millions of your people again." Obviously that isn't how it works -- not for us, or Britain or France or China or Israel or Russia or France or Saddam. And Saddam's noncholance with respect to any purported US "decapititation strikes" was in evidence on April 9, when he gave his validectory speech after agreeing surrender terms with the Russian envoy. He was at more risk from a lone wolf Iraqi sniper in the generally well-disposed crowd than a US bomb attack, and he knew it.
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