Posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus
This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:
* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.
But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *
The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:
But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.
The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.
If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.
That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.
How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.
What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
Develop a good plan and stick with it.
I think there was one 32 year old Chinese female who died with SARS.
Does this put him in the timeframe of the Amoy Garden's (more virulent) infections? Interesting.
I think you and others do a very good job looking at only *part* of the picture coupled with an inability to 'mine for facts' even in material of dubious origin (I haven't read *just* people's daily material nor have I excluded it) -
- ancillary to that might be a lack of knowledge as to how cantagion can spread and breed, how reactions by the public in this day and age 'forces' them to treat such threats serious and to begin anew stiffer regimens of 'health' practices thereby effectively reducing the spread of contagion (MANY people on these threads have covered the 'poor personal health practices' by some today - do you really THINK that poor practices could not someday in some region on earth result in the spread of a nasty viral contagion?).
ALL the following factors, such as how fast does this disease spread, how long can it live outside a 'host', what, if any, is the incubation period, what effects it has on person's body are at some stage identifiable and qunatifiable - this isn't some 'magic' illness that spreads by no mechanical interaction between persons, so, this comes down to identifying at least those factors I just spelled out in order to reduce the 'spread' (the coupling from person to person) of this disease.
This isn't magic - it involves science and a LARGE chunk of that involves the application of a lot of logos in finding, reducing, compiling a HUGE number of observations and data into meaningful concepts, 'models' and that clear understanding necessary in order to recommend curative and preventative actions ...
I thought you were closer the first time.
But my understanding is that the N95 masks, of which I have procured several models with a unit count in the dozens, filter out particles with a size greater than 0.3 micron. The coronavirus itself is though to have a size of approximately 0.1 micron, which means it would slide through the mask unfettered. But since the virus particle is typically surrounded by sputum, the package will exceed the 0.3 micron size and therefore be filtered. A truly aerosolized, airborne particle would be another matter.
If you elect to purchase masks, consider that hospital staffs are changing them every shift, more often if damaged or made wet. Therefore do not assume that one or two masks will get you through this developing crisis. You will need quite a few.
Also, because sputum-to-eye transmission appears to be a possibility (based on the B.C. nurse situation), you will want to cover your eyes with a goggle of some sort if the situation demands it. I am experimenting by modifying a reasonably good quality dive mask to fit over the N95 mask. This is the type of dive goggle that looks like a heavy-duty pair of safety glasses; not the kind with a big flat face plate. It looks like all I need to do is cut out the nose portion and fit it over the N95 mask. There are other types of goggle, of course, that can be used. I wouldn't use a ski goggle; however, with its abundant built-in ventilation. Yes, condensation will be a problem but I live in the desert. As I see it, the goggles and mask need to be worn only when in the position of possibly being directly exposed to someone who might have the disease (almost any urban situation with people within 25 feet would qualify).
While I'm at it, don't forget the Purell and surgical gloves. They might be the most important safety devices of all for the majority of people.
I thought you were closer the first time.
Thank you! LOL.
The mask will filter out almost 100% of .4 micron particles and about 90% of .1 micron particles. However, even aerosols will not contain only one virus. The length of wearing time is important, as you point out. Fluid and oils make the filter less effective. The mask is water resistant to guard against that. It's not a complete guarantee against the coronavirus but it's quite effective.
When I retired from chip-making, we were routinely printing patterns in the .25 micron range.
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