[Polycarp]

it will be because "conservative Christians" have failed to supply enough votes to be worth the price tag

I disagree, at least to a degree. It will depend just as much upon who wins the struggle for the soul of the GOP, social conservatives or "moderate" RINOs.

RINOs will purge social conservatives regardless, if they are able, because in the end they share the same motivations and goals as Dems.

[IronJack]

It will depend ... upon who wins the struggle for the soul of the GOP, social conservatives or "moderate" RINOs.

Exactly the struggle the GOP is facing. And social conservatives are losing. Let's face it, George Bush is not our friend. This, the Assault Weapons Ban, and Campaign Finance Reform all point to a "conservatism" that's gone mushy.