Biggest winner of all is Rumsfeld

The Australian ^ | April 11 2003

[knighthawk]

THIS incredible military victory vindicates not only George W. Bush, Tony Blair and John Howard.

Above all, it vindicates the military judgment and strategic vision of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Make no mistake, Rumsfeld is immensely enhanced by this victory and he will use it ruthlessly to push his agenda of military reform and a more assertive US posture in the world.

All of the media analysts and many of the military analysts should hang their heads in shame. Everything they told us was wrong.

They said Rumsfeld had unduly interfered with the generals; he had abandoned the prudent Powell doctrine of assembling overwhelming force; he had insisted on blind ideological doggedness by sending in far too few troops.

Well, all that was so much eyewash. Rumsfeld's historic project – transforming the US military into a lighter, faster, more precise and much more mobile beast – has had a huge boost.

This project is called in the Pentagon "transformation". Already the different arms of the US military are trying to appropriate that tag for themselves.

The air force used to be the natural transformation service – almost by definition all about speed, precision and mobility.

But now the army and the Marines are making the argument for themselves. Look how fast we travelled, they say. Look at the distance we covered.

But Rumsfeld's victory goes far beyond military reform. It's little written, but Rumsfeld is very tight with Bush himself.

Rumsfeld talks the way Bush thinks – smart, blunt, sassy and direct. Yet Rumsfeld is also a prodigiously formidable bureaucratic insider, as Henry Kissinger makes clear in the third volume of his memoirs (Kissinger and Rumsfeld served together in the Ford administration).

In particular, Rumsfeld's position is now greatly strengthened vis-a-vis Secretary of State Colin Powell. Bush looks at Powell and sees the misery, humiliation and futility of the United Nations process. He looks at Rumsfeld and sees victory.

There are even rumours that Powell may not serve out the rest of Bush's first presidential term. That is not to say Powell's moderation and international credibility are not valued by Bush, who likes having divergent advisers among whom he adjudicates.

All the worst-case scenarios predicted by Rumsfeld's enemies – Hussein unleashing missiles on Israel, Iraq's oil fields going up in flames, chemical weapons killing US soldiers and Iraqi civilians in large numbers, a prolonged and indecisive war, massive resistance from the Iraqi people – did not come to pass.

Despite Rumsfeld's boost, the implications of the Iraq victory for the future of US foreign policy are not clear.

Certainly, the Bush administration is not planning a series of pre-emptive military strikes. But as some insiders put it, there will be a battle over whether Paul Wolfowitz or Karl Rove provides the chief interpretation of the war for the President.

Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld's deputy at Defence, is intellectually the most formidable neo-conservative in the Bush administration. The neo-cons could see Iraq not as a licence for endless military action but as an encouragement to put hostile, terrorist sponsoring, weapons proliferating regimes under pressure.

Rove is the President's chief political adviser and likely saw Iraq as a huge risk, one which the President took for good reasons and which, having worked out well, is likely to yield substantial political and policy rewards. But it should be followed by a deep breath and a period of consolidation.

Of course, administration attention will focus overwhelmingly on the need to reconstruct Iraq.

Whichever way it goes, Rumsfeld, who in his first year in office seemed ineffective, is now an immeasurably enhanced figure in Washington.

[knighthawk]

Ping

[bedolido]

I'd love to see him run for prez against Bill's former in 2008

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[Puppage]

[knighthawk]

Me too!

[ConservativeDude]

ah, the greasy pole.

i love this sort of insider analysis.

what if Powell does leave sometime before the '04 elections?

my guess is that either Wolfowitz or Rice would become State head, the latter if GWB decides to get serious about the Rice '08 movement. Regardless, if either of those happen, it is basically then State and Defense speaking from one "voice" and perspective (which would be contra what GWB was taught at HBS, of course, and contra his history, as the author points out).

I have posited this question here before, but I think it is worth repeating: As the youngest Secy of Defense ever (and as Kissinger makes clear in the referenced memoirs), Rummy wanted to be Prez.

Is he REALLY too old in '08? What would he be, 77 or 78? I guess that is a bit old at the front end, but he is a pretty shrap tack, much sharper than Dole in '96....

[TopQuark]

If that were to happen, I can only imagine the stench from the pants of the French.

[Publius]

He's right about Powell. After a decent interval, Condi Rice goes to State.

[Rummyfan]

Me too - but I doubt he'll want to do a term or two as CinC at that point in his life.

[3AngelaD]

Go Rummy!

[bedolido]

"Me too - but I doubt he'll want to do a term or two as CinC at that point in his life."

Good point. still be nice if he did though.

[RetiredArmy]

He'd be pretty old by 08 to last till 12 and 16. He's in early 70s now isn't he?

[ConservativeDude]

seems we all are thinking along the same lines....

[Ga Rob]

Good...that's all I have to say...GOOD!!!!!

[ConservativeDude]

"After a decent interval"

Seems to me Powell has had that already. I think, personally, that he has done a fine job, though he is not as conservative as many of us here....

[Publius]

The key thing Powell did was set up the UN for irrelevence. That in itself was important because it sets the table, a year or two from now, for the US to pull out of the UN and encourage its final collapse.

The question is, did Powell set the UN up deliberately? Or did Bush set up Powell?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Rumsfeld is terrific!

OFFICIAL BUMP(TOPIC)LIST

[ConservativeDude]

"The question is, did Powell set the UN up deliberately? Or did Bush set up Powell?"

Fascinating. I don't believe that Bush deals treacherously with his own, but I do believe that he is a master tactician and the more the D's and other socialists think that he's a fool, the better off we are. You are right. He did one or the other. The answer lies in whether Powell is a closet hawk, or Bush is a closet Machiavel.

I go with the former because I like Powell.

[JSteff]

"Or did Bush set up Powell?"

Best part is Powell probably did not even see it coming.