Posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus
This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:
* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.
But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *
The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:
But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.
The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.
If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.
That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.
How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.
What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
http://www.cdha.nshealth.ca/physicianupdate/sars/sarsUpdateApril032003.html
1. If an outpatient who has regular scheduled visits with the hospital has traveled within the last 10 days to an area of the world where there is SARS (eg. Hong Kong) and has a scheduled appointment with a department on their return what precautions should we take? If the outpatient does not have symptoms of SARS (fever more than 38 degrees Celsius and one or more of cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing) then no special precautions are required. You simply follow usual, good infection control practices as are used for all patients. If the patient has symptoms that are suspicious for SARS, then the patient should be instructed to wear a surgical mask and arrangements made to send him/her to the emergency room for assessment. While the patient is in your area, he/she should be placed in a single room with no other patients and the door kept closed. You should wear a N95 mask, gown, and gloves if you have direct contact with the patient. The emergency room must be contacted to tell them that the patient is coming to be evaluated for SARS and arrangements should be made to escort the patient to Emergency. Be sure to tell Emergency the patient’s name! Call infection control for further instructions.
Sorry, but N95 mask means airborne contagion.
Of course not. But the point is that it is way to early to proclaim SARS to be anything even remotely like AIDS, for example. We simply don't know enough about it yet.
Tuberculosis kills 3 million people annualy, malaria another 2 plus million. You don't see many headlines screaming about those diseases do you?
This is the crisis du jour, a titillating little fright that the mediots thrive on. Don't buy into their efforts to panic you.... at least not until there is much more substantial evidence....
In like manner, we are taking extraordinary measures to keep SARS from exploding in the USA, despite the number of people killed by the flu each year.
I realize that a lot more has happened in the last few weeks, but I still think his basic premise is sound...
It's too early to panic.... It's tempting, but I choose to resist until more evidence comes forth....
JMHO personally. Think I will live out in the woods pretty soon.
It's new and early trends are indeed frightening. Comparisons to known risks doesn't diminish the potential danger of this risk. Only time will tell.
Oh, and the masks did NOTHING in 1918 (gotta put that out there so people can use the money on better things).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.