Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.

perloin

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Tue	04/15		42	304	1,232		3.5%	32.8%		14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582		6.0%	8.2%	19.6%
Averages			35	258			17.7%	197.0%		9		11.0%	2		3.0%	11		14.0%	27		88.8%			9.3%	18.6%	40.1%
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time

[per loin]

Yes. I remember reading that the lungs looked almost like the patient had died of a hemmorhagic fever, but I've not a source for that handy.

[per loin]

For the while that would fit my schedule. I can post the Hong Kong chart by about 6 AM, west coast time. Should it be posted as a vanity?

[EternalHope]

This virus could already be out there, widespread, and the people we are seeing are the ones reporting to the hospital.

This is one of the biggest questions on the planet.

1. If lots of people have the disease and just don't know it, then it is both completely out of the box, and not nearly as nasty in percentage terms as it seems.

2. If very few, but some, people have such mild cases that they do not know they are sick, then we have a disease fully as nasty as we see in Hong Kong, plus no way to make sure we have all cases in quarantine. This is the worst case scenario.

3. If ALL patients get sick enough to know they are sick, and they are not contagious until they are visibly sick, then we have a built-in way to slow down its spread. This is probably the best case.

The evidence thus far is scanty, but it does not seem to support the "many mild cases" scenario. Aside from the fact that the U.S. CDC and the WHO have indicated they do not think that is the case, the best "laboratory" example we have does not support it either. Prince of Wales Hospital had very few mild cases, and a very controlled group people to monitor/check.

On a larger scale, we are not seeing community transmission from unknown carriers anywhere in the world except in Hong Kong and China. Even in Hong Kong, community transmission from unknown sources seems to be rare. Hence, the evidence thus far does not support the "many mild cases" postulate.

[EternalHope]

Looks like we need some guidance from a moderator.

Should a daily SARS update thread be originally posted as a vanity, or should it start off somewhere else, such as "front page news"?

[CathyRyan]

Torontonians get new SARS alert Residents told to stay home at any symptom of the disease; Catholics change Easter communion procedures

TORONTO -- As Christians enter the most important week of their religious calendar, Roman Catholic leaders have ordered changes to holy communion procedures to limit the chance of infection from SARS.

And as the infection now spreads into the community at large, public health authorities are urging millions of Toronto-area residents Tuesday to stay home if they have any symptom of the disease -- from high fever to a dry cough or bad headache.

The warnings were the strongest health officials have directed at the general public since the outbreak began a month ago. Most previous advisories had been aimed at people exposed to known sources of the ailment.

"If you are feeling ill or have a fever, do not go to work, do not go to school. Do not go out into the community. Wait until your illness is sorted out, or you are feeling better," said Dr. James Young, Ontario's commissioner of public security.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/894228/posts