Posted on 04/02/2003 6:04:49 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
DOHA, Qatar (Reuters) - U.S. forces moved to within 19 miles of the southern edge of Baghdad on Wednesday as troops launched coordinated attacks on two fronts against Iraq's Republican Guard. Following are comments from defense experts who were asked whether they believed U.S.-led forces had started a final push on Baghdad, or whether the forces would wait for reinforcements to shore up supply lines.
PAUL BEAVER, FORMER PUBLISHER OF JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY
"There is not a final push or even a first push. There is not a push to invade Baghdad... It is a standard operation -- they want to eliminate the Iraqis' potential.
"All the headlines in the papers today are hilarious. This war could go on until the autumn."
WILLIAM HOPKINSON, ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS IN LONDON
"I can see more bombardment to soften up the Republican Guard. I still think one is some little way from getting to the gates of Baghdad."
ANDREW DENISON, FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY ANALYST, TRANSATLANTIC NETWORKS
"It looks like there has been a slight pause in the movements of ground forces, but the longer you wait the more you lose politically. It seems the political pressure to go on with the offensive was rising.
"It's not quite clear why they (the Republican Guards) are sitting outside the city. However, they've had over 10 years to work out a strategy. Perhaps the idea is to maul the U.S.-led forces on the way in. It could take the wind out of the U.S. sails and boost Saddam Hussein. Cracking the Republican Guards' cohesiveness may not be easy despite the aerial bombardment.
"I think the U.S. attack has started and it won't stop and it will continue for the next 24 to 48 hours unless chemical weapons come into play. I would not imagine a race straight into Baghdad. I think we would see a pause beforehand."
OLEG FALICHEV, MILITARY COMMENTATOR FOR KRASNAYA ZVEZDA (RED STAR) ARMY NEWSPAPER IN RUSSIA
"The offensive on Baghdad has already begun. There are three circles of defense around Baghdad which go out as far as 50 to 70 km from Baghdad. The offensive has proceeded cautiously.
"There will be no quick seizure of Baghdad in any circumstance. Human factors will decide everything in the final analysis. Everything will depend on the degree with which the Iraqis resist in Baghdad. Generally speaking, the battle for Baghdad will be protracted."
FRANK UMBACH, SECURITY AND DEFENSE ANALYST AT THE GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS:
"I think we're seeing an intensification of aerial bombardment to weaken the Republican Guard around Baghdad. I think we'll also see a cautious advance of (U.S.-led) troops, balanced with a need to secure supply columns. I think we'll see for example the rings round Basra and Kerbala tightening, particularly blocking the routes out to prevent guerrilla attacks.
"I don't think we'll really see the final push on Baghdad until next week at the earliest... For example, I see the troops that were to have gone through Turkey have arrived in Kuwait with their equipment, but it doesn't appear that they will be combat ready for a few days.
"I see it as a degree of consolidation with a pushing out of the positions, such as around Kerbala and Baghdad through artillery fire, but I don't see the full offensive yet."
PAUL ROGERS, PROFESSOR OF PEACE STUDIES AT BRADFORD UNIVERSITY
"It is not the final push. The U.S. is starting to move considerable numbers of troops into northwest Iraq.
"It is possible the Americans might try a rapid strike toward Baghdad using overwhelming airpower in the next few days, but frankly they are not strong enough and need to wait for extra troops.
"They are likely to go for Baghdad within about two weeks when the troops who were originally going to Turkey arrive.
"They have been completely caught out by the amount of resistance they are meeting and a lack of uprising."
TIM RIPLEY, DEFENSE EXPERT AT LANCASTER UNIVERSITY, MONITORING THE WAR FROM QATAR FOR JANES DEFENSE WEEKLY
"What they are doing is they are destroying (the Republican Guard) a division at a time in deliberate attacks. Pound them from the air, then a ground attack, then move on and take on another division.
"There's not enough to take them all on simultaneously. So this is a systematic, meat grinder effect."
"There's not enough to take them all on simultaneously. So this is a systematic, meat grinder effect."
That's the one I'm buying.
I'm thinking an industrial grade plastic shredder would be more appropriate.
General Matthew Ridgway on the Korean War stated, "We are not interested in real estate. We are interested only in inflicting maximum casualities on the enemy with minimum losses to ourselves."
"Armchair generals, pundits and analysts have not seen the battle plans and have grown most tiresome. Many have an agenda that is not in the best interests of the country. Me, I trust the post-operational reports and facts as they become known."
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