Skip to comments.
Deloping SARS Pandemic?
April 2003
| Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.
Posted on 04/10/2003 12:16:02 PM PDT by Lucas1
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-54 last
To: HardStarboard
"Not sure where I read this - but they found a guy with very severe symptoms (now confirmed) of SARS that had taken 6 or 8 plane flights since he first had the symptoms. He had gone from the far east to africa to three cities in europe and back to the far east.
The only good news was he didn't land in the states."
What about all the people he exposed along the way?
41
posted on
04/10/2003 8:18:08 PM PDT
by
TheLion
To: TheLion
>>>
What about all the people he exposed along the way? <<< Thats the point - probably several hundreds....who ar now potential carriers themselves. Ouch!
To: Joy Angela
Hitlery is certainly the right flavor.
I still like:
her unroyal lowness,
her hideous heinous--
Bwitch Shrillery.
43
posted on
04/10/2003 9:52:44 PM PDT
by
Quix
(QUALITY RESRCH STDY BTWN BK WAR N PEACE VS BIBLE RE BIBLE CODES AT MAR BIBLECODESDIGEST.COM)
To: Lucas1; SHKMAN1212
However, there might be two possible errors in this model.
First, the epidemic started in China last November, but only made known to the world in March 10. Due to the shortened time span, this will make the model's rate of increase highly exaggerated.
Second, I don't believe the data China published previously AND even presently reflect any truth of the real situation. Since China's figure constitutes almost half of the total case, this will make the number of total case greatly underestimated.
These two possible may cancel out and offset each other depending on which is greater. And I really don't know on which side that it eventually will fall.
Let us hope that this number cruncher is wrong and on the high side.
44
posted on
04/11/2003 2:09:08 AM PDT
by
FreepForever
(China is the hub of all evil)
To: HardStarboard; TheLion
Yes, it is confirmed. All flights he took are on the Lufthansa.
He began and ended his zigzaging trip both in Hong Kong.
45
posted on
04/11/2003 2:42:54 AM PDT
by
FreepForever
(China is the hub of all evil)
To: Petronski
...It seems to me that SARS has been losing momentum...still growing, but at a slower rate. Wishful thinking?...
I have a feeling you're right. Exponential models are great but some people use them everywhere.
46
posted on
04/11/2003 2:53:58 AM PDT
by
Mihalis
To: Lucas1; sphinx; ALOHA RONNIE; Nachoman; VoteHarryBrowne2000; Myrddin; WhiskeyPapa; Amalie; ...
FYI: Updating from 4/10 -- the projected possible number of 4,000 cases
has happened, but it took over two cycles more than this model predicted.
1. Expect the worldwide number of SARS infected to surpass 3,000 between April 8th to April 12th.
2. Expect the number of infected to surpass 4,000 between April 11th to April 16th.
3. Expect the number of infected to surpass 5,000 between April 15th to April 19th.
4. Expect the number of infected to surpass 6,000 between April 18th to April 22nd.
I was just poking around the WHO site and remembered this email having been posted.
47
posted on
04/22/2003 10:45:12 AM PDT
by
lainie
To: lainie
Do you have any new theory based on the slowdown?
48
posted on
04/22/2003 10:52:43 AM PDT
by
TheLion
To: TheLion
No, I haven't read any good theories. I'm no scientist. I do wonder whether the reports are keeping up and how badly inaccurate 3947 is.
49
posted on
04/22/2003 11:02:22 AM PDT
by
lainie
To: Lucas1
Deloping? Not another one! Hugh, Series, Vey...
50
posted on
04/22/2003 11:05:57 AM PDT
by
Snowy
(My golden retriever can lick your honor student)
To: lainie
Do you have any idea if the 3947 number includes the people in military hospitals that China "forgot" to count early on in this situation.
Comment #52 Removed by Moderator
To: lainie
Thanks for your update, lanie. Thank God you remember this rather old post. Do keep coming back to update the numbers if necessary. Thank you!
53
posted on
04/22/2003 12:10:51 PM PDT
by
FreepForever
(China is the hub of all evil)
To: iceskater
No, I have no idea. You're referring to the news which broke over the weekend? Given that we're talking about the WHO, I find the numbers suspect to say the least -- no matter what. But it's a place to start.
54
posted on
04/22/2003 12:14:23 PM PDT
by
lainie
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-54 last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson