Posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Also Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus
This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse that World Health Officials are admitting. The New York Times is reporting today that the death rate in Toronto, Canada is 9.5% and the mystery disease is still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:
* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.
But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *
The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:
But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.
The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.
If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly total of 265 or even to 365.
That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.
How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like are some answers.
What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
Oh, the irony. We are thousands of miles away fighting a war to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Lo and behold we have a modern day plague brewing.
What if you threw a plague and no one was paying attention?!
I don't know. I live
across the country from them.
I hope someone has...
My family had a terrible flu about 2 months ago. One of the odd symptoms was an excuciating pain in the lower back. I never cough and I was coughing so hard my chest ached. It lingered for about a week.
I am thinking it is probably just a flu like illness. But he should be checked out none the less.
The hallmark symptoms of SARS are fever greater than 100.4 F (38.0 C) and cough (usually a dry cough), difficulty breathing, or other respiratory symptoms.
Symptoms found in more than half of the first 138 SARS patients included (in the order of how commonly they appeared):
fever (in 100 percent of the patients)
chills and shaking (in over 70 percent of the patients)
muscle aches (in 60 percent of the patients)
cough
headache
Less common symptoms included (also in order):
dizziness
productive cough (sputum)
sore throat
runny nose
nausea and vomiting
diarrhea
In the past you have attempted to prove your point by citing articles such as this: WHO Officials Study SARS Situation in S. China Province and this: A Malicious Act Doesn't Help Improve the Situation, both of which were from the "People's Daily", the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party in China. The source may just be coincidence, but most people I know do not place much weight on the People's Daily.
The first article referenced above was written shortly after the government admitted they had been lying about the number of cases in China, and Guangdong in particular, for the second month in a row. The Minister of Health even issued an official apology, although apparently the apology was for foreign consumption only. It was not reported inside China.
The second article was an attack on Western media, specifically The Wall Street Journal, for basically calling the Chinese liars. The Chinese were offended. (Imagine!)
Amazingly, in spite of being caught in so many lies, the government of China is most likely STILL lying. You might check out this article: China hid SARS patients - report about how patients were driven around in taxicabs while WHO was visiting one hospital, and how they were moved to a hotel during another visit.
It's easy to cover things up when the outside medical personnel you cite as "observers" are visiting pre-approved locations, interviewing pre-approved persons, and collecting pre-authorized information.
If you want a sneak preview of what may be tomorrow's news, go here: China to admit far more SARS cases. If MSNBC is right, then Beijing is about to admit to 8 times more confirmed cases than they have previously admitted to in Beijing alone, and to 500 more "suspected" cases in Beijing alone.
The process used in Beijing was the same one followed earlier in Guangdong. After twice saying they would cooperate, and then changing their mind at the last minute, the WHO was finally allowed to send in a small team. The team was allowed to visit pre-approved locations and talk to pre-approved people, but it was all arranged well in advance.
In light of all this, do you still think it is "logical" to rely on ANY information provided by the government of China?
If you still think the "logical" response is to believe the Chinese, then be my guest. I am off to a late start to an out of town weekend, so I won't be able to respond until Monday, but I'm sure plenty of people on FR will be available.
SARS patients are free of the virus once the symptoms leave. "SARS is most infectious in the incubation period. Once the symptoms disappear, the virus also goes. This virus is not like HIV, which remains in the body forever," Seth said.
Has anyone heard this from elsewhere?
It took them years to come clean on AIDS.
I'm all set. I chuckled to myself this morning when I got a call from one of the delivery services. "Mr. blam, aren't you the one down there that keeps his gate locked all the time?" Yes. "Will you open it at 10:30am today, we have a delivery for you." LOL.
I'm by nature something of a hermit.
I am envious. My dream is to retire out to the NM desert Georgia O'Keefe style...
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