A Baghdad Pristina?

The Russia Journal ^ | April 10, 2003 | The Russia Journal

[pierrem15]

Few events in recent history brought the Russians so much false pride and celebration as the dash to Pristina airport and its occupation in the aftermath of the Kosovo war.

Russian forces moved into the airport during the night without notifying anyone, a few hours ahead of the scheduled NATO deployment of troops. This, after staunch opposition to the war that almost ruined Russia-U.S. relations. It was a colorful stunt, but Russia gained little from it besides alienating much of Western opinion. In fact, it could have led to a Russia-U.S. shooting match.

For months thereafter, Russian generals were given medals, their egos were stoked and endless rounds of self-congratulation were heard in Moscow. Is something similar about to happen in Iraq - not just involving Russia this time, but also certain NATO member countries?

A Russian Army embarrassed by its poverty in the face of the opulence, technical prowess and might of NATO - and especially the United States - took enormous pride in the Pristina dash. TV commentators and newspaper columnists were so euphoric that one might have thought it was the Russians that had won the Balkan conflict, in which they failed to save their Slav brother Slobodan Milosevic from then-U.S. President Bill Clinton's assault. Milosevic is now in The Hague undergoing a long trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Since then, the Russian Army has had to face the ignominy of an embarrassing campaign in its own Chechen republic. Three years after President Vladimir Putin sent troops into this breakaway territory, more than 50,000 people may have died, including some 5,000 servicemen. But that is not all - bomb blasts, ambushes and skirmishes are daily occurrences. Chechen terrorists drove right into the center of Moscow and took a theater full of people hostage. Then, others managed to blow up the headquarters of the Chechen government installed by Moscow in Grozny.

Now, after an impressive military campaign on the part of the Americans and English, the Russians and French want to get back into the game.

According to some sources, there are proposals to do "another Pristina" on the Americans, this time in Baghdad - and on a much larger scale, with many more players involved. And this could be the true subject of the upcoming summit between U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Russia, Germany and France in St. Petersburg.

This time, Annan, himself feeling marginalized by the United States, could offer the white-painted aircraft and infrastructure of his organization as the Trojan Horse to deliver Russian and French forces to Baghdad and other key Iraqi cities.

If it works, without firing a shot, just as in Afghanistan, Russia would achieve a considerable strategic victory. It would be a diplomatically daring, rather underhanded but smart move to protect Russian interests in postwar Iraq. If this course of action is decided upon, the French and Germans are also likely to go along and sponsor its daring goals.

Naturally, just as the United States and Britain did when they named their war "Iraqi Freedom," Russians appreciate that such an operation must be done under the cover of a humanitarian effort.

Even if the United Nations is marginalized in its role in Iraq, it is unlikely that it will be excluded from distributing rations to the Iraqi people. And what is there to stop Annan from requesting security from Russia and France?

A move into Baghdad to provide humanitarian assistance would bring even more public and international support to the troika of Russia, France and Germany than their opposition to a UN Security Council resolution legitimizing the war has already garnered.

Arab countries would also welcome the presence of countries that had opposed the invasion.

We may be about to see a new, almost-unprecedented geopolitical move. The war may almost be over, but the games are just beginning.

[pierrem15]

Interesting, but I think ultimately farcical take on the situation.

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[Travis McGee]

Don't rule it out! It's right up Pooty-poot's alley.

[Travis McGee]

HEAD'S UP!

[Arkinsaw]

It will be mighty hard to land aircraft with bulldozers, Bradley's and Abrams scattered around the runways. In this case WE are in posession of the airfields and landing on them if we didn't want them to would be problematic.

As for coming in over land, they would have to get permission from somebody. We would of course know about it and see them moving. We would have plenty of time for public warnings and scary rhetoric before they arrived.

[spokeshave]

Pristina was a group of lightly armed troops in a few wheeled vehicles.

No way this can be accomplished against US British forces.

[pierrem15]

What's interesting is the attitude: they still think we can be strong-armed diplomatically. It really hasn't sunk in that we don't give a rat's a$$ what they think, say, or do.

I read one impassioned editorial in a German newspaper calling for the diplomatic isolation of Bush and the US. I wanted to respond with a big "yawn."

[Minty]

The one who wrote that forgets they are dealing with Bush. Only if he aproves it they will be there and by the way he has handled himself until now, he is very much in control of all his cards.

[Arkinsaw]

In some ways, the Europeans (and the Russians especially) are starting to behave as if they are in a fantasy world similar to the Arabs.

[EaglesUpForever]

Russians appreciate that such an operation must be done under the cover of a humanitarian effort.

Russia and france have made a mockery of the UN, *everything* they do is under the cover of being "anti-War" or "humanitarian" when in truth they enjoy nothing more than seeing dead Americans. Keep the UN out of Iraq.

[pierrem15]

"fantasy":

Yup, in a big way too. Although the progress in Iraq has caused some of the more sensible types to point out that the EU spends (in toto) about 40% as much as the US and gets about 10% as much bang for the buck (because their armies are run as jobs programs, like our educational system).

[dila813]

This is why the UN needs to stay out, if their troops start to come out of those plans we should blow them up.

Tell them we thought they were terrorists, we should have been told prior to the arrival of armed troops.

Opps!, 10k dead frenchmen!

[Mike Darancette]

This time, Annan, himself feeling marginalized by the United States, could offer the white-painted aircraft and infrastructure of his organization as the Trojan Horse to deliver Russian and French forces to Baghdad and other key Iraqi cities.

They should be careful, they could get what they want.

This happens then the US puts it tanks back on the trailers pulls out it's aircraft and withdraws to Kuwait. The combined resources (monetary and military) of the UN (less the US) couldn't control what would happen next. You would then see 1,000 Mogadishus, blue hats on body bags.

[dpwiener]

This is why the UN needs to stay out, if their troops start to come out of those plans we should blow them up. Tell them we thought they were terrorists, we should have been told prior to the arrival of armed troops. Opps!, 10k dead frenchmen!

Actually, that's not too far off what might happen. It wouldn't be that blatant, but there could easily be a few "friendly fire" incidents. After all, we've already accidentally killed some Kurdish allies, as well as our own U.S. and British forces. I'm sure we'd express our deep regrets if French and Russian forces were accidentally wiped out.

But the whole proposition is absurd on its face. France would never attempt such a bold gamble. The limit of their daring is to threaten more U.N. vetoes. And Putin is much too smart to actually pull such a stunt. He knows it would create enormous blowback on a host of issues that are far more important to U.S./Russian relations, and it wouldn't work anyway. So what would be the point?

Remember, this is from a Russian newspaper editorial. Pay it as much attention as you would a New York Times editorial.