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Posted on 04/13/2003 9:30:12 AM PDT by Asher
SARS virus threatens to become 21st century's first major disease
PARIS (AFP) - The SARS virus, the fatal respiratory illness confounding doctors and researchers, could become the first serious new disease of the century and reach pandemic proportions in a world where people are constantly on the move.
With the exception of AIDS (news - web sites), most of the worrying diseases that surfaced in the last century, like the Ebola (news - web sites) virus, never really posed a danger to public health at an international level.
This was mainly because transmission of the disease between humans was never optimal or because those who fell ill were simply too sick to travel.
But global airline travel has provided SARS with an ideal vector.
A month after the World Health Organisation (WHO) sounded the international alert over Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has killed more than 120 people among more than 3,000 reported cases, there is still serious concern among the experts despite the measures taken to contain it.
The WHO is not hiding fears that the virus, which begins with high fever, breathing difficulties and a dry cough, could spread to Africa.
"The mortality rate is around four percent, so 96 percent of people pull through all right," said WHO doctor Isabelle Nuttall, but she admits that "rate depends entirely on the kind of treament that is available to people."
Another reason for concern is the number of hospital staff who have contracted SARS in the areas where it has spread most rapidly, like China, Hong Kong and Singapore, but also in Canada.
In trying to trace back the source of the outbreaks, scientists have discovered a number of "super-contaminators", people who for some unknown reason spread the virus really well.
In the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, where SARS apparently broke out in November, one person alone could have spread the disease to more than 100 others.
Do these "super-contaminators" carry or spread particularly large quantities of the virus? Do other factors amplify its spread? Do these people carry another strain? All unanswered questions the experts are posing.
According to David Heymann, executive director for transmissable diseases at the WHO, no one is even sure whether someone without symptoms can spread SARS.
However SARS, for which there is no vaccination, is no where near as contagious as influenza, which kills around 20,000 people a year in the United States and from 250,000 to half a million worldwide annually.
SARS is spread most of the time in simple face-to-face human contact by saliva or other body fluids from a person who has the illness.
The first simple step in protection against it, as with most diseases, is to wash your hands.
Certain enigmas surrounding the centres of the two main outbreaks in Hong Kong are troubling the experts.
For example, why did no member of staff at the Metropole Hotel contract it, and where did the outbreak at the Amoy Gardens residential complex come from?
At Amoy Gardens, where 278 cases were discovered, transmission through a defective sewage system remains one hypothesis, while the likelihood that rats or cockroaches spread the disease has been ruled out.
Researchers are focusing on a new coronavirus, viruses named for their halo-like appearance, which could be the cause of SARS. These have been found in people who have contracted the disease in several countries, but not in people who are in good health.
The hypothesis that a co-infection, a second virus or bacteria operating in concert, is responsible has also not been completely ruled out, said Sylvie Van der Werf from the Pasteur Institute in Paris.
Tests are being evaluated at the moment which can detect if a coronavirus is present, but they can't be used to rule out possible infection with SARS.
But the test that would really slowly the disease down - a quick test of whether a person is a carrier before they show any symptoms -- is still a way off.
And that's the problem. Here in America we can handle hundreds or even thousands of SARS cases with a very low mortality rate.
But if a few million of us developed it, there wouldn't be enough ICU beds to handle the load.
We are either successful isolating the victims or our lives are forever changed. That much is obvious, at least to me.
Add Mexico City to the list. And then think about what panic in Mexico will mean to the U.S.
Ummm, do you really think Hong Kong would destroy it's entire economy, shut down hospitals etc. based on a scam?
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