Posted on 04/22/2003 9:34:12 PM PDT by Lessismore
...
Sewerage
7. Each block has eight vertical soil stacks each collecting effluent from the same unit of all floors. The soil stack is connected with the water closets, the basins, the bathtubs and the bathroom floor drains. Each of these sanitary fixtures is fitted with a U-shaped water trap (U-trap) to prevent foul smell and insects in the soil stack from entering the toilets. For details, please see Annex. For this preventive mechanism to function properly, the water traps must be sufficiently filled with water.
8. Interviews with Amoy Gardens residents revealed frequent complaints about foul smell in toilets, which suggest that the U-trap arrangement might not be functioning properly in some units. As the water closets, the basins and the bathtubs were frequently used, their U-traps should be charged with water and should have been functioning properly. However, as most households had the habit of cleaning the bathroom floor by mopping instead of flushing it with water, the U-traps connected to most floor drains were likely to be dry and would not have been functioning properly. Indeed, in tests carried out in one of the units in Block E, reflux of air from the soil stack into the bathroom through the floor drain was demonstrated when the exhaust fan in the bathroom was switched on. It is postulated that the reflux could have contained droplets of contaminated sewage present in the soil stack, be dispersed into the bathroom, and be extracted by the bathroom exhaust fan into the light well between adjacent units. The contaminated droplets could then enter other units through open windows.
...
Pest Infestation
10. There were signs of cockroach infestation at Amoy Gardens, in particular around the carpark, food premises and drain openings. Rodent activities were also detected around refuse collection chambers, the carpark and food premises.
Those who continue to report a 5% death rate are either lying, or are statistically challenged.
The illness takes 3 to 4 weeks to kill after having been diagnosed. So the CORRECT way to calculate it, is take the DEATHS TODAY, divided by the TOTAL CASES 3 weeks ago!
I did this for two countries, using W.H.O. data...
It looks like the death rate is somewhat similar to smallpox... (somewhere between 19 and 44 percent) !!!!!
A still better calculation would use statistics based on time of disease onset, rather than time of report. I believe WHO has some statistics tabulated on this basis.
I should have known!
Can these be crunched with your other data to yield a FL_engineer-style estimate? Use of onset dates rather than report dates should lower the estimated death rate somewhat, since onsets preceed reports.
This still leaves the 3-to-4-week parameter unsourced (though it seems plausible).
BTW, as I noted elsewhere, the New York Times (16 April) report that all the doctors and nurses treating an early case got SARS suggests that (for that strain, by that mode of exposure) the natural immunity rate is low.
I have no steady source for stats on onsets.
China is now admitting to an additional 306 SARS cases and 14 deaths since yesterday's numbers
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.