Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/18/2003 | Douglas Oliver

[ex-Texan]

Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:

* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.

Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.

But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *

In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.

The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.

But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.

If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.

That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.

How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?

[riri]

BTW, I didn't stock up on spam and water, I was pretty sure Clinton would leave office (though sometimes I did wonder) and I only marginally thought the national guard would be called in by Reno to restore law and order after some fabricated threat.

Having said all this how is your brother? Is he getting better? It has been a few days now.

[thinking]

When you consider how easy the medical staff are becoming infected, one should take SARS very seriously.

A man from the area south of Rochester, NY, attended a baseball game in Toronto last week, now has SARS.

[thinking]

I am not discrediting your info...but, I would like to add the latex gloves can carry the virus on the gloves, therefore one needs a series of gloves to ensure that the virus is not transferred, by the gloves to different objects/people....in other words you need to change gloves for each task...not using the same glove for numerous activity...

As an example: I recently wanted to purchased an ice cream cone from a young lady, who put on latex gloves and then proceeded to wipe her running nose on the back of the gloves, I called her attention to what she had done, but it didn't register with her..needles to say I didn't buy the ice cream that place.

...

[theFIRMbss]

199>What a fluster cluck.(shaking my head in disbelief)
201>Having said all this how is your brother? Is he getting better?

(201) My sister-in-law
and brother are better. Both
have gone back to work.

They took the weekend,
stayed in, and got lots of rest.
Thanks for asking. (They

are visiting us
in just about four weeks, so
we want them healthy

and germ free when they
make the flight to Chicago.)
(199) Have people noticed

that the "official"
US count has been "revised?"
When April began,

WHO listed almost
150 hits.
Now, WHO only has

39 SARS hits.
They explain on their report:

"Since 20 April 2003 the United States of America are reporting to WHO probable cases of SARS, therefore the number of new cases since last WHO update is not applicable."

It always makes me
nervous when officials change
definitions and

report practices.
(I can just toss the WHO charts
I had been saving

for comparison
with new figures. By changing
which numbers they use,

any projections
people try to make must start
April 20th.)