Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/18/2003 | Douglas Oliver

[ex-Texan]

Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus

This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:

* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.

Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.

But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *

In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.

The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.

But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.

If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.

That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.

How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?

[Gritty]

There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

Kindly help us out with some links showing specific evidence, please. We would all appreciate it.

[Born to Conserve]

The death rates mentioned are for those who show the syndrome, not for those who get the virus. The rate at which people who have the virus are showing the syndrome has not been reported, that I have seen.

[aristeides]

FDA seeks to keep SARS out of blood supply .

[aristeides]

SARS quarantine reaches Montreal .

[Judith Anne]

Some good posts on this thread, don't you think? Looks to me like most people "get it." I think I'll take the one suggestion and read up on the 1918 epidemic... I do have a nightmare...and that's IF the epidemic gets a genuine foothold in the US, and some CDC jackass gets a regulation passed that nurses have to work and can't refuse...

[Judith Anne]

The death rates mentioned are for those who show the syndrome, not for those who get the virus. The rate at which people who have the virus are showing the syndrome has not been reported, that I have seen.

I think that's one of the unknowns, at this point. Even if there's a test in the immediate offing, it's not available on a wide basis nor is it likely to be, anytime soon.

[aristeides]

SARS quarantine reaches Montreal

MONTREAL - About 300 people in Montreal have been asked to stay at home because of concern they may have been exposed to SARS by a man from Ontario.

A Toronto man who attended a financial training conference in Quebec last weekend has since checked himself into hospital with SARS–like symptoms.

Roughly 450 were at the meeting–more than 300 from Montreal. Another 90 were from the United States.

The head of the infectious diseases unit of Montreal's public health department, Dr. John Carsley, said officials have tracked down everyone involved and recommended they go into quarantine.

"We expect that most people were exposed very, very little," Carsley told a news conference on Thursday.

"But given that everybody was in the same room for three and a half or four hours, and another two hours in the evening, we felt that we couldn't judge individual exposures, and that we must consider everybody."

The precautionary, 10–day quarantine will end this Tuesday.

Details about the conference, including the name of the financial company and the hotel, have not been released.

Carsley said there's no danger to the general public, and that so far none of the people at the meeting has developed SARS–like symptoms.

SARS quarantine reaches Montreal

[Judith Anne]

Some good links, boy oh boy, they raise a lot of questions in my mind...

[rightwingreligiousfanatic]

Click Here for Michael Fumento's take on this. He's a doctor who specializes in infectious diseases. I heard him interviewed on Dennis Prager's radio show last week and he characterized SARS as "MASS HYSTERIA".

He cited the statistics for influenza (ordinary flu) deaths in the USA at around 35,000 a year. 35,000! From the flu!

SARS has a long way to go before becoming worth worrying about in his opinion.

It is just that the label "mysterious" in the current climate of world events (terrorism) inflates the perceived danger to a ridiculous level.....

[TBall]

From what I can tell _Jim doesn't let logic get in the way. Waco was by the book, TWA 800 was caused by a center fuel tank explosion, and Vince Foster simply killed himself in the park.

[freeper12]

>>>>There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

>>Kindly help us out with some links showing specific evidence, please. We would all appreciate it.

Don't you just love it when people throw out statements like that with absolutely nothing to back it up?

[CathyRyan]

I guess if things turn bad, I would volunteer to help. I have no family that I would bring it home to. I do not know if they would want me but maybe I could help some way.

[CobaltBlue]

- Surgical masks are no good unless they are N-95, which is what is used for treating tuberculosis patients.

- Latex gloves for handling contaminated clothing and personal effects if a member of your household gets sick.

- Ten days food and water for every member of the household, including pets, in case you are quarantined.

- A stash of cash in case you are quarantined so you can order things to be delivered to the door, although if I were the delivery company I'd rather be paid via debit or credit card, and leave the delivery at the door, so just keep enough liquidity in your accounts to be able to do this.

- Bleach water will kill the virus, is my understanding, and so will alcohol hand cleaner.

- I believe you live out in the country, so you probably don't have to worry about roaches spreading it from your neighbors, but if I lived in an apartment complex or a townhouse complex or a trailer park I'd get the place sprayed for roaches.

>>What are the dirtiest public places?Here they are in order of dirtiness. Playgrounds have most contaminated surfaces. Here are the other top eight:
*Public telephones
*Public rest-room surfaces
*Counter pens
*Chair armrests
*Elevator buttons
*Escalator handrails
*Shopping cart handrails
*Grocery store refrigerator handles<<
http://experts.longisland.com/children/archive_article.php?ExpArtID=478

- Wash your hands.

- Don't sit on public toilet seats.

[Judith Anne]

Some excellent suggestions in your post, and interesting information.

Spread through the air, however...that's where isolation comes in...

[CobaltBlue]

Michael Fumento's "take" on it is almost a month old.

A lot of water under the bridge since he wrote that.

[Nebullis]

He cited the statistics for influenza (ordinary flu) deaths in the USA at around 35,000 a year.

This is true. And there are more than 40,000 deaths of traffic accidents in the US each year. Neither statistic carries any implication for SARS.

[aristeides]

Spread through the air, however...that's where isolation comes in...

I don't think airborne transmission of SARS has been established yet. If it happens at all, it appears to be rare.

[CobaltBlue]

You may be right that SARS is coming under control, but I think it's too soon to tell.

[Judith Anne]

Cathy, I'm sure that in a worst-case scenario, anyone willing to help would be overwhelmed with offers...barring that, I think what you are doing here on FR to help educate us all is wonderful. ;-D Anything that brings INFORMATION to the huge FR databank is wonderful, imho.

Did you read Aristeides' links? Spooky.

[Judith Anne]

I DO think it's spread through the air, commonly.