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WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF SARS? ONE VIRUS, TWO VIRUSES WORKING IN CONCERT, OR A DETERMINANT UNKNOWN
PRO MED - WHO ^
| 03-25-03
Posted on 03/26/2003 7:58:10 AM PST by Mother Abigail
Q. The question about the 2 viruses having been, or 2 families of viruses having been associated with this disease or with this outbreak. You said it was not normal, if I'm not mistaken. Could you give us an idea of whether or not it's possible for a single disease to be caused by 2 viruses or is it more likely that at least one of the samples might not be related to SARS?
A. Dr Klaus Stohr: Speaking as a scientist, we are looking at a very interesting and a fascinating situation. Looking from the point of infectious disease control, we are a bit puzzled because we are not only dealing apparently with one pathogen but with 2.
The reason why we believe that both pathogens should be given equal attention is that there is consistent finding of both pathogens in individual patients or of either of the pathogens in other patients.
What we are seeing actually are 3 hypotheses.
The first hypothesis is that one of the viruses, for instance the corona virus, causes the disease, and that might be a new corona virus.
The second hypothesis is that the paramyxoviruses cause the disease and if that was the case, it's certainly also a new paramyxovirus.
The third hypothesis, very obviously, is that these 2 pathogens have to come together to cause this very severe outbreak. One of the viruses, for instance the coronavirus, is known to live in immune cells, cells which are important for defense against infection. So what one could hypothesize is that this coronavirus destroys or at least diminishes the immunity in the patient so that the second virus has practically an open door to go in and to sicken the patient beyond what this virus would be able to do normally.
Dr David Heymann: Let me just add to that: there could be a fourth hypothesis. It is possible that both are common viruses: one found in all the patients, even though it's not causing disease, and the other will be the disease-causing agent, so they could both be found but not be related in any way, just there by chance. So it's a very complicated issue that's being sorted out.
TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: sars
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To: JasonC
Canadian Province Sees More Cases of Deadly Virus
58 minutes ago
By Jeffrey Hodgson
TORONTO (Reuters) - Health officials in Ontario, Canada's most populous province, identified on Tuesday another eight probable cases of the deadly and mysterious SARS pneumonia virus that has killed at least 23 people worldwide.
Province health officials restricted access to the Toronto hospital where some of the first Canadian cases appeared and said they may quarantine the homes of several hundred people who could have been exposed to the illness.
A Toronto school was ordered closed until March 31 after it was learned there were a number of students with unexplained fevers consistent with symptoms of the illness, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
Ontario has now seen 18 probable cases and five suspected cases of the illness. Three of the probable cases have died.
Another 25 people, including nurses and other healthcare staff, are being monitored closely for symptoms. The healthcare staff and their families are being told to stay in their homes for up to 10 days.
To: All
Keep in mind the 5-7, and up to 10 day incubation period.
People on flights, tours, could be nessled in the comfy of their little homes before they knew..
"Ah Dang Linda, that guy at work gave me his cold."
42
posted on
03/26/2003 9:02:30 AM PST
by
CygnusXI
(n00b)
Comment #43 Removed by Moderator
To: maestro
Isn't that special...
Barring a miracle, look for air travel to be severely disrupted in the next few weeks...
To: Mother Abigail
Chinese authorities said the disease has killed at least 34 people in China since November — 31I believe those Chinese figures are only for the period ending Feb 28.
45
posted on
03/26/2003 9:08:30 AM PST
by
per loin
To: gcochran
nine tourists apparently came down with the deadly disease after another passenger infected them on a flight to Beijing. Why didn't every passenger get it? If it's so easily spread.
The World Health Organization insisted air travel is safe but said its scientists are investigating each case to make sure the disease is not spread through ventilation.
From what I've seen and read (and mind you, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if more information changes this), this disease is spread through close contact. Until they verify that the disease can be spread through a ventilation system, then I'll really worry.
46
posted on
03/26/2003 9:12:37 AM PST
by
TheBigB
(How do I set a laser printer to stun?)
To: All
colloidal silver. read about it. make it. take it. do it now.
To: Doctor Stochastic
To: per loin
Thank you,
Are we getting any better numbers now?
To: Mother Abigail
Bump...
To: Mother Abigail
Not yet. Right now the cases in Hong Kong are increasing by about 10% per day. If the rate of increase in China were the same, we would have about 8000 cases in China by now.
51
posted on
03/26/2003 9:27:01 AM PST
by
per loin
Comment #52 Removed by Moderator
To: gcochran
If the _average_ infected person in a crowded situation like an airplane infects six other people, we're in trouble, because each of _those_ six people may infect a number of others - on another airplane, in a bus, on a subway, perhaps in a school or workplace. If, in the world we live in, considering the _way_ we live in it... Yes, a scary scenario. But I also see a lot of use of the word "suspected" cases in these stories. How many of them are regular flu? Or bad colds? People are panicking and keeping their kids home, shuttering up their doors, etc. IMO, this is exactly what the media wants; "Ooh, ooh, look...a new virus! Be afraid! Be very afraid!! Watch our news! Read our paper!" Horseradish and bunkum. I'll say again...in two or three weeks, you'll barely hear about this.
53
posted on
03/26/2003 9:35:33 AM PST
by
TheBigB
(How do I set a laser printer to stun?)
To: Mother Abigail
The third hypothesis, very obviously, is that these 2 pathogens have to come together to cause this very severe outbreak.
Reminds me of the old Certs mint commercial.....
“It’s two…two… two bugs in one.”
To: Eric Cassano
This seems akin to having Clinton on Gore on the same ticket....
55
posted on
03/26/2003 9:59:43 AM PST
by
tracer
(/b>)
To: Eric Cassano
Haha Good one.
Also...
"Double your sickness with Doublestrain bug!!"
56
posted on
03/26/2003 10:04:09 AM PST
by
CygnusXI
(n00b)
To: Eric Cassano
Ontario warns of 'health emergency'
Health minister says SARS must be stopped
CASSANDRA SZKLARSKI
CANADIAN PRESS
The Ontario government has declared a "health emergency" because of the outbreak of the deadly SARS disease that has forced the quarantine of entire households and the closure of one Toronto school and a hospital emergency room.
- Health Minister Tony Clement said today he has activated an action group under Ontario's emergency powers legislation to try to stop the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
- "We're taking this very seriously," he said. "By characterizing it as a health emergency, we are giving ourselves the powers that we need and the information that we need at the most appropriate time to ensure that we can contain this disease as soon as possible."
- The measure includes a command centre staffed 24 hours a day to co-ordinate all information from hospitals and health workers on SARS, also known as atypical pneumonia.
To: per loin
Three others died in Beijing this month [Mar 2003], the city said Wednesday [25 Mar 2003].
Three people have died of atypical pneumonia in Beijing, and five others are suffering from the disease.
The Beijing municipal government said two of those who died came from Shanxi province and the other was infected in Hong Kong.
It said a taskforce and special medical teams had been set up to investigate the ourbreak.
It noted that two medical workers who had been in contact with patients in Beijing had been isolated, after they showed signs of the illness.
However, it said the virus had not spread to the public.
To: gcochran
SARS is running about a 3% mortality rate: that's bad. You are right: 3% would be bad.
However, it is too soon to know the actual number. I don't know where you got the 3%, but it may be from looking at the number of deaths so far versus the number of suspected cases in total.
If so, that is NOT the long-term mortality rate. Right now, most of the people who have been infected are still sick. It is impossible to compute the mortality rate until we know how many of the ones who are still sick will actually get better.
A sobering indicator is a comment from "Mother Abigail" in a thread a couple of days ago. She stated that the number of people dying is about equal to the number of people being released from the hospital in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that it is still very very early, so this statistic could easily skew in either direction. However, it is certainly enough to make a 3% mortality rate look optimistic.
Another factor making statistics at this point almost meaningless is the difficulty making a definitive diagnosis. Pneumonia has always had a number of victims who never have the specific cause of their distress identified. If these people get included in the SARS statistics by accident, then the statistical results will be skewed even further.
Another factor that could skew the results is the possibility (HOPE!) that the disease will burn itself out. In other words, it may become less deadly as it works itself through the population.
In short, it is too early to know what the statistics will look like long-term.
If mortality turns out to be high, a crucial question is how well it will spread once our respective governments start making a concerted effort to contain it. It will be a very good sign if the quarantine approach currently being tried in Singapore works.
59
posted on
03/26/2003 10:28:50 AM PST
by
EternalHope
(Chirac is funny, France is a joke.)
To: EternalHope
A sobering indicator is a comment from "Mother Abigail" in a thread a couple of days ago. She stated that the number of people dying is about equal to the number of people being released from the hospital in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that it is still very very early, so this statistic could easily skew in either direction. However, it is certainly enough to make a 3% mortality rate look optimistic. Have people been released? I've been wondering about this and haven't seen anything about people going home.
Another factor that could skew the results is the possibility (HOPE!) that the disease will burn itself out. In other words, it may become less deadly as it works itself through the population.
Is there a precedent for this; a disease that has gotten weaker as it progressed?
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