Young people predominate in latest Sars deaths

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sars/story/0,13036,936691,00.html ^ | Guardian

[per loin]

Young people predominate in latest Sars deaths

Staff and agencies
Monday April 14, 2003

Another seven people have died from Sars in Hong Kong, raising the country's death toll from the virus to 47 and the global figure to 140.

What has surprised doctors in Hong Kong, though, is that six of the people who died recently were relatively young with no other illnesses. Until now, many of the fatalities have been elderly people or patients suffering from other chronic health problems, such as heart or kidney diseases.

Doctors in Hong Kong have begun prescribing heavier doses of medicine during the early stages of Sars - severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Prior to the most recent deaths, Hong Kong officials had said that most patients without aggravating health conditions seemed to respond well to a treatment of anti-viral drugs and steroids.

The acting director of Hong Kong's hospital authority, Dr Ko Wing-man, warned of the potentially severe side effects of increasing doses of medicine for heart, blood and kidney problems.

The senior executive manager of the hospital authority, Dr Liu Shao-haei, said on Monday that some of the younger patients were hospitalised when they were already in a serious condition, and their health worsened even after they received intensive care.

Despite efforts to find an effective treatment for the disease, an expert expressed concern that the virus has mutated after he observed that patients at the Prince of Wales Hospital, which was hard-hit by a Sars outbreak, displayed differences in infectiousness, symptoms and the severity of their illness.

Early investigations had revealed that the virus believed to be causing Sars had "mutated, but not to a great extent", said Stephen Tsui, a biochemist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong on Monday.

"We want to find out whether it's because the virus is different that causes such differences," he said. "If we can figure that out, we can then predict which patient will be afflicted more severely."

Hong Kong reported 40 new cases on Monday, bringing the total number of infected people to 1,190. Some 229 people have already recovered.

[per loin]

Sheet1

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition										Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got Well	%	Dead	%	Total Gone	%	Still In Hosp	%	Elapsed Hosp-Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
Wed	03/12		10		10											10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%									24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%									29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%									37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%									42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%									95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%									123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	3.3%	5	3.3%	10	6.7%	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		5	2.9%	6	3.5%	11	6.4%	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		7	3.4%	6	3.0%	13	6.4%	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		7	3.2%	8	3.6%	15	6.8%	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		7	2.8%	8	3.2%	15	6.1%	232	93.9%	1,291		19.0%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		12	4.6%	10	3.8%	22	8.5%	238	91.5%	1,529		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		14	4.9%	10	3.5%	24	8.4%	262	91.6%	1,791		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		16	5.1%	10	3.2%	26	8.2%	290	91.8%	2,081		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		19	5.2%	10	2.7%	29	7.9%	338	92.1%	2,419		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		25	5.9%	11	2.6%	36	8.5%	389	91.5%	2,808		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		43	9.1%	12	2.6%	55	11.7%	415	88.3%	3,223		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		64	12.1%	13	2.5%	77	14.5%	453	85.5%	3,676		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		79	13.0%	15	2.5%	94	15.4%	516	84.6%	4,192		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		84	12.3%	16	2.3%	100	14.6%	585	85.4%	4,777		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		89	12.6%	16	2.3%	105	14.8%	603	85.2%	5,380		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		98	13.4%	17	2.3%	115	15.7%	619	84.3%	5,999		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		99	13.0%	17	2.2%	116	15.2%	645	84.8%	6,644		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		107	13.4%	20	2.5%	127	15.9%	673	84.1%	7,317		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		116	13.8%	22	2.6%	138	16.4%	704	83.6%	8,021		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		127	14.4%	23	2.6%	150	17.0%	733	83.0%	8,754		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		138	14.9%	25	2.7%	163	17.6%	765	82.4%	9,519		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		142	14.6%	27	2.8%	169	17.4%	801	82.6%	10,320		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		154	15.4%	30	3.0%	184	18.4%	814	81.6%	11,134		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		169	16.0%	32	3.0%	201	19.0%	858	81.0%	11,992		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		215	19.4%	35	3.2%	250	22.6%	858	77.4%	12,850		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		223	19.4%	40	3.5%	263	22.9%	887	77.1%	13,737		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		229	19.2%	47	3.5%	276	23.2%	914	76.8%	14,651		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Averages			35	256			18.1%	203.0%			10.6%		2.9%		13.6%		89.2%			9.3%	19.2%	41.7%

[Billthedrill]

This is precisely the same pattern found in the great influenza epidemic following World War One. It was especially cruel since many who had survived the horrors of the trenches succumbed to a virus after their return home.

This occurs because older people have been, through their lives, challenged by enough different varieties of virii to have built up a partial immunity to something just similar enough to help. Also, younger adults are more physically active and hence exposed to a wider variety of disease agents. Add international travel to the mix - as it was in 1919, it is much more so now - and you have a pandemic if you're not careful.

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[SauronOfMordor]

It's not so much that the death rate among young people is going up, as much as it's taking longer for young people to finally succumb

[Dog Gone]

Only 229 out of 1,190 have recovered so far in Hong Kong? This is certainly a nasty bug.

[EternalHope]

6 got well, 7 died.

Hong Kong no longer has enough intensive care beds or isolation wards.

[per loin]

As the HK hospital system reaches toward its breaking point, I'd expect that patients would be released at the earliest possible moment. But the low numbers being released indicate that people do not shake this bug off very quickly.

I've seen some mention of dementia among recovered patients. Anyone here have any info on that?

[per loin]

Have you a source for data on how long those dying have been hospitalized?

[InShanghai]

Thanks again for the ping, and kudos to you for keeping the list going! It's by far the best information I've found on the internet...

I've seen some mention of dementia among recovered patients...

Interesting if true. I had heard that there was also permament lung damage. I would also like to find out if there's any truth to those stories.

[blam]

Walt Disney And Airlines Admit SARS Virus Is Crippling Business

[aristeides]

The Spanish flu of 1918 killed a lot of people in their teens and twenties. The people who just died of SARS were aged 37 to 52, I believe. Not old, certainly, but more accurately described as middle-aged than young, unlike many of the victims of the Spanish flu.

[InShanghai]

I was certainly thinking teens to twenties. Maybe what they meant was younger than previous deaths. No children affected yet.

Time to take my vitamins!

[blam]

Breakthrough prompts vaccine hope for SARS

April 14 2003 at 09:52AM
IOL (South Africa)

A Canadian laboratory said its breakthrough discovery of the genetic sequence behind the deadly SARS virus could help develop an effective vaccine.

The Michael Smith Genome Sciences Centre in British Columbia said the genetic blueprint could also help develop a reliable diagnostic test for severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, the respiratory virus that has killed 128 people and infected nearly 3 200 around the world.

"This will allow people who design specific antivirals, of which I admit there aren't that many out there, but they have the basic information they need to design those and test to see if they work," said Caroline Astell, projects leader at the Genome Science Centre.

"In the longer term, they could develop a sub-unit vaccine that might protect everyone."

Calling the discovery, announced on Saturday, a huge step forward in the fight to control the spread of SARS, the researchers said the results could eventually help scientists understand why the virus is so deadly.

The SARS virus has killed 13 people in Canada, which is the only country outside Asia where people have died from the disease.

Across Canada, 283 probable or suspected cases have been reported.

The scientists in British Columbia posted the information at www.bcgsc.bc.ca Sars can lead to severe pneumonia. About four percent of those infected die.

The condition of the Pretoria businessman who is feared to have contracted SARS has improved.

Netcare spokesperson Mande Toubkin said the man was still on a ventilator in the intensive care unit in the Pretoria East Hospital, but that there was a general improvement in his condition. The 62-year-old man was admitted to hospital last week. - Staff Reporter

This article was originally published on page 1 of The Cape Argus on 14 April 2003

[riri]

At a minimum this should be able to help them chart the virus and see what other virus strains it compares to.

[SauronOfMordor]

Have you a source for data on how long those dying have been hospitalized?

No. You can get feel for how long between a case being reported and it being resolved one way or the other from the WHO breakdown by date. Looking at March 29, we see 470 cases and 10 deaths, april 2, we see 708 cases and 16 deaths, April 10 we see 998 cases, 30 deaths, and 154 recoveries. April 14 brings us to 1190 cases, 47 deaths and 229 recoveries. It seems like most of the March 29 cases are still unresolved (no recovery/no death), and that the ratio of death to recovery is getting worse.

[per loin]

There was a malfunction of a formula (read: operator error) in the chart I posted earlier. I'll post the fixed one shortly.

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Averages			35	256			18.1%	203.0%		8		10.6%	1		2.9%	10		13.6%	27		89.2%			9.5%	19.2%	41.7%

[_Jim]

Title of article:

Young people predominate in latest Sars deaths

In body/text of article:

six of the people who died recently were relatively young

The *two* are not equivalent in my book ...

[Judith Anne]

Thank you for your hard work on this...

About the dementia, I haven't heard anything. But I do know that people who are placed on a respirator are at high risk for severe psychological reaction. Speaking personally, my father was on a respirator for three weeks and was completely psychotic the entire time.

It's in my personal advance directive that I never be placed on a respirator for any reason whatsoever.