The odds against SARS

National Post ^ | Michael Friscolanti

[Mihalis]

The odds against SARS Mathmatically speaking, the odds are against infection

Michael Friscolanti National Post

Various signs.

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The World Health Organization may be advising travellers to avoid Toronto in the wake of the SARS outbreak, but the odds seem to suggest that visitors have a lot more to worry about than just the mysterious disease.

As of yesterday, 16 people in the greater Toronto area -- one for every 292,681 residents -- had died from the virus.

Mathematically speaking, a person is much more likely to die in a flood (one in 237,132), be murdered (one in 50,353), or accidentally strangle themselves in bed (one in 10,779).

"The safest way to travel is in a plane," said Emile Therien, the president of the Canada Safety Council. "But probably your chances of dying in a plane crash coming to Toronto are much greater than your chances of acquiring SARS."

For the record, the odds of dying in a plane crash this year are approximately one in 380,000.

Yesterday's warning from the WHO sparked outrage from Canadian health officials and politicians from all levels of government, who called the advisory an unnecessary overreaction. They said Toronto, which has unofficially been shunned for weeks, does not need an official black mark as it struggles to keep the city's economy afloat.

"I've never been angrier in my life," said Mel Lastman, Toronto's Mayor. "I'm shocked. The medical evidence before us does not support this advisory."

Indeed, the odds appear to be in Mr. Lastman's favour.

The Greater Toronto Area, which includes Toronto, Peel, Durham, York and Halton, has a total population of 4,682,897.

Approximately 260 people in the region -- one for every 18,011 residents -- are being treated for probable or suspected SARS symptoms.

According to the odds, there are far worse fates than coming down with SARS symptoms.

- Canadians have an estimated one-in-100 chance of acquiring skin cancer, with a one-in-400 chance of dying from the disease.

- One in every 1,272 Canadians was sexually assaulted in 2001.

- The likelihood of dying from a fall from a ladder is one in 9,485, which is only slightly lower than the chances of falling out of a building.

Actually dying of SARS in Toronto is even more of a rarity. While the 16 deaths -- one for every 292,681 residents -- have brought obvious pain to the victims' friends and relatives, the chances of dying from the disease are almost as low as being struck by lightning (approximately one in 500,000).

- According to last year's traffic records, a person is 205 times more likely to die in a car crash -- one in 22,843 -- than succumb to SARS.

- Approximately 90 people were murdered in the GTA last year, which means visitors have a much higher chance of suffering stab wounds than SARS fevers.

- One in every 72,265 people in Ontario last year died of the flu -- far more than the amount who have fallen victim to SARS.

- The odds of dying from a dog bite -- one in 142,279 -- are higher than dying from SARS.

"You're much more at risk of getting into a car accident or dying of the flu," said Dr. Martin Antony, an associate professor of psychiatry at McMaster University. "We want to keep things in perspective. The things we see in the news are not always the things that are most dangerous to us."

[ContemptofCourt]

Please don't burst the bubble of the doom-and-gloomers, who are still bitter that the world did not end with Y2K.....

[trebb]

Nice statistics, but they aren't relevant. They use the populace at large and how many die, rather than the risk of actually catching the disease and subsequent chances of death. They sound really good unless you happen to be one of those who decided to listen and end up getting SARS when you could have stayed away and been OK. It's kind of like a gay man telling a prospect that his AIDS isn't that virulent and unless the prospect has internal lesions, there is little chance of becoming infected...

[billorites]

"One in every 1,272 Canadians was sexually assaulted in 2001. "

Hard to imagine the risk is evenly spread among Canadians.

[thesharkboy]

The reason for the concern about SARS is not the present risk of getting or dying from it, but the future risk of the disease getting out of hand. If a significant portion of the population gets it, hostpitals will be overwhelmed, and many more people will die.

[Pylot]

Last time I checked you could not

- acquire skin cancer from a coughing person next to you.

- fall from a ladder as a result of a person coughing next to you

- die in a car crash from a person coughing next to you

But you could be "murdered" by a person with SARS coughing next to you just as certainly as if you were stabbed.

I'd rather be bitten by a dog any day than to contract SARS.

And to the statement that dying from this is very rare, well it sure was final to the person who died from it!

Its always the money grubbing politicians who will sacrifice a few humans in the name of the local economy. After all, the mayor has the best protection Canadian tax dollars can purchase and I don't see him making the rounds at the local hospital!

[FreepForever]

Hong Kong is doing all of the below to keep the cases to 1,400 in 5 weeks and yet, there are still 30 new cases per day:

70% of the population wear a face mask. Retail staff are wearing disposable caps and gloves too.

Lifts buttons are covered with a plastic sheet which is changed every 2 to 3 hours. All public places are fumigated daily. some twice.

An entire housing complex which is infected is cordoned off with all residents sent into quarantine.

Hospital workers are not allowed to go home after their work shift to prevent transmitting to their family. They have to stay in make-shift quarters.

All non-emergency operations are cancelled (including cancer) because hospital operation rooms are now turned into ICU wards for SARS patients. Private hospital beds are "drafted" to cater for "general" patients.

Strictly no family visiting of all patients (including non-SARS patients) in hospitals. No last rite allowed. Patient cannot see their family before they die. They allow them to do it with web cam through internet.

No make-up allowed for patients died of SARS. Coffin must be sealed. Can't even say last goodbye in funeral.

All schools suspended (3 weeks). Some even indefinitely in infected areas. All students must pass temperature check and step on disinfectant soaked carpet before entering school. Hand wash every hour. Strict all day face mask rule. Heavy dose Vitamin C for every student. No school lunch in canteen. Teacher supervised lunch in classroom only (strictly no talking). No physical contact with other students.

Temperature check at airport in and out. One passenger found sick, the entire plane's passenger are quarantined.

All shops, banks, offices, restaurants, schools will be closed immediately for disinfection if one case is found among the staff. The entire team of staff will be sent into quarantine and the place disinfected.

Cinemas and restaurants are closing down to cut loss. 70% of the airplanes are grounded, hotel are empty (one 5-star recorded 0.3% occupancy). It is now causing an "economic meltdown" in a once prosperous city.

Now, ask yourself, are you perfectly happy with wearing a mask for the rest of your life?

[paulk]

The author should have studdied statistics a bit more before writing this. There is a possibility that SARS will spread exponentialy making his numbers quite silly.

The estimates in Singapore are a 8-9% death rate.

[2oakes]

If you are tried to the tracks, a distant train does look very small for a while...

With a 5-7% death rate, there will be a 5,000-7,000 death rate per 100,000 infected.

Just hope quarantine is not seen as a restriction of liberty - we have ONE chance to stop this.

[theFIRMbss]

>If a significant portion of the population gets it, hostpitals will be overwhelmed, and many more people will die.

One thing I've wondered
is what about people who
never see doctors?

I know a few, young
and old, who would rather die,
or stay sick, than see

a doctor. If such
people get sick, then nothing
the medical pros

work out to "manage"
the spread of SARS will matter.
It seems to me that

if a culture has
some critical percentage
of people who won't

ever see doctors,
then everything else becomes
close to meaningless.

(This would make a great --
though depressing -- feature to
experiment with

in simulations
like Sim-City or some such
computer model...)

[FreepForever]

The writer has misused the death rate as a very misleading argument to dismiss the danger of SARS. The danger of SARS is not death, but the high risk of getting it unknowingly.

Every lift button, escalator hand rail, door knob and handle, public phone, keyboard, teller machine and thousands of other very innocent daily items can get you infected.

Come one, tell me, aren’t these daily items MUCH MUCH more common than skin cancer, people on a ladder, car crash, rapist and dog bites?

[Mihalis]

You're right. The scary thing about SARS is that there's no practical way to protect yourself. Unlike AIDS, for example, which is a very preventable disease.

[RobRoy]

When I started grabbing the doorhandle of the mens room with a paper towel as I left (several years ago), I stopped getting sick.

Just a thought.

[jiggyboy]

"The safest way to travel is in a plane," said Emile Therien, the president of the Canada Safety Council. "But probably your chances of dying in a plane crash coming to Toronto are much greater than your chances of acquiring SARS."

For the record, the odds of dying in a plane crash this year are approximately one in 380,000.

Astonishingly poor example for refuting the danger of contracting SARS, I dare say.

[FreepForever]

SARS is just 5 months old. When we are talking about a virus that contagious, nothing is save enough.

[Godebert]

I do that too. Kinda pointless to wash your hands and then grab a door handle that has been handled by hundreds of others that didn't wash their hands.

[RobRoy]

I started doing that when I found out the cold and flu were spread by touch as opposed to inhaled air. I haven't had a flu shot - or the flu - in over six years.