Deloping SARS Pandemic?

April 2003 | Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

[TheLion]

"Not sure where I read this - but they found a guy with very severe symptoms (now confirmed) of SARS that had taken 6 or 8 plane flights since he first had the symptoms. He had gone from the far east to africa to three cities in europe and back to the far east.
The only good news was he didn't land in the states."

What about all the people he exposed along the way?

[HardStarboard]

>>>What about all the people he exposed along the way? <<<

Thats the point - probably several hundreds....who ar now potential carriers themselves. Ouch!

[Quix]

Hitlery is certainly the right flavor.

I still like:

her unroyal lowness,
her hideous heinous--
Bwitch Shrillery.

[FreepForever]

However, there might be two possible errors in this model.

First, the epidemic started in China last November, but only made known to the world in March 10. Due to the shortened time span, this will make the model's rate of increase highly exaggerated.

Second, I don't believe the data China published previously AND even presently reflect any truth of the real situation. Since China's figure constitutes almost half of the total case, this will make the number of total case greatly underestimated.

These two possible may cancel out and offset each other depending on which is greater. And I really don't know on which side that it eventually will fall.

Let us hope that this number cruncher is wrong and on the high side.

[FreepForever]

Yes, it is confirmed. All flights he took are on the Lufthansa.

He began and ended his zigzaging trip both in Hong Kong.

[Mihalis]

...It seems to me that SARS has been losing momentum...still growing, but at a slower rate. Wishful thinking?...

I have a feeling you're right. Exponential models are great but some people use them everywhere.

[lainie]

FYI: Updating from 4/10 -- the projected possible number of 4,000 cases has happened, but it took over two cycles more than this model predicted.

1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th.

2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th.

3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th.

4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd.

I was just poking around the WHO site and remembered this email having been posted.

[TheLion]

Do you have any new theory based on the slowdown?

[lainie]

No, I haven't read any good theories. I'm no scientist. I do wonder whether the reports are keeping up and how badly inaccurate 3947 is.

[Snowy]

Deloping? Not another one! Hugh, Series, Vey...

[iceskater]

Do you have any idea if the 3947 number includes the people in military hospitals that China "forgot" to count early on in this situation.

[FreepForever]

Thanks for your update, lanie. Thank God you remember this rather old post. Do keep coming back to update the numbers if necessary. Thank you!

[lainie]

No, I have no idea. You're referring to the news which broke over the weekend? Given that we're talking about the WHO, I find the numbers suspect to say the least -- no matter what. But it's a place to start.