Posted on 04/10/2003 12:56:44 PM PDT by knighthawk
THIS incredible military victory vindicates not only George W. Bush, Tony Blair and John Howard.
Above all, it vindicates the military judgment and strategic vision of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Make no mistake, Rumsfeld is immensely enhanced by this victory and he will use it ruthlessly to push his agenda of military reform and a more assertive US posture in the world.
All of the media analysts and many of the military analysts should hang their heads in shame. Everything they told us was wrong.
They said Rumsfeld had unduly interfered with the generals; he had abandoned the prudent Powell doctrine of assembling overwhelming force; he had insisted on blind ideological doggedness by sending in far too few troops.
Well, all that was so much eyewash. Rumsfeld's historic project transforming the US military into a lighter, faster, more precise and much more mobile beast has had a huge boost.
This project is called in the Pentagon "transformation". Already the different arms of the US military are trying to appropriate that tag for themselves.
The air force used to be the natural transformation service almost by definition all about speed, precision and mobility.
But now the army and the Marines are making the argument for themselves. Look how fast we travelled, they say. Look at the distance we covered.
But Rumsfeld's victory goes far beyond military reform. It's little written, but Rumsfeld is very tight with Bush himself.
Rumsfeld talks the way Bush thinks smart, blunt, sassy and direct. Yet Rumsfeld is also a prodigiously formidable bureaucratic insider, as Henry Kissinger makes clear in the third volume of his memoirs (Kissinger and Rumsfeld served together in the Ford administration).
In particular, Rumsfeld's position is now greatly strengthened vis-a-vis Secretary of State Colin Powell. Bush looks at Powell and sees the misery, humiliation and futility of the United Nations process. He looks at Rumsfeld and sees victory.
There are even rumours that Powell may not serve out the rest of Bush's first presidential term. That is not to say Powell's moderation and international credibility are not valued by Bush, who likes having divergent advisers among whom he adjudicates.
All the worst-case scenarios predicted by Rumsfeld's enemies Hussein unleashing missiles on Israel, Iraq's oil fields going up in flames, chemical weapons killing US soldiers and Iraqi civilians in large numbers, a prolonged and indecisive war, massive resistance from the Iraqi people did not come to pass.
Despite Rumsfeld's boost, the implications of the Iraq victory for the future of US foreign policy are not clear.
Certainly, the Bush administration is not planning a series of pre-emptive military strikes. But as some insiders put it, there will be a battle over whether Paul Wolfowitz or Karl Rove provides the chief interpretation of the war for the President.
Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld's deputy at Defence, is intellectually the most formidable neo-conservative in the Bush administration. The neo-cons could see Iraq not as a licence for endless military action but as an encouragement to put hostile, terrorist sponsoring, weapons proliferating regimes under pressure.
Rove is the President's chief political adviser and likely saw Iraq as a huge risk, one which the President took for good reasons and which, having worked out well, is likely to yield substantial political and policy rewards. But it should be followed by a deep breath and a period of consolidation.
Of course, administration attention will focus overwhelmingly on the need to reconstruct Iraq.
Whichever way it goes, Rumsfeld, who in his first year in office seemed ineffective, is now an immeasurably enhanced figure in Washington.
Bush played Powell's hand b/c it was the right thing to do and stopped the Dems and Sec Council from complaining about US unilateralism.
If the UN went along, great. If they didn't, they would lose. It was a no-lose bet.
I would take those all the time. Bush does, and that's why he is the President.
I don't mind having Powell at State with a moderating voice. And he has been a good soldier once a decision is made. He has been supportive of the war once the UN route was discarded. However, where I think Powell hurts us is his reliance on the old guard at Foggy Bottom, the Clintonites. Rumsfeld cleaned house at the Pentagon; Powell has left his intact, and they run around interfering with this war.
Powell did blab too much to Woodward.
The question then falls as to what Condi Rice will be doing. If Bush selects her for VP candidate, great! If not, she would be a top choice to go to State, or even Homeland Security if Ridge wants out. I don't see her sitting as NSA for a second term.
Either way, Bush needs to make sure that once the Iraq War leaves the daily flood of news coverage that he hands his now considerable political capital to Rove. Rove has proven to be a great political mind and after winning big on the mid-terms and now winning big on the war, Bush's political bank book is bulging. He can't afford to get careless in his spending of it now, and Rove is clearly to one to hold the political purse-strings.
First thing domestically is to break the deadlock over the judges. I was upset at the Senate, still am to a point, over not being aggresive enough. Bush may now have enough political power to tighten the screws there without any vulnerable Republican Senators getting dirt on them. If Bush can win this battle, he might completely break the back of the centrist Democrats and cause the widening rift between the left and central branches of the party to become a giant gulf. If that happens, watch for Nader to make another run.
Anyway, enough rambling now, just nice to think on politics for a change.
And another thing....TELL THE WHITE HOUSE "NO" TO BARBARA BODINE!!!
I wanted to see Rummy run for Prez in the last THREE elections.
The present Republican Governor of Florida will do the running in 2008. -Tom
Thank you Elian for tipping the scales in Florida.
Condi Rice would be an excellent replacement for Powell.
As for Rumsfeld, I have always considered him the most intelligent person in the administration. Perfect for the position he holds and consider us blessed to have him. I shudder when I think of Cohen......Albright and that america hating crew.
He's too multilaterist for my tastes, but his input is valuable.
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