Deloping SARS Pandemic?

April 2003 | Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

[Lucas1]

This guy has been sending out email updates...since this started. Thought this was interesting...with the numbers.

Have no opininon one way or another as to whether SARS is going to become a pandemic or not...but the article is worth reading.

Letter...

Hi, Jeff... I'm writing to give your audience some sense of what they might expect relative to the SARS crisis as it is unfolding. I've supplied immediately below some dates and numbers infected that summarize a rather involved mathematical model in a few words.

1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th. 2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th. 3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th. 4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd. 5. To surpass 7,000 between April 21st to April 25th. 6. To surpass 8,000 beween April 23rd to April 27th. 7. To surpass 9,000 between April 25th to April 29th. 8. To surpass 10,000 between April 26th to April 30th.

The above data are generated employing a mathematical model. The model is exponential using an exponent of 1.12 and establishing 99% confidence intervals around the projected number of worldwide infected.

I have no idea if these numbers will actually pan-out to be the reality of the situation. Let's hope not. However, so to alert you and your audience, I wanted you to have these data. Should these numbers be close to accurate, I would expect that SARS will become more of a news item than the Iraq War toward the end of this month.

Should these numbers be right, indicating that the model is a useful predictor of future number infected, it would be reasonable to expect that:

1. Between May 6th to May 10th, there could be 20,000 cases worldwide. 2. Between May 16th and May 20th there could be 40,000 cases worldwide. 3. By the end of May, it would be reasonable to expect over 100,000 cases of SARS worldwide.

The month of May would be a very frightening time for the world relative to a developing SARS pandemic. There would be substantial impact by May, given the above scenario, on travel, commerce, and national securities of various nation-states. By May, if it is going to be serious, it WILL be serious by then.

Reports from various sources suggest a pandemic is unfolding. For example, "Unfortunately, it's an epidemic now that will become a pandemic," predicted Donald Low, chief microbiologist at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital." Source: http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/5552879.htm

However, another source opines: "It's too soon to tell whether a deadly new respiratory illness will become a global pandemic, but it would take extreme luck for it to be contained now, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, according the Associated Press today. "In an executive order signed Friday, Bush added SARS to the list of diseases for which health authorities have authority to involuntarily quarantine Americans. It's the first time a new disease has been added to the list in two decades. "If spread in the population," the order says, SARS "would have severe public health consequences."

Source: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/4/4/174732.shtml

Again, I provide these data to you, Jeff, so that you and your readers can effective guage the information presented by WHO and CDC, e.g., http://www.cdc.gov , and compare the developing real numbers from those organizations to the above model so to be able to anticipate a pandemic. If by April 22nd, we are seeing more than 6,000 people infected with SARS worldwide, it would be highly likely that we are headed into a pandemic. On the other hand, if by April 22nd, we are seeing the number of infected individuals worldwide hovering around 4,000 or less, we can all breath a sigh of relief as it would appear from that observation that efforts to control SARS are being successful and a pandemic has been averted. While there would still be regional epidemics, a global pandemic would not easily happen.

Thanks, Jeff, for your services to all of us.

Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

[TheLion]

"Not sure where I read this - but they found a guy with very severe symptoms (now confirmed) of SARS that had taken 6 or 8 plane flights since he first had the symptoms. He had gone from the far east to africa to three cities in europe and back to the far east.
The only good news was he didn't land in the states."

What about all the people he exposed along the way?

[HardStarboard]

>>>What about all the people he exposed along the way? <<<

Thats the point - probably several hundreds....who ar now potential carriers themselves. Ouch!

[Quix]

Hitlery is certainly the right flavor.

I still like:

her unroyal lowness,
her hideous heinous--
Bwitch Shrillery.

[FreepForever]

However, there might be two possible errors in this model.

First, the epidemic started in China last November, but only made known to the world in March 10. Due to the shortened time span, this will make the model's rate of increase highly exaggerated.

Second, I don't believe the data China published previously AND even presently reflect any truth of the real situation. Since China's figure constitutes almost half of the total case, this will make the number of total case greatly underestimated.

These two possible may cancel out and offset each other depending on which is greater. And I really don't know on which side that it eventually will fall.

Let us hope that this number cruncher is wrong and on the high side.

[FreepForever]

Yes, it is confirmed. All flights he took are on the Lufthansa.

He began and ended his zigzaging trip both in Hong Kong.

[Mihalis]

...It seems to me that SARS has been losing momentum...still growing, but at a slower rate. Wishful thinking?...

I have a feeling you're right. Exponential models are great but some people use them everywhere.

[lainie]

FYI: Updating from 4/10 -- the projected possible number of 4,000 cases has happened, but it took over two cycles more than this model predicted.

1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th.

2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th.

3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th.

4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd.

I was just poking around the WHO site and remembered this email having been posted.

[TheLion]

Do you have any new theory based on the slowdown?

[lainie]

No, I haven't read any good theories. I'm no scientist. I do wonder whether the reports are keeping up and how badly inaccurate 3947 is.

[Snowy]

Deloping? Not another one! Hugh, Series, Vey...

[iceskater]

Do you have any idea if the 3947 number includes the people in military hospitals that China "forgot" to count early on in this situation.

[FreepForever]

Thanks for your update, lanie. Thank God you remember this rather old post. Do keep coming back to update the numbers if necessary. Thank you!

[lainie]

No, I have no idea. You're referring to the news which broke over the weekend? Given that we're talking about the WHO, I find the numbers suspect to say the least -- no matter what. But it's a place to start.