"Clearly, the American war planners misjudged the determination of the Iraqi forces."
Posted on 04/05/2003 3:58:30 PM PST by freeforall
Swift fall of Baghdad forecast
Western professor Salim Mansur's view is against predictions for a bloody battle.
By ELAINE SMITH, Free Press Reporter
Given reports of the surrender of 2,500 Republican Guard troops at the Baghdad airport, Salim Mansuris in predicting the swift fall of the city.
"People are making predictions of a bloody battle for Baghdad and my view is completely contrary," said Mansur, a political science professor and Middle East specialist at the University of Western Ontario.
"Baghdad will rapidly fall and the common people will come out eventually. Right now, they're scared."
Mansur called Saddam Hussein's regime fascist and said history shows such regimes aren't defended by the people.
"In Cambodia, Phnom Penh fell like a ripe fruit before the advancing Vietnamese army," he said. "The people wouldn't fight for a dictator like Pol Pot.
"This sort of fascist leader is only massive and mighty on paper. The people who are so good at creating fear have no guts to stand up and fight, so Baghdad is going to collapse."
Donald Abelson, a political science professor and specialist in U.S. foreign policy, still believes the battle for Baghdad will be prolonged and ugly.
"There will be street-to-street fighting and I think the Republican Guard will dig in," he said. "No one knows what type of weapons they have at their disposal and no one knows what Saddam is prepared to do to keep the coalition at bay.
"I doubt very much if the city will fall in the matter of a few hours or a few days."
Fellow political science professor Paul Rowe, an expert on Middle Eastern politics, said the real question is whether Saddam is actually in Baghdad.
"I expect Saddam and others have made their way out of Baghdad," he said. "For that reason, the U.S. might not take the fight for Baghdad as seriously."
Rowe predicted the next big battle would take place wherever Saddam and the regime's leadership are hiding.
"I would look for it in Tikrit, Saddam's
"Clearly, the American war planners misjudged the determination of the Iraqi forces."
I know our casualties have been relatively light; I think the ratio is something like 1 coalition death to 1,000 Iraqi deaths. Yet I still cringe over the news of each one.
My nephew is deploying for Iraq in about 2 weeks. I hope the worst is over when he gets there. He just graduated from HS last year.
Good analogy. As I recall, the Kmer Rouge continued to resist in the jungles along the Thai-Cambodian border, until they finally fizzled out.
Unfortuately for the Sadam - Fedayeen, there are no jungles in Iraq.
Mopping up the last few fantics might take awhile, but I agree with the professor that Baghdad will now go quickly.
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