Korea: Russian Official Predicts 'Catastrophic' Events Within Days

smh.com.au ^ | April 24 2003 | AFP

[Destro]

Russian official predicts 'catastrophic' events

April 24 2003

A top Russian Foreign Ministry official was quoted as saying yesterday in Tokyo that a "catastrophic" development of events in the US-North Korean nuclear standoff was imminent and could occur within the next day.

"It is probable that, as early as tomorrow, there will be a catastrophic development of events," Itar-Tass quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov as saying.

He added that the standoff had "reached an extreme stage" but did not give a more detailed explanation about his warning.

Losyukov holds the Asian affairs brief in the ministry.

His comments came as US Asia envoy James Kelly had a first round of low-key nuclear talks in Beijing with "axis of evil" foe North Korea.

Losyukov said that Russia would welcome progress in Kelly's negotiations with Li Gun, the North Korean Foreign Ministry's deputy director for US affairs and a former senior member of his country's delegation to the United Nations.

"If the danger is defused, we would only welcome this," Losyukov said.

China was represented by Fu Ying, director of the Foreign Ministry's department of Asian affairs, but Russia - which had sought to play a role in mediating the Washington-Pyongyang standoff - was excluded.

Losyukov said Russia did not feel snubbed by the decision.

Russia "does not feel left out or hurt," said Losyukov, whose comments came after a meeting with top Japanese Foreign Ministry officials.

Moscow had pushed for direct talks between North Korea and the United States and argued against Washington's demands for a multilateral format for such negotiations.

But Beijing managed to broker a compromise deal that would see the two sides hold talks with China as an active third party.

Those may be later joined by South Korea and Japan -- but Russia's own role in the negotiations seems uncertain.

President Vladimir Putin has enjoyed privileged relations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. He has met the reclusive Stalinist three times over the past two years and Moscow diplomats have insisted that they were still hard at work in trying to resolve the nuclear standoff.

Moscow "is doing all it can in the diplomatic arena," Losyukov was quoted as saying. He gave no further details.

AFP

[LibWhacker]

"It is probable that, as early as tomorrow, there will be a catastrophic development of events," Itar-Tass quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov as saying.

Well, we know who bought gold yesterday, don't we?

[PhiKapMom]

If San Francisco went up in a mushroom cloud, how would we know whether it was the North Koreans or the Wrath of God?

Now that was priceless! Way to go!

[My2Cents]

Let's hope they take out Los Angeles/Hollywood.

[smith288]

Dr evil and his Asian counterpart

[Quix]

Either/or?

It could be BOTH.

My very tentative conclusions following impressions gleaned from recent contact with a . . . gifted and discerning fellow involved with the upper levels of government . . .

is . . .

that God is busy using us to counter satan's efforts to destroy Israel and The Church . . . for the time being . . .

PERHAPS enough prayer and fasting has occured to spare us WWIII wholesale for 1-3 years or so.

HOPEFULLY.

---

IF

---

SO,

And the Russian is right . . .

perhaps it will be a trigger to allow us to smack evil down more forcefully in yet another corner of the world.

Certainly in terms of our whole society, we have plenty to be smacked down about ourselves. But if God is considering as He was when discussing things with Abraham about finding 10 righteous in the city--perhaps we have a chance for a while to work more for The Kingdom while the sun shines . . . awaiting THE SON REALLY SHINING.

[Quix]

I agree with you.

[Quix]

If he feels super desperate as well he might--

given his internal psychology

given starvation right and left

given humiliation in a sense with Iraq getting all the press and ignoring him more than he can stand

given possible feelings of being vulnerable to being sold out in talks compared to what he'd prefer . . .

He could decide to try and do an end run around China, the USA and the world.

Sort of an

'up your's world'

kind of stunt.

[Quix]

They have some very cozy rooms prepared in a very warm place.

However, it's not clear when their ticket is scheduled for.

[Quix]

MUCH, MUCH AGREE.

NK is a tool of the puppet masters.

And if her unroyal lowness,
her hideous heinous--
Bwitch Shriller is not a

low ranking puppeteer,

she certainly is sucking up to the puppet masters every intake of breath she inhales.

And she might well know some contingency plans about using NK to destabalize the world and/or Bush etc.

[DoctorMichael]

This WAS the Soviet's client state..............NOT China's. They utilized the genocidal, bigotted, hegemonistic North Korean attack dogs during the cold war.

Now they say, "Kim who?".

The Russkiis oughta stay off the wodka.

[Quix]

True.

[Quix]

For sure.

[Beck_isright]

"The Russians were spot on in Iraq and advised Saadam to quit because all scenarios pointed to an American win. I read AND remember."---Destro

You sir, obviously did not read every posting....and are full of Soviet Bovine Scattology (SUPER BS)

Did Russians use blog to aid Iraqis?

'Russian spies told Saddam how Bush would justify war'

Russian Complicity: The unchanging nature of Moscow

Documents link Russia to Saddam

Russia now admits training Iraqi spies, But it says intent was to fight crime, terror

Iraqi defeat jolts Russian military

Baghdad Shocker Bares Russia-Saddam Spy Tie

Iraq is Russia's Test Bed and Bed Fellow

Russia Gave Iraq Assassin List

Russian organization was training Iraqi spies, documents show (more info from Iraqi documents)

Russia's weapons stockpile: Time to secure it

The Elite's Feeling the Heat [Russian military perspective on Iraq]

Now this post is a classic, despite your Soviet sympathizer denials....

As the war in Iraq winds to its inevitable end, uneasy reflections are taking over Russia's political and military elite. No one in Moscow ever seriously believed that Saddam Hussein might indeed "defeat" the allied forces. But the speed and decisiveness of the offensive has bewildered many.

Russian generals were expecting another prolonged so-called non-contact war, like the one against Yugoslavia in 1999, in Afghanistan in 2001 or the first gulf war in 1991, when a four-day ground offensive was preceded by a 39-day air bombardment. It was believed that the Americans were afraid of close hand-to-hand encounters, they would not tolerate the inevitable casualties, and that in the final analysis they were cowards who relied on technical superiority.

In the first week of the war, allied forces rapidly fanned out of Kuwait, occupied most of southern Iraq and moved deep into the central part of the country without prolonged preliminary air bombardment. This successful blitz caused shock in Moscow. Then came news of the first U.S. casualties and prisoners, of severe sandstorms hampering movement, of increased Iraqi attacks and an overall pause in the offensive.

As the allies' push into Iraq seemed to falter, many hearts in Moscow and in Europe rejoiced. In a poll taken in late March, 52 percent of Russians were of the opinion that the U.S.-led military action in Iraq was unsuccessful; 58 percent believed it would be a long war; 35 percent were convinced the United States would win in the end, while 33 percent assumed Iraq would prevail.

Last week it was disclosed that two retired three-star generals -- Vladislav Achalov (a former paratrooper and specialist in urban warfare) and Igor Maltsev (a specialist in air defense) -- visited Baghdad recently and were awarded medals by Hussein. The awards were handed out by Iraqi Defense Minister Sultan Khashim Akhmed.

It was reported that the retired generals helped Hussein prepare a war plan to defeat the Americans.

Achalov confirmed he was in Baghdad just before the war and received medals from Hussein for services rendered. He also told journalists that the defense of Baghdad was well organized, U.S. tanks would be burned if they enter the city and U.S. infantry would be slaughtered. According to Achalov, the only way the allies could ever take Baghdad and other Iraqi cities was to raze them to the ground by carpet bombing.

Last week, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov echoed Achalov's opinion: "If the Americans continue to fight accurately, avoiding high casualties, the outcome is uncertain. If the Americans begin carpet bombing, Iraq will be defeated." Ivanov also announced that the Defense Ministry was attentively studying the war in order to learn how to build a stronger Russian army.

It seems that up to now the result of the study has been negative. It would appear that Russian generals and Ivanov assume it's the Americans that should be learning from them how to flatten cities -- the way our military destroyed the Chechen capital, Grozny.

Many Russian generals truly believe that a bombing campaign that leaves some buildings still standing is ineffective. Precision-guided munitions are widely considered to be costly pranks -- not real weapons. In Chechnya, we tried to use some of these gadgets, but they did not work, as most Russian officers and men have not been trained in how to use the limited number of modern weapons our military inherited from the Soviet armed forces.

The worst possible outcome of the war in Iraq for the Russian military is a swift allied victory with relatively low casualties. Already many in Russia are beginning to ask why our forces are so ineffective compared to the Brits and Americans; and why the two battles to take Grozny in 1995 and 2000 each took more than a month to complete, with more that 5,000 Russian soldiers killed and tens of thousands wounded in both engagements, given that Grozny is one tenth the size of Baghdad.

The Russian media is generally avoiding the hard questions and serving up anti-American propaganda instead. It is alleged that the U.S. government is "concealing casualties" (like its Russian counterpart), and that hundreds if not thousands of U.S. soldiers have already been killed. Maybe this deceit will become the main semi-official excuse for disregarding the allied victory.

Or perhaps our generals who do not want to build a modern post-Soviet military will come up with some other propaganda ploy.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

------------------------------

I could just keep digging up all of the old FR posts to show Russian complicity and make a fool of you. But why bother. They thought they could drag the US into a Vietnam/Afghan style quagmire. Guess what...I left the military in 93, and they were already planning even more advanced stuff than they pulled of in this war and the Russians laughed at us then.

Put some ice on it.

[Paul Ross]

But it was mostly Chinese we wound up fighting, when their army stormed across the Yalu River as we were on the verge of polishing off the North Korean regime.

[Destro]

I never said the Russian did not provide paid for intel and advisors. The Russian advice was to fight hard in cities and if you can't do that the war is lost for Iraqis Baathists. You seem to think advisors only give cheerful news-it aint so. In addition Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst--who WORKS FOR GEORGE SOROS.

[Paul Ross]

Check it out from today's news (indicating the Russky knew something):

WASHINGTON -Reuters (April 24) - Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday that talks on North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program ended a day earlier than expected in Beijing and the United States would not be intimidated by ''bellicose statements'' from Pyongyang.

Powell also said Washington had not taken any options off the table -- a diplomatic phrase meaning that military action had not been ruled out -- and that it was looking for ways to ''eliminate'' the threat posed by any North Korean nuclear weapons program.

''The North Koreans should not leave the meetings in Beijing, now that they have come to a conclusion ... with the slightest impression that the United States and its partners will be intimidated by bellicose statements or by threats,'' Powell said in a speech.

Powell said there might be additional bilateral talks between the United States and China or between China and North Korea, but he suggested the three-way meetings that were the centerpiece of the Beijing talks had come to an end.

The United States hoped the talks might be a first step toward North Korea ending a nuclear weapons program that U.S. officials said it admitted to in October. North Korea wants security guarantees from Washington, something Powell earlier this week said would not be on the table in Beijing.

''Strong views were presented. The North Koreans presented their point of view strongly, the Chinese did as well, as did the United States.'' he said. ''The sides will return to their capitals and assess what they heard, analyze proposals that were put down by the parties and determine where we will go next,'' he said.

''As you know, we have not taken any options off the table but the president remains convinced ... that a peaceful solution can be found,'' he added.

''The one thing that is absolutely clear as a result of this meeting ... is that there is unity within the community that we must not allow the (Korean) peninsula to become nuclear,'' Powell said. ''North Korea must come to understand this. North Korea must also come to understand that we will not be threatened, we will not respond to threats.''

''We look for a way forward that will eliminate the threat and put North Korea on a path to a better future, a better future that will provide a better life for (its) people,'' he added in remarks before the U.S. Asia-Pacific Council.

Powell said the United States would continue to insist that talks take place in a multilateral setting and that the Korean peninsula be free of nuclear weapons.

He gave no date for any future talks, saying only that South Korea and Japan stood ready to take part in any additional talks ''when and if'' they take place.

[RightWhale]

This *expletive deleted* situation sounds dangerous. Not to discount Russian opinions, after all, they have been invaded and nearly overrun several times, but this thing could explode very quickly.

[Destro]

I think the reason the Russkie reacted as he did was because he found out that the North Koreans were going to tell the USA that they did indeed have nukes and were building more. As the news reports pf today say just happened. In hearing that he may be thinking the USA will go -- ahem- ballistic.

[RightWhale]

he may be thinking the USA will go -- ahem- ballistic.

That would be a bad day for all.